NOW TWO NAPS UP OUT OF THREE: Tangramm (WON 11-8) landed Daqman’s second winning nap in three days, following Roxyfet (WON 6-4) on Wednesday, and also made it three consecutive days with at least one winner, all in keeping with his planned sequences.
IMPERIAL MEASURE OF PRICEWISE: No better Daqman winning sequence than the feature races, where he leads Pricewise 29-12 this season (275-108 overall), and they clash again today in the 2.00 and 3.10 Sandown, which is the Imperial Cup, and the 2.15 Wolverhampton, which is the Ladbrokes’ Lincoln Trial.
DOUBLE VISION IN BIG HANDICAPS: There’s something highly unusual about the markets for the two big handicaps at Sandown today.. both morning favourites were maidens! Daqman describes it as ‘quite exceptional double vision by punters preferring potential to winning ability.’
CHELTENHAM SUNDAY AND MONDAY: The real bankers at Cheltenham. Concluding Daqman’s articles on why Pricewise isn’t good for you. Beat the layers and get a double bonus on Festival winners. Daqman’s betting strategy for the meeting.
FRONT-RUNNING WAY TO 50 POINTS PROFIT
2.00 Sandown (Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final) Paul Nicholls (Alcala) and Nicky Henderson (Divine Spear) have shared four of the last six winners, but only one of them was favourite, interrupting a string of SPs from 8-1 to 20-1.
The snag for punters is that there is no specific route to success here, four of the last six winners coming from lower class, two from Graded novices.
Three of four recent scorers already given a mark were in the 128-132 ratings range, which is 11st 5lb to 11st 9lb today.
But the best guide is that your selection must have won or been placed over 20f or more, or won at 19f., and the seven distance winners in today’s field should share at least some of the money.
This stat potentially rules out Flashjack, Barney Dwan, Two Taffs, Chic Theatre, Ballypoint and Morthanalegend.
In fact, Ballypoint, Dark Flame, Morthanalegend and Two Taffs are hurdles maidens, and it is rare for such limited form to triumph in a race like this.
Ballypoint was second over 19 furlongs but there’s no reason why he should turn round the form with the winner, Will O’The West ,on worse terms.
The stats negatives leave us with Wade Harper, Point The Way, Western Cape and Potters Corner in the ratings slot of those ‘most likely to’.
Form boosts have come from races won by trail-blazing Point The Way and his trainer, Brian Ellison, is in absolutely cracking form, with 14 from his last 16 runners finishing in the first four, six of them winners. This is his only runner today and he has only one tomorrow (wait for it!).
You can either call this a weak field because there is so little solid form, or you can call it unexposed, and start guessing at ‘potential’ winners.
But when you have prices like Point The Way’s 14.5 BETDAQ offers and the 16.5 Will O’The West, your decision is made for you.
Win or lose, Point The Way’s front-running should produce some trading moments. He’s certainly capable of stringing out this field.
Two Taffs has that ‘dark horse’ look and is a long way clear favourite here, but we know what happens to favourites in this race!
CUP A CHELTENHAM MEASURE FOR McMANUS
3.10 Sandown (Imperial Cup) This looks like being fast and furious with Rayvin Black, Solstice Star, Ebony Express and Allee Bleue all front runners in the past.
One horse set 11st 12lb last year pushed the rest of the field below 11st and the (tautological) ‘exact same’ has happened again today. Except that the top weight, Rayvin Black, is claimed off to give him a bit better chance.
Rayvin won the Kingwell on the last day after running up to The New One in the Champion Hurdle trial and then to Triumph hope Connetable over today’s CD in a Listed.
He has obviously improved since runner-up in this race last year, but his 24lb weight reverse with the winner that day, Ebony Express, gives you some idea of his task.
Ebony Express has done nothing since and is now festooned with tongue-tie and cheekpieces to try to resurrect him but the ground is not in his favour.
