PROFORM STATS: In a new BETDAQ TIPS feature we join forces with our friends at ProForm to bring you the key statistical positives and negatives ahead of this afternoon’s racing. The best bets of the day (including a BETDAQ LAY) are nominated at the end.
Main meeting – Sandown
Positives:
2-00: Nicky Henderson has a good record at Sandown, he currently has a 29% strike rate over hurdles from a 100 runner sample, resulting in a profitable P&L backing each runner blind too.
It’s worth noting also that Nico De Boinville has a 28%+ strike rate when riding for Henderson, also resulting a profitable long-term record. They team up with Divine Spear – currently trading around the 13.0 mark.
An outsider to also consider is Tanarpino for Jennie Candlish, who is in great form, currently trading around 40.0.
3-10: Whittington and Sheehan have an impressive 34% strike rate when they team up, Affaire D’honneur is favourite at around 5.2. Whittington is in decent form too, winning with two of his last five runners.
4-20: Kerry Lee and Jamie Moore have a 24% strike rate together, a good bit higher than the expected factoring in the odds. And Jamie Moore has a 34% strike rate around Sandown. Kylemore Lough is trading around 1.9.
Negatives:
2-00: Harry Skelton has only rode one winner from 19 rides at Sandown, not a huge difference compared to the expected but something to keep an eye on. The trainer of his mount, Two Taffs, has gone 14 runners without a winner also, when the expected was 4+, so that has to be a worry. Dan Skelton has had 5 winners in the last 14 days, however the expected was above 10.
4-20: Paul Nicholls and Sam Twiston-Davies have only managed two winners from 20 runners at Sandown, while Sam Twiston-Davies has had three winners from 33 rides over fences here. In both cases the expected winners was higher, so something to keep an eye on. Dormello Mo is 3.5.
4-55: Sam Twiston-Davies teams up with Nigel Twiston-Davies, who himself has only had one winner from 33 runners – obviously the profitability is poor following him and the expected higher. Maybe this has affected Sam’s record also. Minella Reception is trading around 2.4 at the moment, and maybe there are better 2.4 shots around today.
Other courses:
Positives:
Chepstow (2-25 and 4-45): Henry Oliver and Jeremiah McGrath have formed a good partnership, and are currently going at a 32% strike rate. They team up with Distant Rain and Whispering Harry, both trading at double figures – they could our run their odds and be worth checking out in the place markets. Whispering Harry should like the ground too, winning six times from 17 on this type of ground, above expected.
Chepstow 1-50: Nigel Hawke has a 30% strike rate at Chepstow, his tough stayer Nail’M should be in the mix here at 8.0.
Limerick 5-35: Willie and Patrick Mullins team up with Augustin in the bumper here, they’ve won on 9 of the 16 times they’ve teamed up in bumpers at Limerick. Maybe Augustin isn’t a stable star, it’s trading around 3.5 at the moment.
Wolverhampton 4-00: George Baker and Pat Cosgrave have an excellent record at Wolverhampton, their strike rate together is 32% and they’ve had over double the expected winners. Maybe Intibaah can out-run odds of 40.0+.
Wolverhampton 3-25: Ian Williams obviously likes to put up Adam Kirby on a fancied one, they’ve teamed up to ride 7 winners from 13 rides. Midtech Star is 3.0.
Negatives:
Chepstow 4-10: Nick Slatter has rode just one winner from 54 rides at around this distance, 2m4f. His expected was higher (over 4) and this is the worst record at a distance of any jockey riding at the course today. He rides Jester Jet, trading around 6.0.
Ayr (3-30 and 5-15): George Bewley is having a poor run at the moment, going over 30 runners without a winner. He saddles Innis Shannon and Grays Choice, both trading around 8.0.
Wolverhampton 1-40: Conor Dore’s strike rate at Wolverhampton is only 6%. He saddles the favourite Elusivity, trading around 3.4.
BEST BETS
Betdaq BACK of the day on stats: Midtech Star 3-25 Wolverhampton, at around 3.0.
Next best: Kylemore Lough 4-20 Sandown, at around 1.9.
Betdaq LAY of the day on stats: Minella Reception 4-55 Sandown, at around 2.4.
£25 IN FREE BETS
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