LUCKY-7 CHELTENHAM ANTE-POST BETS: Here’s Daqman’s BETDAQ ante-post round-up as part of his Cheltenham Countdown with 12 days to go. It includes seven bets placed between February 14 and today’s date, among them those at offers of 48.0, 31.0, 18.0 and 12.0.
50-POINT NAPS DOUBLE: FLAT AND JUMPS: Today Daqman has a rare naps double for more than 50 points, one at Taunton over Jumps plus, on the Flat (AW), one of his old bankers is back at a huge price at Chelmsford, when you consider he’s already beaten the favourite and is better off with him at the weights.
CHELTENHAM: 18.0 CUE FOR VALUE
You can Betdaq bet on all races at Cheltenham. And there are Cheltenham Specials on particular owners, trainers, horses and distances.
It’s 5.0 Gigginstown to be top owners, where they are 7-2 with bookmakers. If you prefer the hot favourite, J P McManus, you can take 21.0 that he lands all three of his bankers: Cantlow, On The Fringe and Unowhwatimeanharry.
There’s a tasty double Cue Card (Gold Cup) with Death Duty (Albert Bartlett) at an enhanced 18.0, where the combined odds with most bookmakers are 12-1.
If you think Colin Tizzard has the Gold Cup in the bag with either Cue Card or Native River, you can get a ‘a British trained winner’ at 2.0, which also allows for a turn-up!
Here is Daqman’s up-to-date list of ante-post bets, with the date the bets were struck; quotes from his column that day; and the latest prices.
Ballykan, Southfield Royale and Tombstone are today added to the list, which he started more than two weeks ago. Here’s his lucky seven so far:
BALLYANDY (February 16 for Supreme Novice Hurdle; Tuesday, March 14, Cheltenham): 12.0 BETDAQ to win 100. Now 8.4 on BETDAQ, 5-1 in places with bookmakers.
‘The Press declared the hat-trick winner Clyne was flattered by his length second to The New One last month after the winner had been slammed by Yanworth in the Christmas Hurdle.
‘The handicapper has cut The New One’s rating to 163 but his 164 for Yanworth then looks mean. Even meaner is the 148 for Clyne. If he can’t have 154 (pound for pound correct) for being a length off The New One at Haydock, then let’s split the difference and make him a 151.
‘In that case, Ballyandy and Movewiththetimes, the one-two six lengths clear of Clyne in Saturday’s big hurdle, are 157 animals not their official 147’.
BALLYKAN (March 2 for Brown Advisory Plate; Thursday, March 16, Cheltenham): 31.0 BETDAQ to win 100; as low as 22-1 with bookmakers.
Winners of the Brown Advisory Plate have been rated 142 and 140 (twice) in the last three seasons, and Nigel Twiston-Davies’s Ballykan – racing off 140 – is a ‘hidden horse.’
After back-to-back wins over the Plate trip of around 2m 4f, he’s been campaigned largely at 3m, including in a Grade 3, acquitting himself well.
BRAIN POWER (February 14 for Champion Hurdle; Tuesday, March 14, Cheltenham); 8.8 BETDAQ to win 100; as low as 13-2 in places with bookmakers.
‘Two factors make Brain Power a Cheltenham horse: he stays really well (and how, if his dam’s side, containing an Irish National winner, has anything to do with it!) Second of all, he needs good ground.
‘While he’s been keeping his feet dry after back-to-back success in December, his stablemate Buveur d’Air has seen off the Champion Hurdle upstarts so convincingly that he’s favourite in most books for the title.’
LORD WINDERMERE (February 25 for Grand National; Saturday, April 8, Liverpool); 60.0 BETDAQ, now 40-1 in places with bookmakers.
‘He is being allowed to run off 147, a drop of 18lb since his peak just four races ago, despite defeat by only a short-head at Thurles in November’.
MASTER BLUEYES (February 25 for Triumph Hurdle; Friday, March 17, Cheltenham): 48.0 BETDAQ to win 100; now 8.4; and as low as 7-1 in places with bookmakers.
Daqman warned before he won the Adonis Hurdle (February 25): ‘Master Blueyes has surprised Alan King and may yet be a Cheltenham contender.’
