TWO NAPS UP OUT OF THREE: Who’s the top tipster? Answer: Daqman, and that’s final. He landed his second nap out of the last three yesterday with Final (WON 9-4) following his French Oaks winner, La Cressonniere (WON 11-4). His best-bet form figures are now 121.
IRISH DERBY ABC GUIDE: Today Daqman runs down the tick boxes, analyzing each declared runner for Saturday’s Irish Derby field.
4-1 NAP CAN RING THE BELL: He finds some rank outsiders worth a punt on Carlisle Bell day at 10.0, 12.0, 20.0 and 23.0 on BETDAQ. His nap was 4.9 this morning.
IRISH DERBY ABC: BALLYDOYLE’S PICK-SIX
5.20 The Curragh, Saturday (Irish Derby) Of his 28 declared among 59 acceptors for the Irish Derby at the Curragh, Aidan O’Brien picks six to run on Saturday, with the field now down to 11.
The winner and the last horse home of the 16 who contested the Epsom Derby, Harzand and Moonlight Magic, are among a handful prepared to take him on.
Dermot Weld (two) and Jim Bolger (two) make up the home team, with just the one English raider, Ed Dunlop’s Red Verdon, who had an unlucky run at Epsom.
A Won over at least 1m 2f (11/13)
B Won a Group race (11/13)
C Won at least three times (11/13)
D Ran the Epsom Derby (9/13)
E Trained Aidan O’ Brien (8/13)
F Ran in last 35 days (11/13)
X-factor: Stable in form
ABCDFX Harzand
The son of Sea The Stars was described as ‘too green and with a lot to learn’ when he won the Ballysax at Leopardstown in April and jockey Pat Smullen said he was ‘too big and heavy to go round Epsom.’ He was glad to eat his words.
But, unless the rain had come in the Epsom build-up, he might not have run. Even then, he had a front foot in an ice-bucket on the morning of the race after spreading a plate.
In the race itself, he resisted the challenge of US Army Ranger and pulled away, with Idaho – second in the Ballysax – finishing third. But the Irish Derby will come plenty soon enough after his antibiotics for the foot prick. Tomorrow is decision day.
ABCDFX Moonlight Magic
Out of the back door in the Ballysax on soft ground and with Jim Bolger’s stable badly out of kilter, but beat Shogun and Idaho on a sound surface for the Derrinstown (Leopardstown Derby Trial).
But, back on the soft after the rain got into the ground at Epsom, and hating the gradients, he finished stone last in the English Derby.
Across The Stars, 19 lengths behind Harzand at Epsom, went to last week’s royal meeting and won the ‘Ascot Derby,’ the King Edward V11 Stakes. So all may not be lost.
ABDEFX US Army Ranger
I stood by him after he only just edged home in front of Port Douglas in the Chester Vase, still very green at the business end. I was right to do so.
But, when he got a ‘Dancing Brave ride’, sweeping down the outside at Epsom, he again tied up in the closing stages and finished where Dancing Brave did: second.
Dancing Brave went on to win the Arc but there was never any doubt that he would have won at Epsom had his run been better timed. His jockey, Greville ‘The Growler’ Starkey, was over confident.
In the case of US Army Ranger, babyish antics at the start contributed to his lying well out of his ground and being given an enormous amount to do. That leaves us in the same position that we were in at Chester. Baby learning to walk, baby cutting his teeth.. but has he stopped learning or will he be even better when he’s grown out of his romper suit?
ACDX Red Verdon
Given a stone rise for winning a Haydock handicap and improved again when sixth in the Epsom Derby, checked in his run. Not Silvestre De Sousa’s finest tactical ride. Had shown ‘a devastating turn of foot’ under George Baker at Haydock (quote unquote Racing Post racereaders).
AEFX Sword Fighter
Beaten 16 lengths by Harzand as a juvenile but steadily improved for a trip this year, third to Ebediyin over the Derby distance but, stepped up again and given an easy lead, he won the Queen’s Vase (2m) at Royal Ascot. Quick return but acts on any going.
