IN 140-POINT PUNT: Daqman Fortune Cookies clash in the King George sprint at Goodwood today, with morning offers on BETDAQ of 8.0 Easton Angel and 11.0 Cotai Glory suggesting a return of at least 140 points if one of them wins at 20-point stakes. His final Fortune Cookie of the week is Minding in tomorrow’s Sussex Stakes.
NEEDS ONE FOR 60: Second routine clash today is with Pricewise of the Racing Post: they’ve had winners at 11-1, 9-1 and 9-2 at Goodwood, with Daqman leading 2-1, taking the scores to Daqman 59, Pricewise 26. Today they clash in the 2.35, 3.10 and 3.45 at Goodwood. Will it be 60 up for Daqman?
DARES A MAXIMUM–STAKES BANKER: Finally, Daqman dares a third 20-pointer today, his opening-race nap, a banker start to a forecast big day for Sir Michael Stoute.
KINGS WILL BE FETED AT GOODWOOD
2.00 Goodwood (Glorious Stakes) Ryan Moore’s two Goodwood winners this week, The Gurkha and Rhododendron, were both handy in their races.
Moore has never looked happy with a wide draw on the downs, and it seemed to take him an age to get a tune out of Stargazer (stall 16) yesterday, too late to catch You’re Hired (though that one was in the adjacent 14).
And Sir Michael Stoute’s sole Goodwood winner this week so far (Ulysees) was ridden by Andrea Atzeni.
Moore will be expected to redeem himself in the opener today on Kings Fete, described by my man in the long grass as ‘working the house down’. I take it he’s going particularly well.
Offers of 4.0 on BETDAQ look generous. Ayrad needs cut; and, like Berkshire and Majeed, has never won over the trip.
Elite Army finished in front of Kings Fete in the Duke Of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot but the Stoute nag had to be snatched up.
Luca Cumani (Loving Things) has failed to show with both Shakopee and Banksea from advantageous handicap positions this week.
So Mount Logan is the danger, as three times a course winner but twice beaten by Stoute horses (Exosphere and Dartmouth) in his last three runs.
FORGE FURTHER AHEAD WITH STOUTE
2.35 Goodwood Stoute is looking for a one-two from his second and third in the Jersey Stakes, Thikriyaat (Hanagan at 3.75) and Forge (Moore at 7.2), separated by only a head at Royal Ascot on the soft.
Thikriyaat had earlier beaten Dragon Mail comfortably, though officially by only a neck, at Newmarket.
Emotionless, fifth to two Guineas winners, Galileo Gold and The Gurkha, in the St James’s Palace Stakes, was returning after a long absence that day, and should improve for the better ground.
He would be giving the field upwards of 7lb if this were a handicap, but that relates to his Doncaster Champagne Stakes success before his injury in the 2015 Dewhurst, for which he started 7-4.
Godolphin have a second Group-2 winner of 2015, Promising Run, a ‘nearly horse’ this year (filly actually), third in the Musidora, fifth in the Coronation Stakes. First-time visors may help.
Buratino and Cymric are another brace of nearly horses, both of them dropped in the ratings. It all goes to suggest that the two Stoute improvers have only to beat horses saddled with excuses.
RELY ON AZRAFF’S CRUISING SPEED
3.10 Goodwood (Golden Mile) A single-figure draw has won eight out of 10, with the one stall successful three times, which has all been headlined and will help lead to cramped odds about runaway Newmarket winner Franklin D.
But it’s hard to get away from the stalls bias. The first five home last year were drawn 11 or under and that applied to five of the first six the year before.
Horses aged three and four dominate (together they make up a total of eight out of 10 in the decade).
Yet again that points up Franklin D. But Azraff, fourth in the Royal Hunt Cup, looked very useful at Newbury in the Spring, travelling well, so Goodwood should suit. Might have preferred a drop of rain; watering will have to do.
After You’re Hired yesterday, You’re Fired today, dropped 3lb by the handicapper and claimed off, so in with a chance, though I’d prefer a senior jockey. Master The World too high. One Word More too high.
