NOW FOR CHELTENHAM: Our friends at ProForm made a fantastic debut on BETDAQ TIPS with three out of three on Saturday! Now for Cheltenham and day one. Which horses are the stats pointings towards backing and laying on BETDAQ?
Positives:
1-30 Supreme Novice Hurdle: Nico De Boinville has a 33% strike rate over hurdles at Cheltenham, winning 7 of his 21 rides – his expected was only 2.5 so he must be doing something ride. He rides the second favourite, Altior at 5.3. De Boinville also has a 25% strike rate at the course when teaming up with Henderson.
It’s worth noting too, for the week ahead, that Ruby Walsh also has a good record at Cheltenham – however there isn’t much difference between his actual winners and his expected winners. He has rode 27 winners from 103 rides, however the expected was 25.2. He’s a reliable man for the big occasion.
2-10 Arkle Chase: Who wouldn’t like Douvan’s record, because he’s 100% in every box! Career, Class, Distance, Course – all obviously a small sample however but 100% nonetheless. Maybe Fox Norton can follow him home – Neil Mulholland has a 22% strike rate at Cheltenham, and he’s ran into some good form – winning with 6 of his 19 runners in the last 14 days, when the expected was 2.4. Richard Johnson rides, who also has a 22% strike rate over fences here, above expected and profitable long-term backing blind. Fox Norton is around 11.0 for a place on BETDAQ.
2-50 Grade 3 Handicap Chase: Nigel Twiston-Davies and Daryl Jacob team up here with Ballykan, currently trading 30.0, when they’ve teamed up together they’ve had 8 winners from 30 – also placing 8 times too.
Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson have 27% success rate teaming up over fences at Cheltenham, with almost double the expected winners. Kruzhlinin is 12.5.
3-30 Champion Hurdle: Nigel Twiston-Davies is in good form, winning almost double his expected races in the last 14 days, a positive sign for The New One, currently trading 6.8 – he will probably need to improve a bit so the trainer being in form obviously helps.
For those backing Annie Power, Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh have a 28% strike rate over hurdles at Cheltenham, a little above expected but not too profitable backing blind (up 1 point).
4-10 Mares Hurdle: Obviously the above Mullins/Walsh stat can carry over into this race too, with Vroum Vroum Mag the hot favoruite at 1.99. Not a huge amount of very eve-catching positives for the others in this race.
4-50 National Hunt Chase: Willie and Patrick Mullins have a 35% strike rate over all the race they’ve teamed up in, obviously quite a large amount of those races (644) would have been in Bumpers however, but Patrick is only .3 off having his expected winners at Cheltenham. Pont Alexandre is 11.0.
While Gordon Eillott have JJ Codd have a 26% strike rate when they’ve team up, they team up with Noble Endeavor at 8.4.
5-30 Listed Novice Handicap Chase: Colin Tizzard and Tom Scudamore have a 35% strike rate when they team up, Fourth Act is trading around 40.0, while Charlie Longsdon and Richard Johnson strike rate together is 27%, Killala Quay is 23.0.
Negatives:
1-30 Supreme Novice Hurdle: A small sample, but JJ Burke has yet to ride a winner over hurdles at Cheltenham, the expected is only .6, so nothing major to worry about.
Dan Skelton’s form has to be worry recently, winning only 2 races from his last 24, when the expected was over 7. He has two outsiders here, North Hill Harvey and Mister Miyagi – it might be worth checking out are they worth laying in the place market.
Dermot Weld and Davy Russell only have an 11% strike rate together, with only 5 winners when the expected was over 11. Silver Concorde is 4.6.
2-10 Arkle Chase: Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh have a decent strike rate together at Cheltenham, but not over fences – it’s only 11%. Douvan should be able to improve that though shouldn’t he?
Venetia Williams and Aidan Coleman have only managed 2 wins from the 61 times they’ve teamed up over fences at Cheltenham – Aso is total outsider here, but that stat could be worth bearing in mind for later in the week.
2-50 Grade 3 Handicap Chase: Jonjo O’Neill’s form would have to be a major worry, no winners from 13 runners in the last 14 days, only 4 winners in the last 56 days from 70 runners. Holywell is second favourite at 11.0.
Paul Nicholls and Sam Twiston-Davies strike rate over fences at Cheltenham is only 10%. Southfield Theatre is 22.0.
3-30 Champion Hurdle: Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty’s S/R over hurdles at Cheltenham is 15%, it’s not terrible though, just 3 winner below expected. You’d think a high profile combo though would have better stats. My Tent Or Yours will have to overcome a huge layoff too, he’s currently 11.0.
And Daryl Jacob only has a 9% success rate over hurdles at Cheltenham, he rides Top Notch, currently 18.5.
4-10 Mares Hurdle: David Bass is only 1 from 29 here, he rides second favourite Polly Peachum, currently 9.6. Nicky Henderson has been below his expected winners the last month too, but it’s not a major worry like Jonjo O’Neill’s form.
4-50 National Hunt Chase: Obviously as mentioned above Jonjo O’Neill’s form coming into Cheltenham is a worry, and he saddles the favourite here Minella Rocco, currently trading around 8.6.
Katie Walsh is 0 from 14 at the course, her expected is marginally above 1 winner from those 14 rides. She rides Measureofmydreams at 13.0.
5-30 Listed Novice Handicap Chase: Dan Skelton’s form would have to be a worry for Willows Saviour, currently trading 11.0. While Andrew Lynch has only had 1 winner from 29 attempts, his expected was 3, he rides an outsider here though in Domesday Book.
PROFORM BETS
BACK of the day on stats: Altior 1-30 Cheltenham, at around 5.3.
Next best: Kruzhlinin 2-50 Cheltenham, at around 12.0
Betdaq LAY of the day on stats: Minella Rocco 4-50 Cheltenham to place, at around 3.2.
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