SOUTHFIELD ROYALE (March 2 for Kim Muir; Thursday March 16, Cheltenham; 14-1 Corals).
Nine times out of 10, BETDAQ offers are much better than the bookies’ fixed odds but, occasionally, when Betdaq backers and layers are wiser, you have to grab a bookmaker offer; surely Corals or Ladbrokes.
Nine times out of 10, the handicapper is lambasted by owners and trainers. Occasionally, he makes a mistake or lets one through, and dropping Southfield Royale 6lb is one of them.
Neil Mulholland’s stayer is a hidden horse in that he needs further than the 3m he’s run over the last twice.
Fourth in the NH Chase (4m) at the festival last season, and had a promising run back at the end of January: 14-1 Corals
TOMBSTONE (March 2 for Coral Cup; Wednesday, March 15, Cheltenham); 18.0 BETDAQ to win 100; 10-1 and 14-1 with most bookmakers.
Should the ground ride soft at Cheltenham, this one is thrown in, but he would still have to be reckoned with on last year’s Supreme Novice Hurdle result (on good to soft) when fourth to Altior in a race packed with talent (Min and Buveur d’Air were the placed horses).
For some reason, the handicapper ignored his progress, keeping him on 147, despite his consistency in Grade 1 and increasing his rating by only a pound after he turned the tables on Jezki at Gowran Park recently.
Those who filled the places in the Supreme are now rated from 154-160 and Jezki is a 160 (was 167 when Tombstone beat him in the Gowran race, the Red Mills Trial).
10.0 BELMOUNT IS A HIDDEN HORSE
2.30 Taunton Mark Pitman is 2-3 from rare visits to Taunton, and Diamond Life (10.5 on BETDAQ, as I write), who drops two grades, is 8lb lower than when one of the favourites at Lingfield a year ago. Has a squeak in a race of losers.
3.00 Taunton Better ground, and tweaks to his breathing (for which Ditcheat is famous), puts the Group-1 Flat performer Amour De Nuit (4.9 on BETDAQ) in with a chance of recouping loses from two starts over hurdles as favourite.
4.00 Ludlow (Forbra Gold Cup) Horses of a double-figure age don’t win this, and failure to get round in four of their last six starts between them puts me still further off Gallery Exhibition and Valley of Milan, who has won only once outside amateur and a conditional races since 2014.
Grade-3 entered Marcilhac has an 11lb pull on Dusky Lark for his defeat at Ascot in December but has won only one chase and that was back in 2012 at Auteuil.
Also Grade-3 entered, and similarly better off at the weights with Belmount, is the grey Roc d’Apsis., but he was a very long way behind that day at Hereford in the autumn.
And 10.0 BETDAQ offer Belmount looks a hidden horse. You can forgive his form in December and January when he was raised in class, and he couldn’t handle very heavy ground back at Hereford on the first of last month,.
Nansaroy still jumps like the novice he is but it will be interesting to see what this step up in trip achieves.
He’s bred for it; they will jump slower over the 3m; and there may not be quite the glue of his last two starts holding him down.
4.10 Taunton Paul Nicholls’ tries to win the stable’s race with Volpone Jelois, second over CD last month, and getting a stone and more all round in this. A tasty 4.4.
7.25 Chelmsford Watersmeet has already landed us a banker at big odds for the type of bet (his SP was 2-1).
Though he’s 7lb better off than when he beat Winning Story at Wolverhampton in December, he’s playing a 4.5 supporting role to the same horse in the BETDAQ orange this morning, presumably because the favourite has won over the trip.
But Watersmeet is one of those hard-to-catch Mark Johnston front-runners, who has already scored on this very particular surface twice and will takes some pegging back again.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each single bet staked to win 20 points)
BET 2pts win and place DIAMOND LIFE (2.30 Taunton)
BET 5pts win AMOUR DE NUIT (3.00 Taunton)
BET 4pts win NANSAROY, and 2pts win and place BELMOUNT (4.00 Ludlow)
BET 8pts win (Jumps nap) VOLPONE JELOIS (4.10 Taunton)
BET 7pts win (AW Flat nap) WATERSMEET (7.25 Chelmsford)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double VOLPONE JELOIS (4.10 Taunton) and WATERSMEET (7.25 Chelmsford)
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