CANADIAN OPEN: The PGA Tour heads north of the border this week for golf’s third oldest national open, the Canadian Open, which was first staged in 1904 and counts among its champions some of the true legends of the sport. While the event has faded in prominence in recent decades, it’s still hugely significant to Canadian-born players, as evidenced by the emotional spectacle around Nick Taylor’s victory three years ago, when he became the tournament’s first Canadian champion. Last year saw New Zealand’s Ryan Fox hoist the trophy after outlasting Sam Burns in a playoff, and if you like Fox’s chances of defending his title, he can currently be had at a whopping 90.0 on the BETDAQ Exchange.
Considering the U.S. Open is next week and many of the top guys are already at Shinnecock preparing, I think tournament organizers have to be pleased with this week’s field. World No. 7 Tommy Fleetwood (13.0) is in attendance, as are other big names like Matt Fitzpatrick (17.0), Collin Morikawa (16.0), Justin Rose (36.0), and Brooks Koepka (40.0), plus the Canadian contingent headlined by the likes of Taylor (46.0), Mackenzie Hughes (70.0), and Corey Conners (85.0). Though the weather is expected to be a little dicey early in the week, with 25 mph winds and a 40-60% chance of rain forecasted for Thursday/Friday, it should be warm and sunny over the weekend, and we can expect the galleries to swell.
This tournament moves around quite a bit and has been staged at 38 different courses over the last 100 years, but this year it’s a return to TPC Toronto’s North Course, which hosted the event for the first time in 2025. Originally designed by Doug Carrick in 2001 before being reworked by former Carrick apprentice Ian Andrew three years ago, TPC Toronto is a longish par-70, tipping out at 7,389 yards of narrow fairways, smaller than average greens, and lush bentgrass rough. Last year was the first time the course has hosted an event of this magnitude, and it held up pretty well, with no players reaching 20-under for the week (winning score was 18-under) and a 3-under cut. Considering the possible inclement weather early in the week plus the greens crew and tournament committee now knowing more about what works and what doesn’t in terms of course setup, I would expect scores to be a bit higher this year. It won’t be Shinnecock, but it won’t be a walk in the park, either.
Here are three I’ll be backing this week:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Sam Burns (16.0)- While the price may appear a bit short for a guy who hasn’t won on Tour since 2023, the deeper you look at the numbers this week, the better the case becomes for Burns. He’s been playing some terrific golf over the past couple of months, finishing 26th or better in 6 of his last 8 starts, including a T4 at The Memorial last week, when he was the only player in the field to break par all four rounds. His putting has been incredible this season, as he’s hovered around the top-5 in strokes gained putting all year (currently 4th) and ranks 1st in putting from 10-15 feet… a big reason why he’s top-20 in birdie average. TPC Toronto proved a perfect fit for his game last year and he nearly hoisted the trophy, losing on the 4th playoff hole to Ryan Fox after firing 18-under for the week. He’s in better form now, and a better result certainly isn’t out of the question.
Mac Meissner (65.0)- If you’re looking for an under the radar guy with a legit chance for a big week, look no further than Meissner. True, he missed the cut here last year, but he was in poor form at the time and that is definitely not the case this time around. Heading into The Memorial last week Meissner was 64-under par in his previous four events, and though he struggled a bit at Jack’s place, I have a hunch he’ll get right back on track at the much more forgiving TPC Toronto. He’s normally steady and consistent, ranking in the top-20 on Tour in both scoring average and bogey avoidance, but his putter has caught fire over the past month and it has propelled him to new heights: three top-10s in his last five starts, including a T3 at the Charles Schwab Challenge two weeks ago. He’s hot, the course this week is scorable, and his price is juicy. I’m in.
Aldrich Potgieter (100.0)- We saw last year with Fox’s victory that TPC Toronto is friendly to bombers, and there may be no one in pro golf who hits it further than Potgieter, who leads the PGA Tour in averaging a whopping 328.4 yards per drive. He’s parlayed his length and aggressive style into a nice year highlighted by 5th-place showing at the Genesis Invitational, with recent highlights that include four consecutive made cuts and a T14 at the Cadillac Championship three starts ago. He broke through with his maiden PGA Tour victory at last year’s Rocket Classic, so he’s proven that he has the stones to close the deal on Sunday, and, for what it’s worth, international players have seen a lot of success in this tournament over the years (Potgieter is South African). The price is right, too.
