DAQMAN 28-9 UP ON PRICEWISE: Daqman risks his neck on a daily basis and Convey’s fast-finishing 10-1 neck second, for win and place, puts him further in front of Pricewise, who has drawn a blank at York so far. But the place-only results continued on a frustrating day, with Thesme (3rd 12-1) and The Cashel Man (2nd 4-1). Current standings:
Bankers 3-7
Fortune Cookies 1-2
Lays (90%) 18 out of 20
Challenge: Daqman 28, Pricewise 9
BIG-ODDS AT TWO MEETINGS: Look out of a banker at York this afternoon, with his selections including BETDAQ offers of 10.5, 11.5, 12.5 and 27.0, as he takes on Pricewise again in the 3.10 Newbury and 3.30 York.
27.0 WARNING! ANGEL SPEED IS ‘AYRESOME’
2.20 York Despite one or two power surges nearer the stands’ side, winners by stall of the 5f and 6f races at York this week have been 5, 4, 4, 4, 1, 3.
York is so fast these days – like Ascot – that, even so yesterday, the times were slow. Yet they have watered for today’s card.
If you’re asking yourself why you haven’t been getting winners, then ground and draw bias are among the answers.
And, remember, you are trying to deal with the limited form of young horses: 11 out of 14 winners at York this week have been aged two, three and four.
This opener is a three-year-old handicap, in which anything might happen. We can only ally ourselves to the bias, plus the advantage gained from stables in form.
Richard Hannon (Dheban, stall 7) has an 8% strike-rate on the Knavesmire, but has scored twice this week at huge odds: 12-1 Nayel and 14-1 Admiralty Arch. He’s thrown in a 10-1 winner at Newmarket and 33-1 at Lingfield in the same two days!
Teresar (stall 6) drops four rungs down the graded-racing ladder from her Group effort last backend, and is very fast. Just That Lord (stall 5) is 6lb ahead of the handicapper on a fixed penalty.
When Bryan Smart uses claimer Phil Dennis (Ayresome Angel, stall 4), they score near-30% of the time, and ‘Smartie’ has been hitting the wire with 25-1 and 50-1 places since he found bull’s-eye at 14-1 a week ago.
Paddy Power (stall 3) has to step up from a maiden-only victory on AW, but stablemate Curtain Call (stall 1) is 2-2 over the minimum and is likely to hit the traps running on the far side of Teresar and Ayresome Angel.
That leaves Lydia’s Place (stall 2), a CD winner as part of a hat-trick for a claiming rider. Trainer Richard Guest – also saddles Udontdoyou – has a modest record, yet a good level-stakes profit at York, which translates as ‘wins with an outsider or two.’
VERDICT: Curtain Call has so far scored only with ‘soft’ in the going returns and, like Dheban, Teresar, Paddy Power and Just That Lord, only in class 5.
Lydia’s Place was impressive at York last July but raced only one more time and the form of that victory hasn’t worked out. El Astronaute’s Chester win was also against duds.
Ayresome Angel was giving weight to the winners of eight races when she just faded in the final 50 yards over this York CD, and is claimed off, making 27.0 offers on BETDAQ look mistaken.
Teresar (10.5) was not disgraced in a Group 3 and, with not much depth to this field, could be placed despite top weight, if he goes with the strong pace on the far rail.
AMLAK CAN MAKE BOATER RUN FOR HER LIFE
2.55 York This could be very fast. Boater, by the flying-machine Helmet, has already spread-eagled a field at Kempton, and has the advantage of stall 2.
Perfect Madge has a good sit in 4, but the likely late threat is the only Group entry, Amlak, for Richard Hannon, who also has Stormy Clouds drawn wide.
Amlak and Frankie Dettori look huge at 11.5 in the BETDAQ orange at time of writing, though Boater may be hard to peg backj.
3.10 Newbury Beware the change of ground: it’s soft in the South, soft enough for Englishman (5.8 BETDAQ) to complete his hat-trick.
Mullionheir is one to keep an eye on but he has been long absent and too soft a surface doesn’t suit.
Kickboxer, huge at 12.5, looks a bigger threat with the stable on a four-timer after three in a row at York, maybe even on a four-timer if it has already scored with Arabian Hope (2.10 Newmarket)
3.30 York (Michael Seely Memorial) As in the Classic races, we have no choice but to support class form until there is a rude awakening.
Nemoralia, placed in Grade 1 in the States, and Thetis, Group-2 runner at Newmarket, have easily the best credentials.
Jeremy Noseda has yet to score on turf this season, so I await with interest the running of his even-money favourite, Nemoralia.
At the offers (4.7 on BETDAQ) I prefer Thetis, who beat the Musidora third, Promising Run, last season.
The Esher Cup winner, Czabo, gets a Listed test to see whether her Irish Guineas and Coronation Stakes entries are for real.
BANKER WILL FLY WHEN GIVEN THE OFFICE
4.05 York (Yorkshire Cup) Disappointing turn-out. Flying Officer, who beat Cleverr Cookie at Ascot in October, is weighted to reverse recent form with the same horse.
John Gosden stable was flying yesterday and, teaming up with Frankie Dettori, they are 3-5 in races like this at York. I can see him taking it up early in the straight on this two-miler. A banker at 2.66 in the BETDAQ orange.
Luca Cumani has had only one turf winner this season but Second Step has won first time of asking for two years running, and is a bigger threat than Clever Cookie if fit.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 unless stated)
2.10 Newmarket
BET 7pts win ARABIAN HOPE
2.20 York
BET 3pts win and place TERESAR, and 1.2pts win and place AYRESOME ANGEL
2.55 York
BET (to win 20) 10pts win BOATER, and (to win 30) 3pts win and place AMLAK
3.10 Newbury
BET 6pts win ENGLISHMAN, and 2.7pts win and place KICKBOXER
3.30 York
BET 8pts win THETIS
4.05 York
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) FLYING OFFICER
£25 IN FREE BETS
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