7-2 SHOT FOR THE 19th HOLE! Daqman went for a graphically illustrated ‘hole-in-one’ with Ceann Sibheal (WON 7-2) at Warwick yesterday, but ironically his ‘air shot’ was just that, a lay that went wrong. Says Daqman: ‘I didn’t mind a losing lay at the long odds on. But I didn’t much like the fourth place of 17 with no return from Robert’s Star (12-1 from 20-1 on BETDAQ).
TOMORROW: LINGFIELD SPECIAL: At least Ceann Sibheal got Daqman back among the winners in time for the AW Championships at Lingfield tomorrow, when his stronger staking and target bets will be back.
BETDAQ MOVERS’ STAR ACT: Trainer Julia Feilden has just one runner at Wolverhampton this afternoon after her Star Of The Stage (13.2 on BETDAQ) was top Market Mover on BETDAQ at Southwell yesterday, and won at 15-2. BETDAQ Tips is packed with movers and shakers!
RECOGNITION GOOD? I’M NOT 100% SURE
100% of nothing is nothing! Stats addicts who follow 100% success rates in the Racing Post can’t remember when they last had a winner.
I know one bookie who has a standing order for them. I think he has the bets emailed to his yacht!
Not true, of course, but I’m sure he’d consider it, such is his gratitude. He’s celebrating again this week: three losers in a row.
Trainers with 100% record in a particular race on a particular course, Peter Niven (Southwell, Tuesday with Blades Lad) and Gary Moore (Exeter, same day with Mount Shamsan) have produced a BF and a TO. Beaten favourite and Tailed Off to you.
Yesterday Mr 100% was Philip Hobbs at Warwick with Beau Du Brizais; he produced an old-fashioned duck-egg: seventh. I hope you’re not doubling up, you guys!
Even with 25-point staking steps this week, you’ll need 100 points for today’s first 100% bet; then, if lose, 125, 150 and 175. Yes, there’s four of them!
I make that 25 + 50 + 75 + 100 + 125 + 150 + 175 = 700 points lost, if you don’t get a winner by the end of the day. Let’s check them out:
4.15 Ludlow This season Josh Moore and Stuart Edmunds are two out of two at Ludlow. Can they keep their 100% record with Cloonacool?
He’s very in and out, but is set for a going day if his 13121 and, since December, 213 sequences are anything to go by. Seems to act on any going.
But joint jolly with him this morning was Presenting Arms, who is capable of putting two wins together, and his figures of 110-1101 also suggest this is the day.
Zarzal sets up sequences, too, but his Ludlow hat-trick, followed by another three in a row last May, as both hurdler and chaser, has him 11lb higher than his last winning mark over fences. Artifice Sivola also needs a career best.
Arkaim can’t be ruled out. He won it last year, but his success was for Pam Sly; and new trainer, Olly Williams, reaches for a first-time hood and a claiming rider to try to revive him.
VERDICT: With the BETDAQ favourites on 4.2 each, I shall ‘cheat’ on this one and back both. Surely, at these offers we’ll see money for one of them, so I may be able to do a trade.
5.10 Wolverhampton Roger Varian has a 41% strike rate with three-year-olds on AW this year, and not with the odd runner: I’m talking about 7-15.
He has a 100% record in handicaps for such second-season horses at Wolver, though his representative today has little known form.
However, you could say that Recognition is a hidden horse because, although the grey’s nursery career was mainly over a mile, he suddenly steps up here to 1m 4f, a winning distance for some of his family (others were hurdlers at 2m).
Dangers? They all are (after all, it’s a handicap), but 9.6 win and place can’t hurt the bank too much.
5.20 Ludlow Yes, they come thick and fast these ‘100%ers’. If you are still looking for a winner, you could lose 450 points in half an hour between Wolver and Ludlow amid that 25-a-step staking plan!
This one celebrates 2-2 for Neil Mulholland in novice hurdlers at Ludders this year. Can he keep up the good work with Keep Up Keira (twice nightly) at 14.0 on BETDAQ as I write.
The Bath stable had a losing run of 17 until a winner at Warwick yesterday – he might do well at Aintree with Shantou Village – and this is not a race I like to bet in, unless burning my fingers (just one little finger actually) laying a long-odds-on shot yesterday.
5.40 Wolverhampton If we didn’t get out of the mire with Cloonacool, Presenting Arms or Recognition, we might go back to Wolver for Ed Dunlop and Silvestre De Sousa, who are 2-2 together this AW season, says the Post.
Ed had four straight winners, until a blip yesterday, three of them at Wolver, three of them in maidens like this one.
But there’s a plunge horse here this morning, Intermittent, trained by Roger Charlton. How well is Roger doing with his runners right now? Well, against his name on this racecard in the Racing Post website is ‘100.’ Could it be? Surely not.
VERDICT: Samples too small; qualifiers in different categories. You just can’t be 100% certain, can you!
THE NAP My man in the long grass tells me to forget Kestrel Call’s last run and to rely on his impressive win before that: 3.8 on BETDAQ for the 4.35 Wolverhampton.
DAQMAN’S BETS (1 to 9 for strength)
BET 1pt win and place KAY SERA (2.15 Wolverhampton)
BET 4pts win on each CLOONACOOL and PRESENTING ARMS (4.15 Ludlow)
BET 6pts win (nap) KESTREL CALL (4.35 Wolverhampton)
BET 2pts win and place RECOGNITION (5.10 Wolverhampton)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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