AFX Stellar Mass
Another son of Sea The Stars, fourth in the Beresford to Port Douglas as a juvenile. Exposed (nine races already) but back in form this month after the poor Spring for the Jim Bolger yard, which is now doing well.
AX Ebediyin
Fifth to Moonlight Magic as a juvenile; just run out of the places in the Queens Vase, won by Sword Fighter. This is a quick return after Royal Ascot for a horse that’s all about stamina. Stable has been flying this month.
BDEFX Port Douglas
Was given the task of educating US Army Ranger in the Chester Vase but almost got to the winner, beaten a short head in a controversial finish.
It says a lot of that race that US Army Ranger then ran second in the Epsom Derby, with Port Douglas 36 lengths in rear and now officially rated 10lb behind the Ranger.
DEFX Idaho
Meanwhile Idaho is officially up 10lb, raising his game from third to Moonlight Magic and Shogun in the Derrinstown (Leopardstown Derby Trial) to third in the real thing at Epsom, with Shogun and Moonlight Magic the last pair to finish.
DEFX Shogun
Has improved only ounces so serves as a benchmark: third in the Craven Stakes and the Derrinstown – both off 108 – then fifth in the Irish 2,000, and last but one of 16 in the Derby (both of 109).
EFX Claudio Monteverdi
Ran green when odds-on favourite (fourth) in the Epsom Derby Trial, won by So Mi Dar, before narrow runner-up in the King George V Cup at Leopardstown. Looks a Leger type and expected to set the pace on Saturday for the O’Brien five.
RED BOX HAS SUDDENLY TAKEN OFF..
3.35 Carlisle Bell Old-boy racers rarely put two wins together; the wheels come off. So I’m snubbing Dubai Dynamo, Kalk Bay and Ginger Jack and I’ll be surprised if Santefisio can face them out, aged 10.
Glenalmond hasn’t won since his debut maiden; always a bad sign.
Lavetta has found that any thing beyond 7f stretches her stamina. Edgar Balthazar is a similar sort, and the drop back in trip may suit likely front-runner Hard To Handel.
A 12.0 BETDAQ offer, Woody Bay, massively better off with Edgar Balthazar on last season’s form, has just found his feet this year. Put back-to-back wins together last September, in better form then despite a higher rating than when fourth in the Consolation for this.
Jacbequick is consistent but hard to win with, and a better bet is stablemate Alejandro (offers of 20.0), who has his conditions, and a swing in the weights on Kalk Bay who beat him at Musselburgh.
4.10 Carlisle Opal Tiara and Our Joy have already raced unsuccessfully at Listed level, while John Gosden is also hoping that his class-4 handicap winner, Eternally, is good enough in a northern fillies’ race three grades higher in the search for bllack type.
But a decent punt is Red Box (4.9 on BETDAQ), with racecourse spotters saying she ‘suddenly took off’ and ‘the penny dropped’ when winning her maiden on this course on the last day.
Her dam won the French Oaks and trainer Sir Mark Prescott has a far better strike rate up here than the other southern raiders.
4.40 Carlisle (Cumberland Plate) There is only a pound or two between Inniscastle Lad, Jolievitesse and Two Jabs on collateral form, and Masterpaver has yet toiprove he can carry his penalty for back-to-back success in May.
Plane Song (23.0 on BETDAQ) is llightly raced for a yard just coming back to form, but the one I like as a hidden horse is Rhythmical (10.0).
Bumped before being the moral winner at Musselburgh – giving weight but narrowly beaten by the winner – and then came out too soon (only three days later) and didn’t show his form at Lingfield.
BETDAQ TIPS (staked to win 20pts)
BET 1.4pts win and place WOODY BAY, and 1pt win and place ALEJANDRO (3.35 Carlisle)
BET 5pts win (nap) RED BOX (4.10 Carlisle)
BETY 2pts win and place RHYTHMICAL, and 1pt win and place PLANE SONG (4.40 Carlisle)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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