PGA TOUR: The PGA Tour’s West Coast Swing gets underway this week in La Quinta, California, where we get a new title sponsor and two new courses for an event that has been around for nearly a half-century. What was most recently known as the Humana Challenge has now morphed into the CareerBuilder Challenge (ahh, capitalism!), and while LaQuinta Country Club will still be used, it will only be used for one round, as opposed to two, and the new “host course” (where everyone will play on Sunday) is PGA West’s TPC Stadium Course, a layout that hasn’t been part of this tournament’s rotation since 1987. Also new to the event is PGA West’s Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course, and gone are the Nicklaus Private and Palmer Private courses, which are also part of that PGA West compound just outside Palm Springs (a worthwhile golf vacation, btw).
The TPC Stadium Course (not to be confused with the one in Florida… I know. Seems pretty stupid to me too) is a Pete Dye design that was shelved after ’87 on account of it being too difficult (this tournament is traditionally a fan-friendly birdie-fest), but ten holes have been shortened this week and the course will measure just 7,113 yards. Like most Dye designs, it is extraordinarily penal in spots and puts a premium on “target golf”-style ball-striking. Significantly, the two “new” courses this week were used in the finals of PGA Tour Qualifying School from 2008-2012. No fewer than 69 players in the field competed in at least one of those Qualifying Schools, with 21 of them (Todd, Noh, Lyle, Harman, Beljan, Castro, McGirt, Owen, Summerhays, Huh, Knost, Lee, Horschel, Compton, Jones, Ernst, Langley, Kim, Norlander, Reavie, Reed) earning their Tour cards.
Patrick Reed (10.5) heads the market at BETDAQ, and with good reason: Reed has placed in the top-10 in each of his last seven events and has three runner-up finishes in his past four starts. As if that wasn’t enough, he won this event back in 2014, setting a tournament scoring record in the process, and he has experience on the two courses that have been added to the rotation thanks to his run through the 2012 Qualifying School. His only real negative is his price, but that’s enough for some… including me.
We’re off to a cracking start to 2016, as short-odds choice Snedeker (rec’d at 25.0) lost in a playoff in last week’s Sony Open while young Zac Blair, recommended at 128.0, finished just a shot out. Both the tournament match bets came home as well, so it was a profitable little weekend for the good guys. Let’s hope we can keep it going…
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Matt Kuchar (24.0)- Kuchar struggled during the middle part of the 2015 season but he began to come around in the fall, recording top-10 finishes in September’s Deutche Bank Championship and the season-ending Tour Championship. In last week’s Sony Open he really got it rolling after an indifferent opening round, firing a 3rd-round 62 and going on to finish 13th. Most importantly, he nearly always plays well in this event (we’ll call it “LaQuinta”, as its formal name will surely be something else next year), finishing runner-up to Bill Haas last year and placing in the top-25 in each of his last seven appearances. Two new courses shouldn’t change things much, as Kuchar is just the type of consistent ball-striker you want on a Pete Dye, “hit it where I say and only where I say” type of layout. Back him with confidence this week.
Kevin Na (36.0)- Na has established himself as one of the premier players on the PGA Tour and he looked to be in good form at the Sony last week, shooting 66-65-68 over the final three rounds to finish 28th. He’s a West Coast guy who’s made some of his biggest paychecks in the Golden State, and LaQuinta is a yearly stop. Though he’s never contended in this tournament, he nearly always makes the cut (5 of the last 6 years, to be exact) and has found his way inside the top-10, so there’s nothing in his past record here that would hold you back. Watching Na over the last few months, though, you get the feeling that “past record” is about to become irrelevant with him as he continues to improve and contend in some if golf’s biggest events. Don’t be surprised if he makes some serious noise this week and beyond.
Greg Owen (235.0)- Well I don’t claim any inside information on Owen, as I did with last week’s long-odds gem, but there are three significant things he has going for him here: 1. He finished 5th at the Sony Open last week, shooting an impressive 64 in the final round, 2. He earned his PGA Tour card at the 2011 Qualifying School, meaning he has more positive experience with the two new courses in the rotation than almost anyone else in the field this week, and 3. he’s priced at a whopping 235.0. Maybe I’m a bit too simple for all this, but that sounds like a worthwhile investment to me. He’s worth whatever you’ve got rattling around in your pocket, anyway.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Jason Dufner (1.91) vs. Webb Simpson (1.91)
Simpson showed signs of life with a 13th-place finish at last week’s Sony Open, but that’s really been the only glimmer of light in what has been a pretty dark few months for the young North Carolinian. Jason Dufner, on the other hand, seems to have fully recovered from a soul-crushing situation that sent his career into a tailspin, recording top-10s in each of his last two starts and briefly contending at the Sony last week. Recommendation: Dufner at 1.91
Marc Leishman (1.91) vs. Charles Howell III (1.91)
Leishman is an ascendant player who could be primed for a big year, but it’s tough for me to bet against Charles Howell in this spot. Not only has Howell been a veritable ATM machine in this tournament throughout his career (I know there are two new courses now, but still…), he’s playing really well at the moment, finishing 17th or better in each of his last four starts, including a T13 last week. Recommendation: Howell at 1.91