Belgian Bill, last year’s winner, is in a better race this time around. His stable has brought Boomshackerlacker back to form for this (Room Key stone last that day).
Red Avenger won this in 2014; hasn’t shown much for his new stable, but hadn’t shown much before he won two years ago! What he had on his side that day was firm ground and a low draw; today, firm ground and a low draw.
Donncha has climbed the handicap without winning since a 7f success here in June last year.
Just outside the best stalls area is Third Time Lucky (in 12), who would have won the Cambridgeshire from the front at this trip and has been saved up for another late summer and autumn campaign
BETDAQ ORANGE VERDICT: Franklin D, with the plum draw, is an awful price but 10lb ahead of the handicapper. I took 11.0 Azraff, 17.5 Third Time Lucky and 30.0 Red Avenger for silver, with a stakes-cover saver Franklin D.
STALLS FORTUNE FAVOURS THE ANGEL
3.45 Goodwood (King George Stakes) Three of the last four winners had finished close up in the Kings Stand, which today gives you Cotai Glory (2nd), Goken (3rd), Jungle Cat (4th) and Move In Time (8th).
Another key race could be the more recent Listed at York, when Marsha beat Easton Angel and Muthmir, with Kachy only sixth.
Single-figure stalls have been favoured this week, and the first three in the race last year – Muthmir, Take Cover and Move In Time – were from 3, 9 and 6. Stalls, 3, 4, 5 and 8 (twice) have won in five of the last six seasons.
The same three come out of gates 10, 11 and 7 this time around, with Kachy (stall 3), Easton Angel (in 4), Washington DC (6), Marsha (8) and Cotai Glory (9) best placed.
I will stand – and bite my nails – on the Kings Stand second and the York second, my two Fortune Cookies, Cotai Glory and Easton Angel.
GO TO BLAZERS: GIVE THE MAN A BREAK!
6.15 Galway Blazers I landed this last year at 16-1 with Rogue Angel, who went on to win the Irish Grand National for me at the same SP. Mouse Morris had something to do with it.
Today, despite a Galway Hurdle one-two aged 9 and 11 yesterday, I’m looking for a young horse, with ages 6, 7 and 8 successful in the last four seasons.
On their side was a weight below 11st, and all told eight of the last 10 in the decade were low in the handicap.
Michael Hourigan hasn’t had a winner for 264 days but he will never have a better chance to break back, ironically with 16.5 BETDAQ offer Give Me A Break, placed at this festival over hurdles and at the Fairyhouse Festival over fences. He’s 16lb lower in chases.
6.50 Galway (Guinness Handicap) Just as he did yesterday, old Clondaw Warrior broke the hearts of the young horses in this last year. Before him, seven out of nine winners were five-year-olds.
Alveena has been punished twice, according to Dermot Weld: first by the handicapper, and here by a high draw.
But Queen Alphabet is having a worse time with the handicapper, upped 12lb for completing her hat-trick. But at least that gets her within a pound of the handicap proper, and she has the one stall.
Golden Spear (in gate 3) was runner-up last year, and takes my eye at 7.8 in the BETDAQ orange. I need a win and place, with Tony Martin only 1-10 at Galway this week, missing strike with three seconds.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 30 points, but Fortune Cookies and Bankers are 20pts win)
2.00 Goodwood
BANKER BET: 20pts win (nap) KINGS FETE
2.35 Goodwood
BET 10pts win THIKRIYAAT and 4.8pts win FORGE
3.10 Goodwood
BET 3pts win and place AZRAFF, 1.8pts win and place THIRD TIME LUCKY, 1pt win and place RED AVENGER, plus 5.2pts win (stakes cover) FRANKLIN D
3.45 Goodwood
Fortune Cookies COTAI GLORY and EASTON ANGEL
6.15 Galway
BET 2pts win and place GIVE ME A BREAK
6.50 Galway
BET 4.4pts win and place GOLDEN SPEAR
£25 IN FREE BETS
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