NFL WEEK 1: Handicapping the first week of the NFL season is a lot like getting married for the first time: it’s a total crapshoot, and the excitement for getting started makes it so that any pains or frustrations that may arise in the future are but distant concerns when the adventure begins. And it can be quite an adventure, as any NFL enthusiast knows, but our task is to ensure that it’s a profitable adventure. In this way, it’s nothing at all like marriage…
The action gets underway on Thursday night with a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl, as Cam Newton and the Panthers travel to Denver to face a Broncos team that will be breaking in a new quarterback. A full Sunday is then followed by a double-header on Monday night, so opportunity abounds this week. Here are my favorite games:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (Atl -2.5, 47.5)
Recommendation: Atlanta -2.5 at 1.91
The Falcons should be downright explosive on offense this season after shoring up the line and bolstering the receiving corps in free agency, and I suspect they’ll overwhelm a Tampa defense that finished 26th in the league in points allowed last year.
The Bucs have some exciting offensive talent themselves, but young quarterback Jamies Winston is careless with the ball at times and the Atlanta defense is better than people give it credit for, especially in the secondary, where cornerbacks Robert Alford and Desmond Truant have become a formidable tandem.
Interesting subplot here: longtime Falcons coach Mike Smith is now the defensive coordinator in Tampa, so he surely has a few ideas about how to slow down Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Co. That said, Ryan practiced against Smith’s defense every day for years, so he presumably knows how best to attack the scheme. This is one of those “game within a game” things that will be fun to watch on Sunday.
Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans (Hou -6, 44)
Recommendation: Chicago +6 at 1.91
I think it’s just about time to pump the brakes on the Houston Hype Train– I’m not convinced that Brock Osweiler is going to be a clear upgrade over Brian Hoyer, and J.J. Watt’s injury status is a dark cloud hanging over the defense.
Watt is apparently going to try to play on Sunday, but he had back surgery just over a month ago and was a non-participant throughout training camp and the preseason. How much can realistically be expected of him? And if the unquestioned lynchpin of the defense is compromised, what can we expect out of a Texans unit that has been wildly inconsistent over the past couple of years?
I fully expect Chicago to make tremendous strides on defense this season, just as all of John Fox’s teams seem to do in his second year. And Fox has some of “his guys” in the fold now after the Bears were extremely active in free agency, so he’ll no longer be trying to fit square pegs into round holes. As for the offense… well, longtime readers of this column know my feelings on Jay Cutler. Let’s just say I’m hoping for (and expecting) a low-scoring game. Six is too many points.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (Dal -1, 46)
Recommendation: New York +1 at 1.87
Cowboys rookie quarterback Dak Prescott has been getting a lot of love in the preseason, but I’m entirely unconvinced that he’s going to lead the ‘Boys to many (any?) victories. Opposing defenses will load the box and try to force Prescott to beat them with his arm, which, unless he’s improved leaps and bounds since he was at Mississippi St. last season, he will not be able to do.
The Giants added some impactful veteran players to bolster their defense– instant starters like Olivier Vernon, Damon Harrison, and Janoris Jenkins. If they can shore up that side of the ball they should be a playoff contender, because their offense is a known commodity.
It’s always a little scary and unwise to be making proclamations about the season before a single game has been played, but the Cowboys have the look of a team that could be truly wretched on both sides of the ball. Can the defense hold it together like they did last season, or will they sink to the bottom of the rankings without their best run defender, linebacker Rolando McClain? I’m betting on the latter scenario. (remember kids: lay off the purple drank)
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (LA -2.5, 43)
Recommendation: L.A. -2.5 at 1.87
Admittedly, I’m one of those people with just enough lingering respect for Chip Kelly to take seriously the notion that he might just turn lemons into lemonade in San Francisco. Maybe I’m giving Kelly a little too much credit here, but I can’t help but wonder if he has a rabbit up his sleeve– will we see Blaine Gabbert, he of the 71.9 career QB rating, suddenly transform into Marcus Mariota 2.0? Will an underwhelming running back rotation produce a Pro Bowler and/or a top-5 rushing attack?
The fact anyone would even consider these questions after what we saw out of the Niners last year is testament to Kelly’s perceived genius. Key word there is “perceived”– we’ll soon find out whether Kelly is indeed a football savant or just a collegiate-level coordinator with a New Age vibe.
For now, I’m going with the common sense approach: Gabbert has been dreadfully bad throughout his pro career, his current supporting cast is certainly underwhelming on paper, and he’ll be facing a Rams defense that has a chance to be one of the NFL’s best this season. Oh, and did I mention that San Fran ranked 29th in the NFL in total defense last year? I believe in miracles, but I generally bet against them happening.
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