PROFORM STATS ANALYSIS: Our ProForm stats identify the key statistical positives and negatives today including the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse.
Positives:
Fairyhouse 5-00, Irish Grand National: Karl Thornton and Donagh Meyler have won on 6 of the 13 times they’ve teamed up, they’ve also placed another 3 times – maybe Bearly Legal can outrun odds of 130.0 in today’s big race.
In the same race, Gordon Elliott and Davy Russell have won 4 of 9 when teaming up over fences at Fairyhouse, Mala Beach is 15.0.
Fairyhouse 5-35: Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh have a 47% strike rate over fences at Fairyhouse with over 5 their expected winners, Uranna is 3.4.
Chepstow 2-20 and 4-40: Sean Bowen has a 37% strike rate over fences at Chepstow, he rides Golden Milan at 3.8 and Berea Boru at 3.5 today, both favourite.
Huntingdon 4-30: Nicky Henderson has won with 19 of his 50 runners over hurdles here, a S/R of 38%. Red Hammer is 2.08.
Market Rasen 2-25: Nigel Hawke has a 33% strike rate over fences at Market Rasen, winning over double his expected races, Take A Break is 26.0.
Market Rasen 3-35: John Ferguson has a 35% S/R here over hurdles, he saddles Blue Rambler at 3.85.
Fakenham 3-25 and 4-35: Neil Mulholland has a 33% strike rate over hurdles here, with over double his expected winners at the course, he saddles Main Of Tuscany at 5.0 and Whos Micky Brown at 9.6.
Fakenham 4-00: Lucy Wadham has a 41% S/R over fences here, Amidon has been well supported early at 3.45.
Fakenham 5-45: When Nicky Henderson has had a runner in a Fakenham bumper, he’s 80%! He’s won 4 from 5, and Kayf Grace should give him another at 1.25.
Redcar 3-45: David Barron and Graham Gibbons have a 35% strike rate at Redcar, with over double their expected winners, Bahama Moon is 15.5.
Cork 5-20: Sean O’Brien and Mr CW Fennessy are 4 from 7 together, they team up again with Impulsive Star at 3.1.
Negatives:
Fairyhouse 6-10: Andrew Lynch’s strike rate at Fairyhouse is below 5%, and he should have had double his winners there, Some Drama is 11.5.
Fairyhouse 6-40: While Willie Mullins has a strong record at nearly every course in Ireland, he has actually had below his expected winners in Fairyhouse Bumpers – his Blow By Blow is 2.98.
Chepstow 1-45 and 2-55: Paddy Brennan has only managed 1 winner from 41 rides over hurdles here, he rides Song Sea (1.35) and Leg Lock Luke (8.4) today.
Chepstow 4-40: John Flint and Rhys Flint S/R together is under 6% from a sample of 150+, they team up with Kayf Moss at 4.6.
Huntingdon 3-20: Neil King has only had 1 winner from 25 runners over fences at Huntingdon – Mercers Court is 2.92.
Market Rasen 1-50: Adam Pogson is 1 from 33 over hurdles here, he rides Moidore at 9.4.
Redcar 2-35: A small sample but Keith Dalgleish and Phillip Makin have only won 1 from 15 together, poor given their expected, New Lease Of Life is 8.6. Keith Dalgeish is only 3 from 70 with his runners at the track too.
Cork 2-25: Chris Hayes has a strike rate of under 5% at Cork, from a sample of over 100 and should have had double his winners, Penny Pepper is 4.6. The trainer, Kevin Prendergast, also has a S/R of under 5% at the track.
PROFORM BETS:
Betdaq BACK of the day on stats: Mala Beach 5-00 Fairyhouse, at around 15.0.
Betdaq LAY of the day on stats: Penny Pepper 2-25 Cork, at around 4.6.
£25 IN FREE BETS
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