TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP: The four majors may be behind us, but with the Olympics on deck and the Ryder Cup in the not-too-distant future (not to mention the FedEx Cup playoffs), there’s still plenty of meaningful golf ahead in 2016. This week the PGA Tour returns to Connecticut for the Travelers Championship, an event that has been held in the greater Hartford area since 1952 and has become a hallmark of summertime in the Northeast.
This tournament is normally staged the week after a different major– the U.S. Open– but it was shifted around on the schedule this year due to the Olympics, so it now follows the PGA. This has resulted in a slightly stronger field than usual, as several on-the-bubble Ryder Cup guys who may have skipped had the tournament been held in June have now decided to play. You still wouldn’t call the field “elite”, but it’s certainly stronger than you would expect the week after a major.
TPC River Highlands is where the magic happens; it’s a par-70 that is extremely short by Tour standards (6,841 yards) and yields plenty of low scores. The most noteworthy part of the course is the three-hole stretch on the back nine known as the “Golden Triangle,” which features a drivable par-4 (no. 15), a par-3 over water (no. 16), and a demanding par-4 in which water comes into play both off the tee and on the approach (no. 17). Dramatic finishes are a regular occurrence at this tournament, as last year’s playoff between Bubba Watson and Paul Casey marked the sixth time in the past 12 years that extra holes have been needed to crown a champion.
Bubba prevailed in that playoff, of course, giving him another Travelers Championship title to go along with the one he won in 2010. It shouldn’t be a surprise, then, that he heads BETDAQ’s Win Market this week, but a word of caution: Bubba’s last top-10 was way back in March, a whopping nine starts ago. It’s certainly not unheard of for a feel-oriented player like him to suddenly snap into form on a course that he likes, but hoping for that type of thing isn’t exactly what I’m looking for in a guy at the top of the market. Plus, this event has a history of surprise champions– names like Kevin Streelman (’14) and Ken Duke (’13)– so I’d be a little careful about backing big names with short prices this week. Here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Paul Casey (32.0)- Last year was the first time that Casey laid eyes on TPC River Highlands and he seemed to like what he saw, as he finished the week at 16-under and lost in a playoff. He’s been absolutely puring the ball this year, ranking in the top-25 on Tour in both Greens in Regulation and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and he’s had some very strong weeks, racking up five top-10s, including two in majors. One of those came at last week’s PGA, when Casey managed to break 70 in all four rounds and wound up finishing 10th, so we know he’s playing well at the moment. And he’s been Mr. Sunday of late, shooting par or better in 11 of his past 12 final rounds and 68 or lower in four of his past five. There’s a lot to like here.
Martin Laird (68.0)- Laird has quietly put together a really nice stretch of golf, producing three top-25 finishes in his last four starts, including two top-10s. He nearly won the Canadian Open a couple of weeks ago, so the taste of contending is fresh in his mouth, and he’s been putting the ball in the fairway much more regularly than he was earlier in the year, when he was struggling with the driver. Plus, he played well in this tournament last year, closing with three straight 67s to tie for 15th. Laird is being overlooked by most this week, but at a price like 68.0 he may be the best value on the board.
Chris Stroud (150.0)- Stroud hasn’t done anything spectacular lately but he’s made the cut in each of his past two starts, which means he knows where the ball is going. This is a “horses for courses” pick, really– Stroud has never missed the cut in eight career appearances at this event, and his record includes four top-20s and a near-miss in 2013, when he lost to Ken Duke in a playoff. In other words, the man knows his way around TPC River Highlands. This is a big week for him, too, as he’s currently ranked 131st in the FedEx Cup standings and needs a couple of solid performances to secure a spot in the Playoffs. All things considered, Stroud seems like an absolute steal at the current price.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Brooks Koepka (1.91) vs. Branden Grace (1.76)
Koepka wasn’t a popular pick last week thanks to a nagging ankle injury but he played surprisingly well, hanging out near the top of the leaderboard and eventually tying for 4th. His lackluster performance in last year’s Travelers Championship (T51) doesn’t concern me quite as much as the ankle and the fact that this tournament is the week after a major, when a young guy like Koepka may struggle with preparation and preparedness. Grace has been brilliant over the past couple of months, racking up five top-10s in his last seven PGA Tour starts, including a win at the RBC Heritage and top-5s at both the U.S. Open and last week’s PGA Championship. Recommendation: Grace at 1.76
Matt Kuchar (1.91) vs. Patrick Reed (1.91)
Yes, Kuchar missed the cut at the PGA last week, continuing his disappointing run in major championships this year. Fortunately for him there are plenty of other tournaments on the schedule, and in non-majors Kuchar has been a veritable cash register this season, recording a staggering nine top-10 finishes, including three 3rd-place showings, since the WGC Match Play back in March. Reed has also been a fixture in the top-10, but his record in this event is a little troubling, with two missed cuts and zero top-15 finishes in four career appearances. Recommendation: Kuchar at 1.91
