CHELTENHAM: SEE HOW THEY WON: Where do the Cheltenham Festival winners come from? What career span; what races? Daqman fills in some of the answers as he continues his ‘See How They Won’ series today.
CHELTENHAM: THURLES POINTERS: The Kinloch Brae has recently been won by a Gold Cup winner, and there are other races at Thurles today which could produce Cheltenham pointers.
BANKER TO BACK UP NAP STRIKE: Daqman, who has landed four naps from five in each of the first two weeks of the new year, has left it late this week but was on the right side of a photo-finish yesterday with Wicked Willy (WON 11-10). He has a banker today.
YANWORTH A YOUNG CHAMPION
Black marks against the missing champions. Willie Mullins suggests that the last two Champion Hurdle winners will be ready to defend his stable’s hold on the race but Faugheen and Annie Power, both aged nine now, have a double negative against them.
NEGATIVES: Only two horses in the decade have won aged older than 7: that’s against Annie Power, Faugheen and Jezki, who are 9; Vroum Vroum Mag is 8. No winner had failed to prep in their season: Annie Power, Faugheen.
KEY RACES: Eight of the last 10 winners had finished in the first four at a previous Cheltenham festival in the Champion Hurdle, World Hurdle, Neptune, Supreme Novices Hurdle, or Triumph Hurdle.
That gives you: Annie Power, Apple’s Jade, Faugheen, Jezki, Nichols Canyon, Yanworth
CAREER: Seven of the 10 had won five or more hurdles and had at least a 50% strike rate: Annie Power (12-14), Faugheen (10-11), Nichols Canyon (8-15), Yanworth (6-7), Vroum Vroum Mag (6-8), Apple’s Jade (5-8). If Brain Power runs and wins before the race, he would have 5-8.
RATINGS: The young pretenders are only a notch behind Annie Power (166) but 10lb off Faugheen (176). They are: Yanworth 164, Brain Power 162, Nichols Canyon 162, Petit Mouchoir 162, Apple’s Jade 153.
Verdict: Of the horses that tick the boxes, Yanworth and Nichols Canyon are young pretenders who have turnkey form traces and ratings. It’s a field of excellent quality but several are engaged elsewhere at the meeting.
LUCK BE A LADY AT THURLES
12.10 Thurles Willie Mullins’ Timi Roli was in my original Fortune Cookies squad for the season but has been absent 60 days since a promising maiden third at Cork and there are mixed messages from that race.
The winner, Peace News, has flopped since but the runner-up, Chirico Vallis, has run third to Any Second Now, who surprised odds-on Crack Mome (also Mullins) at Punchestown.
Timi Roli has to give up to 16lb under the conditions of today’s maiden, including the only four-year-old, Icario, who travelled well in a big field at Punchestown on the last day and has teen ace Jack Kennedy doing the steering. Cario is 6.2 in the BETDAQ and a place bet should cover the win stake.
2.15 Thurles (Ladbrokes Kinloch Brae Chase) Willie Mullins saddles one of his top novices of 2015-16, Black Hercules, for the race won two years running by Gold Cup hero Don Cossack.
But, like Faugheen and Annie Power, the Don has not been seen since, and in fact has been retired.
Black Hercules, winner of the JLT at Cheltenham the day before Don Cossack’s gold coup, fluffed his lines twice in December, diminishing his standing on the steeplechase stage, down to a 156 rating, the placed horses in the JLT also failing to score since.
Meanwhile, Sub Lieutenant has shot up 17lb in the rankings for beating the subsequent Lexus winner, Outlander, before the pair were placed behind Djakadam in the John Durkan.
David Mullins is 3-3 on Sub Lieutenant, for whom today’s race ‘looks ideal’, according to trainer Henry De Bromhead.
Four of Sizing John’s last five places have been behind Douvan and he hasn’t been out of the frame since April 2014. The drying ground on a sunny day at Thurles may again condemn him to place prizemoney only, particularly as this is a prep for the Irish Gold Cup.
2.50 Thurles Westerner Lady is another Mullins runner to have had a long holiday but she earned it after six wins out of seven in the summer and autumn.
Should get back on track here and follow a similar rise and rise as Annie Power and Vroum VroumMag, who won this race in 2015.
TIZZARD SET FOR A NATIONAL
3.20 Wincanton (Somerset National) Colin Tizzard’s world – and, indeed, the world of top jumps racing though his stable – has changed since he won this National last year at 14-1.
Golden Chieftain had already won the Southern National when he took this after success in a veterans’ race. But his runner today, Sartorial Elegance, is just six years old, and had his only chase success at Plumpton in December.
Expect a strong pace via Abracadabra Sivola, As De Fer and Barton Gift, and it’s a question of who lasts out the 3m 2f in the ground. The stamina box is ticked by As De Fer, Dawson City, Morney Wing, Barton Gift and Sartorial Elegance.
Strictly at the weights, Dawson City, who was runner-up to Golden Chieftain in this race last year, has the edge on Morney Wing from their Sussex National 1-2.
But Sartorial Elegance was closing on the leaders that day when he unseated rider at the 17th fence, and is otherwise progressive. I took 6.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BACK 3pts win and place ICARIO (12.10 Thurles)
BACK 9pts win SUB LIEUTENANT (2.15 Thurles)
BANKER: BACK 10pts win (nap) WESTERNER LADY (2.50 Thurles)
BACK 4pts win and place SARTORIAL ELEGANCE (3.20 Wincanton)
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