‘ROXY’ MUSIC TO DAQMAN’S EARS: Daqman got back to his usual two winners a day yesterday, with only one loser from a trio of bets. Both scorers were 6-4. His nap, Roxyfet (WON 6-4) took an early race at Lingfield and Eljaddaaf (WON 6-4) cashed in at Kempton.
CHELTENHAM COUNTDOWN: DAY 3: Today Daqman puts the spotlight on five races due to be run on Day 3 at Cheltenham next week, so it’s a Thursday stats-and-facts look at next Thursday’s card.
CAUSE OF ANTE-POST ‘OVERS’: This morning’s news that Kim Muir favourite, Our Father, is out of the race sees Daqman’s 11.0 ante-post bet, Cause Of Causes, made market leader on BETDAQ, giving him another trade situation with the ‘overs.’
IS THIS THE ROAD TO CHELTENHAM RICHES?
1.30 Cheltenham, Thursday (JLT Novices’ Chase) The stats say we were right to take Bristol De Mai at 9.3 on BETDAQ. So does the market: he’s now around 5.0.
SPOTLIGHT: Bristol De Mai His main rivals in the betting are Outlander and More Of That but both are eight years old, a ripe old age for winning any novices’ race.
We saw earlier in the week that youth also applies to the other championship novice chases, the Arkle (Tuesday) and RSA (Wednesday).
2.10 Cheltenham, Thursday (Pertemps Final) Though their weights have been hugely different – reflecting the variable quality of the race each year – the official ratings of the winners of this show that 132-142 have won eight out of 10.
It’s worth concentrating your efforts on the 27 that qualify from the 55 acceptors. Distance winners are also seven from 10, which gives you a hard focus of only 12 probables.
SPOTLIGHT: Oscar Sam. Just six of the 12 stats high are fancied in the betting: Arpege d’Alene, If In Doubt, Mall Dini, Missed Approach, Saddlers Encore and Oscar Sam, who is best value on BETDAQ.
He’s 12-1 in several places with bookmakers but 18.5 on the exchange, though still engaged in the Coral Cup. Watch out for the decs.
2.50 Cheltenham, Thursday (Ryanair Chase) Five of the last six winners have been rated 166-169, very tight parameters broken last year by a 161.
But he was the first in seven seasons not to have run in the King George at Kempton Park in the December.
Vautour and Al Ferof ran second and third to Cue Card at Kempton this time around, off 171 and 165 respectively.
SPOTLIGHT: Road To Riches This column is on Road To Riches at 13.5 – now around 7.6; has been 5.7 – which you may already have traded. He is currently logged as having a rating of 163.
3.30 Cheltenham, Thursday (World Hurdle) Thistlecrack remains bits of odds against on BETDAQ without Annie Power (due to switch to the Champion Hurdle), but a similar price WITH Annie Power in the vast majority of books.
When Annie Power is dropped form their markets, Thistlecrack is sure to go odds on. Would have to emulate Big Buck’s, the only odds-on World-beater in 20 years.
SPOTLIGHT: Thistlecrack has won the two big stepping-stones to this, the Long Walk and Cleeve hurdles, to complete a winter hat-trick. Both are top guides producing, respectively, seven winners this century and 10 winners since 1993.
5.30 Cheltenham, Thursday (Kim Muir) Another race which seemingly goes to a tight ratings band (six of the last seven winners scored off 137-142) but, in fact, so many horses are packed close together in this handicap that this stat rules out only the top half-dozen or so.
SPOTLIGHT: Cause Of Causes We’re already on the 2015 NH Chase winner in this race, Cause Of Causes, at 11.0.
And last night’s news that the Kim Muir favourite, Our Father, is ruled out of the race, produced the knock-on effect of making Causes joint market leader.
LAD TAKEN TO BEAT ANOTHER PIPE RAIDER
3.05 Carlisle David Pipe is spilling the petrol. He’s taken six horses to Yorkshire and all points North in the last fortnight and come up with returns of 1004U3.
Now he sends one of his most enigmatic old nags (I resisted other four-letter words) all the way to Carlisle from the West Country.
Yes, I’m speaking through my wallet. Gevrey Chambertin has cost me a few quid – mainly in his failed chasing career – and a bottle or two of red, red wine (all I can do I’ve done; but memories won’t go).
In fact, Gevrey has fair form for this over hurdles, has won on heavy ground and is claimed off here, putting him in the frame, surely.
But would you bet on it? He was beaten a total of 39 lengths in two races BEFORE he won at Lingfield in December and has been 77 lengths in total off the winner in three races AFTER.
Jonjo O’Neill (Cloudy Copper) is still struggling for form (23 losers from 23 runners in the last fortnight) with time running out before Cheltenham.
Kerry Lee, who has had such a great run with her stayers, now seems to be running her losers: Knock A Hand has completed only once in five starts and first-time visors are substituted for blinkers.
Spanish Fleet has first-time blinkers but it’s a long way back to his last success when he beat Pistol, giving him 15lb, in November, 2014, on today’s course but over shorter.
He’s 13lb better here but Pistol has been a big improver since and, right now, is going for a Carlisle hat-trick, albeit stepped up in trip.
But, thanks to Gevrey Chambertin’s presence, Isaacstown Lad – beaten twice since being raised to class 2 – can drop back to his winning grade off a similar mark. I took 3.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
TOUMAR’S THE NAP FOR IN-FORM VARIAN
6.50 Chelmsford The Racing Post database has it wrong. Arnold Lane is down as a distance winner with a ‘D’ by his name on the card, whereas a few yards short of 7.5f at Chester is his nearest victory to today’s mile. In fact, he hasn’t raced over 1m since 2012.
Brigladorio has won only at 7f but was not disgraced in a Ladbrokes mile handicap at Lingfield at the end of January.
Abbey Angel didn’t much like Lingfield on the last day, seemingly preferring the softer surfaces of Wolver and here at Chelmsford, but the handicapper may have caught up with her for now.
Revolutionist completed a hat-trick when scoring in a class 4 at Wolver in October but flopped when moved up in grade. However, he’s won twice after a break, and his stable is in form: 4.4 taken on BETDAQ.
The handicapper keeps on being kind to old Loyalty, and Loyalty keeps on taking advantage. He could be thereabouts again.
But there’s not much between Loyalty, Abbey Angel and Jodie’s Jem on revised marks from collateral form.
Back up to a mile, CD-winner Slovak may still be improving for James Tate, whose current form figures are 12001, and win and place at 8.8 on BETDAQ this morning was inviting.
Mange All – one run back after serious injury – has spent most of his handicap career in class 2, including fourth in the Silver Cambridgeshire and fifth in the Lincoln for Willie Haggas.
It will be interesting to see if his new trainer, Charlie Wallis, can hold him together. Haggas let him go.
7.20 Chelmsford I was surprised that the Sea The Stars filly Toumar was odds against this morning (2.65 on BETDAQ as I write).
She didn’t beat much when landing the odds at Wolverhampton, and her 1,000 Guineas entry looks quaint, but she should manage this, with Roger Varian’s stable in great form (current figures 11244113).
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.5pts win ISAACSTOWN LAD (3.05 Carlisle)
BET 5pts win REVOLUTIONIST, and 2pts win and place SLOVAK (7.50 Chelmsford)
BET 8pts win (nap) TOUMAR (7.20 Chelmsford)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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