10 BANKERS AND ANOTHER ONE TODAY: Daqman goes into Saturday with 10 winning bankers out of 15 this year, and another one today in the Ascot Chase:
WON 5-6 O O Seven
WON 1-1 Two Smokin Barrels
WON 4-6 Westerner Lady
WON 1-5 Yorkhill
WON 1-2 Un De Sceaux
WON 8-11 Lets Dance
WON 1-1 Un Prophete
WON 4-9 Frodon
WON 8-13 Bandon Roc
WON 2-1 Watersmeet
DAQMAN 14-8 UP OVER PRICEWISE: At the other end of the scale – the hunt for big value bets – he faces Pricewise of the Racing Post today in the 1.50, 2.25 and 3.35 Ascot and in the 3.15 Haydock Grand National trial. The scores are Daqman 14, Pricewise 8, with Daqman 28 points up and Pricewise nine down.
TAKE THE LION’S SHARE AT HAYDOCK
Head in the lion’s mouth! In nominating Blaklion and Cue Card for my horses-to-follow list this week, I declared that Cue Card was included just for the Ascot Chase today. And that Blaklion would probably need the run in the Haydock Grand National Trial.
This morning I have to go for both in today’s races, in the light of Nigel Twiston-Davies’ super-bullish ‘I’ll be absolutely gutted if Blaklion doesn’t run really well.’ But there are other reasons.
1.30 Haydock (Victor Ludorum) This has produced top-class winners in the last two years, Frodon and Top Notch, and both Don Bersy and Most Celebrated come to it with good credentials.
3.15 Haydock (Grand National Trial) The track is unlikely to be the ‘heavy’ of eight of the last nine years. It’s good to soft and drying. That’s a big bonus for horses of quality in the top half of the handicap.
Blaklion (5.7 on BETDAQ this morning) is safely into the Grand National off 152, number 24 in the field off 10st 10lb, which will be perfect as long as Champagne West stays in, whether Team Gigginstown turns up or not.
Most winners of this trial had races in January or February. Blaklion, Wakanda, David Pipe’s Vieux Lion Rouge and Aqalim have not been seen this year, though all bar Blaklion have won after a long holiday.
But I find it very difficult to put my money on a Pipe horse after a sequence of 24 losers up to yesterday; Aqalim is a quirky sort; and Wakanda not a big horse to be carrying weight
Houblon des Obeaux has run some cracking staying races – first four in the Welsh National and the Warwick Classic – but has never actually won beyond 3m though he’s 10 now, and he’s scored only once in three years.
Dark horse is Cresswell Breeze, who should enjoy the step up in trip as a 3m hurdles winner, but she and in-form Goodtoknow both prefer soft-heavy.
The Racing Post tipsters don’t fill you with confidence when Pricewise says one thing of Cresswell Breeze (‘she is taking a step up in class’) and Gerald Delamere says another (‘she has been chasing black type and is now back in a handicap’).
But both go for the mare so my guess is they’ve had a tip for the horse and are trying to justify the selection. Either that or they’re treating the race like a soft-ground handicap, and are carried away by the light weight.
Vicente is too big at 15.0 this morning, though he has to bounce back and there isn’t much encouragement from Paul Nicholls this morning. He will like the sounder surface and is within a pound of his Scottish National winning mark.
CUE CARD AN ACE BANKER AT ASCOT
1.50 Ascot (Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase) Though most of these are unexposed over fences, the race is invariably won by young pretenders below the age of eight, and in 2014 O’Faolains Boy (see 2.25 race today) took it en route to surprise success the RSA Chase.
Arpege d’Alene, who holds Label Des Obeaux (withdrawn) and Laurium on December form, gets my vote.
Flintham and Big Bad John both like to get on with it and could set it up for Paul Nicholls’ stayer, who is headed for the four-miler at Cheltenham. Fletchers Flyer is nine and would mark this as a bad race, were he to win it.
2.25 Ascot O’Faolain’s Boy, previous winner of the Reynoldstown, beat Sausalito Sunrise easily in the prep race used by Sausalito before he won this off a 5lb lower market last year. But the Boy’s stable is badly out of form. And he hasn’t raced for 337 days.
Go Conquer has the pluses of a low weight and a liking for the soft ground but the minuses of never having won beyond 2m 4f and a preference for front-running, as has Tenor Nivernais who has also never won at the trip, though was third in the Ascot Silver Cup in December.
They will have to be held up up for this 3m but, with so many pace horses in the race, might not have the stamina left to get in on the finish.
Chef d’Oeuvre and Cloudy Too both like to front-run, and I fancy they might try to get away from this field.
That makes 12.5 Cloudy too on BETDAQ this morning a potential trade, but I think the targeting of the race again by Sausalito Sunrise (6.6) suggests he’s the business and the unexposed Chef d’Oeuvre (4.6) the danger.
2.45 Wincanton (Kingwell Hurdle) Two previous winners of this, Rayvin Black and Melodic Rendezvous, are unlikely to halt the rise and rise of Yanworth, who beat Ch’Tibello at Kempton on Boxing Day.
Yanworth is not ground dependent, whereas SceauyRoyal, who slammed Ravin Black on good ground here in November, was left for dead by Irving on the soft at Newcastle.
3.35 Ascot Chase I tipped up Cue Card for this in my Cheltenham Cavalry feature. He won it way back in 2013 but seems to have frightened off the strongest opposition today, 6lb clear in the ratings.
He’s in my horses to follow for this race only.
3.05 Gowran Park (Red Mills Trial Hurdle) This was a stepping stone for World Hurdle winner, Solwhit (2009).
Now Jezki has been backed for the Stayers Hurdle, with a decision said to be dependent on the outcome of today’s clash with Sutton Place and Limini. But they’re not running! So no test at all.
In fact, Sutton Place now goes for the Boyne Hurdle at Navan tomorrow and Limini is at Punchestown on Wednesday in the Quevega Mares Hurdle. See you then, then.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points unless stated)
BET 12pts to win 20 ARPEGE D’ALENE (1.50 Ascot)
BET 8pts win CHEF d’OEUVRE and 5pts win SAUSALITO SUNRISE (2.25 Ascot)
BET 6pts win BLAKLION, and 2pts win and place VICENTE (3.15 Haydock)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) CUE CARD (3.35 Ascot)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2 x 4pts win trebles DON BERSEY and MOST CELEBRATED (1.30 Haydock) with YANWORTH (2.45 Wincanton) and CUE CARD (3.35 Ascot)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
