9-2 FROM 12.0 A CRAZY WINNER: Wild market fluctuations greeted a Daqman winner, Notice (WON 9-2), at Yarmouth yesterday. Notice drifted out to 12.0 at one stage following the plunge on Alsacienne (3rd 4-5), but that one had been absent nearly a year and struggled for room on the rails.
SATURDAY BIG-RACE SPECIAL ABC: Today is the first ABC Guide with Daqman’s top rating, a see-how-they-won check and trainerform for the race. It’s all for the Celebration Mile at Goodwood on Saturday.
GROUNDHOG-DAY ‘HIDDEN HORSE’: Today Daqman finds a plot horse at Musselburgh at 18.0 in the BETDAQ orange this morning, seemingly set for a Groundhog Day repeat of last year’s scenario when she scored at 16-1 on the back of a reappearance flop.
CELEBRATION MILE NEW-LOOK ABC GUIDE
4.30 Goodwood, Saturday (Celebration Mile) Only nine are left in the one-mile Group-2 contest, which invariably goes to three-year-olds, focusing the attention on just two.
This ABC relates each horse to the stats of the race, with its history as a guide, including the form of trainers in the past, and key races to Saturday’s contest. It also has my top rating (R).
A Three-year-olds (6/7; no runner in 2013)
B Won Group 2, 3 or Listed (10/10)
C In first five in Group 1 (9/9)
D Group 1 runner as 2yo (5/6)
E Light season (3-6 runs 9/10)
R Daqman Top Rating
(+) TRAINERFORM Sir Michael Stoute’s form in the race: 1100112111 (to 2009). Saeed Bin Siroor: 1010401331 (to 2010)
ABE (+) Thikriyaat
The Azamour gelding has won four out of five but (there’s always a ‘but’, isn’t there; and there are three here)..
Thikriyaat’s Jersey Stakes win at Royal Ascot was on soft, which is unlikely to be the case on Saturday.
And in his subsequent Group 3 at Goodwood he came home from Forge, who was well beaten off subsequently at York.
Moreover, Forge was also just behind Thikriyaat in the Jersey Stakes off 101. The two defeats of Forge make Thikriyaat no more than 106 not the 110 rating the handicapper gives him.
ABER Zonderland
Thikriyaat pips Zonderland for first place here because of the dominance of Sir Michael Stoute in this race.
The plus for Zonderland is that he beat his elders in a Group 3 at Salisbury. The minus is that they were only handicappers.
But Zonderland provides the explanation as to why it is that Thikriyaat got high ratings for beating Forge.
The answer is that a 107-rated Zonderland (sixth in the Guineas) beat Forge nearly three lengths in the Heron Stakes (Listed) at Sandown.
Zonderland pulled Forge up pushed Thikriyaat up!
BCDE Toormore
In the last two seasons has won two Group-2 mile races on an easy surface (officially good to soft in each case), the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood last July and the Sandown Mile in the Spring.
Largely a nearly horse in his performances surrounding those two, albeit attempted no fewer than six Group 1s, including third in the Prix de la Foret at the Arc meeting and more recently fourth to The Gurkha in the Sussex Stakes. Only twice out of the first five in 13 starts in two years.
DE Lightning Spear
Won four in a row, just like Toormore at the start of his career but there the comparison ends. The Pivotal entire has never won again (seven appearance over two years). Toormore was four lengths in front of him in the Sussex Stakes.
BCE Arod
So-frustrating nearly horse; must be one of few to be raised only a pound after finishing fourth in the Derby (2014).
Has raced off around 118 for an entire year. Beat Lightning Spear in the Ascot Summer Mile and second in the Sussex Stakes in 2015. Not so hot in series of five Group-1s since.
BE So Beloved
Won handicaps over a mile but has stuck to 7f in Group races, a winner and twice placed in grade 3; not so far effective on firm ground. Hasn’t budged off 113 rating since last October; second only last week to Nemoralia at York.
BC Gabrial
Has failed to hack it in the Pattern from 13 attempts, often close to a good winner (2nd in this race last year and 3rd in the British Champions Mile) but has bagged only a solitary Listed at Windsor since winning the Lincoln in 2015.
BE Breton Rock
The handicapper says he’s stood still (112-113) since winning the Group-2 Hungerford Stakes two years ago. Third in this Celebration race last year and back to form on the last day, he was heavily backed to take advantage of heavy ground at Newmarket in June.
B Hathal
Not seen for nearly a year since taking a 7f Listed at Newbury (soft) after dropping to a handicap at York from failures at Group-3 level. He was beaten in the handicap, too.
HE’LL BOLT UP FOR CATTERICK KING COLE
3.20 Catterick Only one favourite has won in the decade and only one carried 9st 7lb. It was the same horse, and that could apply again here with Baron Bolt, one of three sent up to Catterick today by Paul Cole who has a 50% record there.
The handicapper tries the stopper of 9lb for a course-and-distance win at the beginning of July but he still looks likely to hold the third that day, Baby Ballerina.
The rain won’t stop him – he’s won and been placed twice on the soft -but it may affect Dyllan, Il Piccolo Grande and Hijran, all winners on firm, and Mywayistheonlyway’s rise in the weights has pushed him up a grade, with blinkers exchanged for visor.
You could fancy the Kevin Ryan runner Brilliant Vanguard to bolt clear of the Baron as a class-4 scorer who won his maiden on soft and is something of a hidden horse, probably having failed the last twice because he was up in class 3.
But will he last out today’s trip? His two successes have come over 6f and he’s been down the field in his two tries at 7f. His SP of 25-1 for both those races suggests that he wasn’t expected to take a hand in the finish of either one.
18.0 LADY IN REPEAT MUSSELBURGH PLOT
3.00 Musselburgh Last June, Thorntoun Lady reappeared after 10 months’ absence and ran a stinker, last of eight at Ayr.
The handicapper in his kindness dropped the mare 2lb to her lowest ever mark, and only nine days later she won here at Musselburgh at 16-1.
Exactly 11 days ago, Thorntoun Lady reappeared at Domcaster after nine months’ absence and ran a stinker, 13 of 15.
Result: the handicapper, even more soft-hearted, has dropped her 5lb to a mark within 2lb of her last winning rating. And here she is again at Musselburgh, 18.0 outsider in the BETDAQ orange.
3.30 Musselburgh La Fritillaire goes for a hat-trick, worse off with the third horse at Ripon on the last day, La Bacouetteuse but will the 11-year-old, who is a rear runner, still have the zip to dog this small field and produce a finish?
Cosmic Tigress and Pencaitland are maidens on the Flat and, at only four years old, La Fritillaire can improve the few pounds by which she’s penalised.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9; banker 10)
BET 5pts win PRUFROCK (2.40 Lingfield)
BET 2pts win and place DI’S GIFT (2.50 Catterick)
BET 2pts win and place THORNTOUN LADY (3.00 Musselburgh)
BET 8pts win BARON BOLT (3.20 Catterick)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) LA FRITILLAIRE (3.30 Musselburgh)
BET 7pts win TREVISANI (7.40 Kempton)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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