IT’S A RECORD LAYS SEQUENCE: Victoria Pendleton stopped a big, big lays run by Daqman yesterday – didn’t she do well! – but he still comes out with a massive 90% strike rate. He took some big-odds risks and wants now to concentrate on his Cheltenham Festival record (22 consecutive).
19.0 SOUTHWELL ‘HIDDEN HORSE’: It’s been all about sequence betting for the last two weeks: on bankers, naps, daily bets and staking issues, and now lays. Tomorrow he’s looking at the Pricewise challenge. Meanwhile, one of his favourite sequences, or winning streaks, is the trainer in form. That produces a 19.0 ‘hidden horse’ bet at Southwell today.
LUDLOW ONE-TWO WITH THE NAP? At Ludlow two favourites are connected; if his nap wins, it boosts his next bet.
RECORD 45 DAQMAN LAYS UP OUT OF 50
Best results yet but daring stuff. Daqman has broken his own record for a sequence of lays: 45 correct out of 50 since October 7, a strike rate of 90%.
But he was lucky to get away with defying some huge odds which would have holed the cargo of riches below the water line. Just two winners against him at 7-1 and 5-1 (see full list of results below) caused some heavy bailing out.
But had you made just even money on every successful lay, the profit to 20-point level stakes was 570 points, a 57% ROI (return on investment).
Daqman found 17 losing favourites but was only able to ‘convert’ (pick the winner of the same race) six times; just the half-dozen double-whammys in the autumn-winter lays romp.
His previous record sequence was 35 winning lays out of 40 for an 87.5% strike rate.
His verdict on bankers, naps and daily selections has been given in the last few days. He says of the lays return: ’I still want to beat my 16 successive winning lays at Cheltenham, an unbeaten sequence extending over three seasons of the festival (2008-10).
‘Come to that, I would also be well satisfied with 22 Cheltenham festival wins (March 2009). My final assessment will be about the Pricewise challenge, with new rules starting at this year’s festival.’ Here is the record sequence of lays:
WIN Bathos (unplaced 4-1)
WIN Grendisar (4th 9-4 favourite)
WIN Zebstar, place lay (unplaced 12-1)
WIN Cameraman (2nd 9-4 favourite)
WIN Gleneagles (unplaced 9-4)
WIN Wild Storm (unplaced 5-2 favourite)
WIN Fame Game (unplaced 4-1 favourite)
WIN Alfie Spinner (unplaced 14-1)
WIN Kings Palace, place lay (unplaced 13-2 favourite)
WIN Mick Jazz, place lay (pulled up 6-1 jt favourite)
WIN Gunner Fifteen (unplaced 13-8 favourite)
WIN Big Whiskey (2nd 4-1)
WIN Upepito (2nd 5-1 favourite)
Lost Aloomomo (won 5-1)
Lost No More Heroes (won 13-8 favourite)
WIN Sunbaked (unplaced 5-2 favourite)
WIN Humour (unplaced 6-1)
WIN Rocket Ronnie (unplaced 8-1)
WIN Appleberry (unplaced 25-1)
WIN Sexy Secret (unplaced 33-1)
WIN Brise Vendeenne (3rd 9-2 jt favourite)
WIN Savello (unplaced 7-1)
WIN Cernunnos (2nd 6-1)
WIN Call To Order (3rd 11-4)
WIN Top Priority (unplaced 8-1)
WIN Polarbrook (2nd 10-1)
WIN Desert Joe (unplaced 100-30 favourite)
WIN Tambura (3rd 9-4 favourite)
WIN Katgary (3rd 5-1)
WIN Abidjan (unplaced 5-2 favourite)
WIN Champagne West (2nd 8-1)
WIN Mango Cap (3rd 10-11 favourite)
WIN Collodi (unplaced 5-1)
WIN Red Dragon place (unplaced 14-1)
WIN Winter Hey Lane (unplaced 16-1)
WIN Pietrafiore (unplaced 100-30)
WIN Kalkrand place (unplaced 7-1)
Lost Le Prezien (won 13-8 favourite)
WIN Tippmanboy (2nd 9-4 favourite)
WIN Lake View Lad (fell 7-2)
WIN Oakley Girl (2nd 8-13 favourite)
WIN Sire De Grugy (2nd 11-4)
WIN Megara (2nd 11-4)
WIN Turn Over Sivola (unplaced 9-2)
WIN Mogestic (pulled up 4-1)
Lost As De Fer (won 7-1)
WIN Tambura (2nd 9-2 favourite)
WIN Peace And Co (3rd 4-7 favourite)
WIN Tea For Two (3rd 7-4)
Lost Pacha Du Polder (won 5-4)
IT’S TOMPKINS TIME WITH 100% SEQUENCE
Another sequence secret. You need the form of trainers on your side, or else – like Paul Nicholls in December and January – they could blow an unbeaten run for you.
