TODAY: Start following Daqman’s Fortune Cookies, star-name horses heading for Group status in the first half of the Flat season. There are two at York this week. TOMORROW: the big push for long-odds value.
FROM BRIGHTON TO WINDSOR: Our man takes a look for the best bets to start the week. He travels to Brighton for one before going on to the regular Monday evening fixture at Windsor for another two selections including his nap of the day.
FORTUNE COOKIES FOR A BIG YORK DOUBLE
We’re spreading the net wide. As you know I’ve divided my main campaign for winners between the Fortune Cookies, horses to follow in Group races, and Triple Bonus value bets.
I’ll talk about the value assault tomorrow. Meanwhile, let’s have a look at the York programme. The first two ‘cookies’, which will be backed maximum stakes, are:
* Arabian Queen (Middleton Stakes, York, Thursday). The filly who beat Golden Horn in the International, was driving a strong field into the ground before a French improver of Andre Fabre’s came by in last Sunday’s mile and a furlong Dahlia Stakes.
I said she was bound to win another big race back to 1m 4f, but Silvestre De Sousa has been booked for Thursday’s 10-furlong test, and I shall expect to see her in the front rank all the way, putting her stamina to full use, hopefully from a handy draw.
* Midterm (Dante Stakes, Thursday). Took over as Derby favourite after speculation about the value of US Army Ranger’s narrow success in the Chester Vase.
A lazy colt at home so that all we know of him is how laid back he is and how he was full of promise on his seasonal reappearance. Does he deserve to be one of my Group-grabbers in advance of the Dante?
Well that will bag us a Group 2, and I’m backing him on Thursday rather than speculate now on the Derby, after buying up some of the value on US Army Ranger when he eased in the Epsom market. Highlights of the York week:
WEDNESDAY: Musidora Stakes Made famous as an Oaks trial by Sir Henry Cecil, who won it three years running with Indian Skimmer, Diminuendo and Snow Bride.
Sir Michael Stoute (8), John Gosden (4), Jim Bolger and Saeed Bin Suroor (3) are the leading trainers since those days.
Leading jockeys: Frankie Dettori (3), Kieren Fallon (3) and William Buick (2),
The race’s last big winner was Michael Bell’s Sariska, who went on to take the Epsom Oaks in 2009.
THURSDAY: Dante Stakes The Dante had had its doubters since Authorized a decade ago but last year Golden Horn (John Gosden) resurrected the race as the premier Derby test.
Leading modern trainers: Sir Michael Stoute (6), Aidan O’Brien (4) Gosden and Saeed Bin Suroor (2 each).
Leading jockeys: Ryan Moore (3), Kieren Fallon (3) and William Buick (2)
FRIDAY: Yorkshire Cup Sir Michael Stoute is going for a hat-trick in the race – and his fifth winner in all – after Gospel Choir and Snow Sky in the last two seasons. Also with five wins is Saeed Bin Suroor.
John Gosden, Ed Dunlop, Richard Fahey, Jamie Osborne and Mark Johnston have one each.
Leading jockeys: Frankie Dettori (3) and Ryan Moore (3). Don’t miss my race-by-race analysis on all three days.
* The full Fortune Cookies list is: Arabian Queen, Cotai Glory, Exosphere, Found, Minding, Midterm, So Mi Dar, Profitable, Usherette
LIGHTNING TO STRIKE AT WINDSOR TONIGHT
2.50 Brighton This is the only race worth talking about at Brighton. A tightly packed field over six furlongs on ground that is quickening by the minute.
Lyfka can be discounted. It’s a while since she ran a good race although she is dropping steadily down the handicap so may be worth noting for a weaker race in the future.
Subtle Knife has done the majority of his winning on the All Weather with the best of her turf form on a slower surface.
Gleaming Girl is dropping back to six furlongs having run mostly at a mile. From looking at her last runs, she doesn’t look like a real sprinting type. In saying that, this is a relatively weak race with a small field so that could bring her into it.
I find it hard to look beyond Pretty Bubbles. She’s well tried but has the added advantage of course and distance form along with a few recent runs. Although the form of her last win hasn’t worked out that well so far, she looks like she should have some improvement left in her to account for the 6lb rise in the weights.
6.50 Windsor This is a fairly open looking contest. There are three or four of these that are likely to want to lead early on so I would suspect there will be a decent pace for it which could help the hold up horses.
One of those that will be coming late will be the top weight, Sydney Ruffdiamond for Richard Hughes and Shane Kelly. He steps up to six furlongs which looks like it will help him. He ran over five at the end of April and was caught for pace slightly late on at Goodwood. That run should set him up for this. At time of writing, he’s showing 7.4 on BETDAQ, which looks too big.
7.20 Windsor A nice Listed race highlights the card. It looks between the three highest rates, Battle of Marathon, Here Comes When and Lightning Spear.
Realistically, Lightning Spear should be more than capable of winning a Listed race considering his previous form. He got stuck in the mud in the Champion Stakes when trying 10 furlongs for the first time. Dropping back to a mile and back on good ground should see the best of him and it’s hard to see him getting beaten in this, even without the lack of a recent run.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked 1-9 points on Strength, 10pts for a Banker)
BET 6pts win PRETTY BUBBLES (2.50 Brighton)
BET 2pts win and place SYDNEY RUFFDIAMOND (6.50 Windsor)
BET 8pts win (nap) LIGHTNING SPEAR (7.20 Windsor)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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