14.0 BET IN THE BIG SPRINT: A fairly quiet Saturday with Royal Ascot ahead of us next week. But Daqman finds bets from 6.6 for his nap to a 14.0 BETDAQ offer in the big sprint at Musselburgh and analyses some tough racing at Sandown and York. Check out these headlines:
NOT-SO-IMPULSIVE PUNT ON PIPE TRAVELER
WEIGHTS HAVE PAVILION POISED TO POUNCE
MUWARRY GOOD VALUE TO BOUNCE BACK
THESME AND YOU BOTH BACKING 11.0 SHOT
LINGFIELD 50-1 PLUNGE HORSE AMAZEMENT
TOMORROW AND MONDAY: Royal Ascot preview: the value in BETDAQ offers; where the big prices come from; Daqman’s triple-bonus betting.
NOT-SO-IMPULSIVE PUNT ON PIPE TRAVELER
2.35 Musselburgh It’s déjà vu at Edinburgh. Aldreth, Gabrial the Duke and Full Day were first, second and fourth in this last year, with no reason for a change in the order at the revised weights.
But the claimed-off Impulsive American has easily accounted for Aldreth on today’s course and Sweet Selection has also been on the upgrade this Spring.
The two southern raiders, trained respectively by David Pipe and Hughie Morrison, were 4.1 and 5.1 respectively in the BETDAQ orange early mouse.
I took Impulsive American, since Hughie Morrison is struggling for form (9% strike rate on turf this year) and Sweet Selection’s success was in a slowly-run race. Pipe is flying with 6-14 in the last fortnight, and makes the long trip from the south-west with the one horse.
WEIGHTS HAVE PAVILION POISED TO POUNCE
2.45 Sandown When the ground is firm or good, we’re still having to catch up on the change from soft-heavy in the wet spring, and it keeps on being changeable.
So, for instance, should we judge that, on better terms, King’s Pavilion will avenge his defeat by Dolphin Vista on the Ripon race in April run on heavy ground? I think he will at 6.6 on BETDAQ this morning. He’s missing Royal Ascot for this.
Both horses have won since and are in the right age group: it’s four-year-olds 3, three-year-olds 1 in the four previous runnings, and the market says we’d be right to rely on Dolphin Vista, Franklin D, King’s Pavilion and Mutamakkin to produce the winner.
Mutamakkin is morning favourite but again the ground is a concern. A winner and placed on good-to-soft and soft, the stable claimed that ‘the colt was unsuited by good to firm ground’ when unplaced at Newmarket in the Spring of 201. So, presumably, any showers need to get into the ground for him.
Franklin D looks high in the handicap for what he’s done but first-time visor could help. Pricewise appears to be privy to inside information, that The Rectifier has had a wind op.
We are not told, but he still wears a tongue-tie (The Rectifier not Tom Segal, though I hope to leave him in that state at Royal Ascot).
MUWARRY GOOD VALUE TO BOUNCE BACK
3.00 York Jallota scored on this card a year ago after running well at Chester. This year Jallota won at the Dante meeting on this course, also after running well at Chester. So has he already shot his bolt?
Top Notch Tonto took the race last season and his stable is having winners but that was his only success since 2013 and blinkers are tried now. Baraweez, lightly raced this season, is big at 23.0.
Mutakayyef is a long-time bridesmaid, with seven seconds and two thirds, having won only his maiden (always a bad sign). Gabrial is on a losing run of 16 but drops in class. Sovereign Debt has suffered this season from his Group penalty.
Muwarry, second in the Jersey Stakes at this time two years ago, will have been got ready for this but John Gosden is also missing strike: four seconds and a third – four of them beaten favourite – surround his one success at class-5 level since Wednesday.
But 7.0 on BETDAQ can’t be bad, with the two bridesmaids, Mutakayyef and Gabrial, his two closest rivals in the BETDAQ market
THESME AND YOU BOTH BACKING 11.0 SHOT
3.45 Musselburgh (Scottish Sprint Cup) Many sprints go to older horses; some are strictly for the younger improvers, and you have to check that out.
In this case, none over the age of six has won, and high numbers in the draw have a good record: six out of nine from stalls 10, 11, 13, 15 and 16. We’ll look at those horses fitst but be warned that there is a lot of pace on low.
Hoofalong, Judicial, Kimberella, Royal Birth and See The Sun all tick both age and draw boxes, though Hoofalong and Royal Birth seem better on AW.
The track is drying out for Judicial, who showed improved form at Thirsk on the last day, a fifth win from only eight starts.
Kimberella has a 5lb pull for three lengths at Thirsk. That should not be enough and, in any case, Judicial won comfortably.
Front-runner Red Baron, who was second, just under two lengths off the winner, is an appropriate 6lb better, and has more of a chance of closing down Judicial. He’s drawn 2, so could bring the low stalls into it.
See The Sun seems to be making rapid strides, on a hat-trick today, raised 11lb; but, in fact, he’s won off 90 before (93 today), and a bigger challenge is the drop back to 5f. It’s nearly three years since he scored at the minimum trip.
Duke Of Firenze is a once-a-year winner and may have done his bit for a while; he’s never shown when raised to 100 and more.
Thesme, also drawn low and also a pace horse, is 10lb better with Duke Of Firenze on York form in May, when she was just in front of Red Baron, in receipt of 9lb.
That pair are handicapped very close together now and, if you follow this form line back to Judicial, you’ve got a clear case for Thesme. One on each side, then; Thesme in stall 4 at 11.0 offers this morning; Judicial in 14 at 11.5.
LINGFIELD 50-1 PLUNGE HORSE AMAZEMENT
6.50 Lingfield Sweet Amazement’s eponymous home performances led to an all-night vigil among punters to get a piece of her debut action.
Opened 50-1 but was down to 9-1 with Ladbrokes at 8 o’clock this morning, and BETDAQ offers of 10.0 were seen at 9.30 a.m.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, unless stated)
BET (to win 10) 10pts win ARAB POET (1.40 Sandown)
BET 6.6pts win IMPULSIVE AMERICAN (2.35 Musselburgh)
BET 5.3pts (to win 30) KING’S PAVILION (nap, 2.45 Sandown)
BET 3.3pts win MUWARRY, and 1pt win and place at 23.0 BARAWEEZ (3.00 York)
BET 1pt win and place STILL ON TOP (35.0 in the 3.35 York)
BET 2pts win and place on each JUDICIAL and THESME (3.45 Musselburgh)
BET 2pts win SWEET AMAZEMENT (6.50 Lingfield)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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