The worst-kept secret is that certain trainers have specific winning streaks – sequences highlighted in the Racing Post’s Trainerspot – and then they go quiet again.
Yes, you’ll have the big names featured near the top of the table, showing their consistency. But what you’re looking for is the ‘sequence stable’, the smaller yard which has short, sharp bursts of bounty. In statistical terms, we’re talking clusters.
Two of my ‘cluster’ stables are those of Gay Kelleway and Mark Tompkins. Gay is on a winning streak right now but I missed her big one, when Lightscameraction won the hot sprint at Lingfield last week. Well done, Pricewise: credit where it’s due.
But Tompkins, right now showing form figures of 130101123, and getting 100% from every one of his horses, has an intriguing runner today in Prayer Time.
4.00 Southwell Prayer Time won here at Southwell a year ago after a bad run in February. Ditto: a stinker on his reappearance, again in February.
Can Prayer Time spring back to life a second time, Tompkins only remaining runner until the weekend?
Tompkins says that Prayer Time takes the Mickey, but 19.0 offers on BETDAQ this morning give us the chance of laughing last. Several bookies were 12-1 at the time. I’m hoping there’s a gamble, and we can do a bit of trading with our ‘hidden horse.’
GO CHASING FAVOURITES AT LUDLOW..
Better horses have come out to play. Six class-3 events today, most of them at Ludlow, one of the few right-handed tracks; so keep your eye on that.
Favourites have a 62% strike rate in chase races yet show a decent profit to level stakes.
2.30 Ludlow What Happens Now is Don McCain’s only contender of the day but he has a lousy strike-rate at Ludlow (5%); has had 35 runners there over the last two years without a winner.
Going For Broke was a gamble went wrong at Aintree in October. Horses that do well first time (won a bumper) but sweat badly afterwards are frightened animals.
Going For Broke has had a holiday and could have ‘forgotten’ the lung-bursting pain of trying to carry connections cash at full gallop, or maybe not.
Minellacelebration is a CD winner but that was a conditionals’ race and you can’t be sure of the validity of the form. However, a front-runner, if 5.5 offers or similar were taken, gives you chance of a trade.
I prefer the consistent Zanstra (3.2 on BETDAQ) for the Cue Card stable. Zanstra hit a flat spot when winning at Huntingdon but Richard Johnson is just the man to iron it out.
3.05 Ludlow When they put fences in front of novices, be careful with your cash. Every one of the runners in this has these words somewhere in the form of their three last starts:
‘Blundered, not fluent, mistake, hesitant, jumped left (particularly relevant here), hit fence, fell, slow leap.’
Brownville, Grimley Girl, Top Cat Henry, Truckers Highway and Uhlan Bute have all led or raced freely.
So I’m happy with the favourite (remember that 62% strike rate in chases), Hollywoodien, a 4.1 chance according to offers on BETDAQ, and a good scorer at Ascot before meeting a quality Ditcheat winner on the last day. Could boost that horse in the next.
NEXIUS FORM COULD BE BOOSTED FOR THIS
3.40 Ludlow (Forbra Gold Cup) Here’s the horse that beat Hollywoodien on the last day, Nexius. He’s two from two right-handed but steps up in trip today.
One thing in his favour is that it’s virtually a veterans’ race without him, with four of his rivals having reached double figures. There’s been no such winner in the decade.
A top trainer usually brings a younger horse to this Gold Cup trough and gobbles up the local prizemoney, unless you fancy Venetia Williams (horses).
And one of these days I’m going to have to start trusting P Nicholls’ judgment again, particularly with the market shouting Nexius as clear favourite (3.05).
But I shall spare a pound for another outsider today: Malcolm Jefferson (can’t see that he’s ever been down these parts before) saddles Sun Cloud (10.5 offers).
If Sun Cloud repeated his November second at Haydock in a class-2 handicap, he’d get back to winning form in this one.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength)
BET 6pts win ZANSTRA (2.30 Ludlow)
BET 8pts win (nap) HOLLYWOODIEN (3.05 Ludlow)
BET 5pts win NEXIUS, and 2pts win and place SUN CLOUD (3.40 Ludlow)
BET 1pt win and place PRAYER TIME (4.00 Southwell)
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