There’s a real chance that For Good Measure, half-brother to Balthazar King, can improve on his smooth back-to-back successes to play a leading role in this, though Richard Johnson seems to prefer Allee Bleue,
Yet Allee Bleue has not been raised from the rating the handicapper first thought of when he saw him in novice hurdles. As a front-runner lacking substance to his form, he looks vulnerable.
Rayvin Black is still best of the ravers in my book, but can he keep it up, 12lb higher than when winning over CD in January, with the runner-up, Sirop de Mente, that day getting 9lb and now getting 19lb.
As in the novices’ final at 2 o’clock with Two Taffs, the market has gone for a hurdles maiden, Affaire d’Honneur, quite exceptional double vision by punters preferring potential to winning ability.
VERDICT: Philip Hobbs has set up For Good Measure (7.4 on BETDAQ) to land one of those Imperial Cup and Cheltenham handicap bonus doubles for J P McManus, though bookmaker sponsors for such a bonus seem to have gone into hiding.
The Measure of his success here must be a 5lb penalty if he is to get into his Cheltenham races. With stamina in the blood, he could be the one to overhaul the front-running quartet, of which Rayvin Black is too big at 15.0 and definitely worth a place, so much does he love Sandown and the mud.
PULL A STROKE AT 5.5 IN THE LINCOLN TRIAL
2.15 Wolverhampton (Ladbrokes Lincoln Trial) Horses aged four and five are seven from 10 in the decade and eight of the last nine carried more than 9st. So, young quality horses, then, like Si Senor? Snag is he’s drawn 12
I’m taking stalls one and two, which house the favourite, Keystroke (5.5 on BETDAQ, as I write) and the rank outsider, Father Bertie, 23.0.
Bold Prediction, Si Senor and Supersta are well know to the handicapper from Lingfield in February and there shouldn’t be cling-film between them.
Keystroke loves the game when fresh (not so much when he’s ‘remembered’ it) and Jeremy Noseda is flying, getting 100% from every runner.
Father Bertie is endowed with bags of courage and has another in-form trainer to place him for Spring success. Start backing him now at the big price (in case ‘today’s the day’) and be sure you’ll get your reward, if the button is not pressed until the turf season later in the month.
2.50 Wolverhampotoin (Ladbrokes’ Wulfruna Stakes) Realize only does what is necessary, and his last two wins by a neck have cost him only a 5lb rise.
Sovereign Debt has to give weight for winning a Listed and one in the Pattern at Group-3 level. He was one-two in this last year with Chookie Royale, who now has 5lb to claw back a length and a quarter. Chookie had won it in 2014.
But I doubt front-running Mister Universe is for catching from stall 4. I grabbed 5.6 offers, as Mark Johnston continues to place them well.
WESTERN RULES IN THE MUD AT BIG VALUE
4.40 Ayr (Craigie Cup) The ground has decimated this race, leaving Western Rules with a small field and deep going for his first handicap.
Nicky Richards thinks he’s a ‘proper horse’ and, as a Westerner, should love the ground. He’s not short of stamina and any flat spots seen in his recent races may be ironed out by the application of a first-time tongue-tie
The 3.05 offers I see with only five left in look generous against a favourite who is giving around a stone, raised 13lb for a flattering win at Kelso when several of the hurdles were removed.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, unless otherwise stated)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (each to win 50): 3.7pts win and 1.5pts place POINT THE WAY, and 3.2pts win and 1pt place WILL O’THE WEST (2.00 Sandown), with the place bets as win-stakes savers
BET 6.6pts win KEYSTROKE, and 1.3pts win and place FATHER BERTIE (2.15 Wolverhamptoin)
BET 6.5pts win MISTER UNIVERSE (2.50 Wolverhampton)
BET 4.6pts win FOR GOOD MEASURE, and 2pts win and 7pts place RAYVIN BLACK (3.10 Sandown), in which all three bets are staked to win 30 points
BET 14pts win (nap) WESTERN RULES (4.40 Ayr)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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