20-1 PLACE RETURN AS GOOD AS A WINNER: Said Daqman yesterday: ‘20.0 shot can win Midlands National’. Well, no he can’t but Houblon des Obeaux did make a profit by running into the frame, whereas that’s debatable about the rest of Daqman’s Saturday plague of places (seconds at 6-1 and 13-2), so he just takes a point and goes 21-14 in front of Pricewise.
DOUBLE BANKER BETS IN IRELAND: It’s a day of two bankers in Ireland today but Daqman goes for an outsider at Ffos Las. Today’s card at Carlisle was abandoned after officials at the track called a 10am check.
DON’T BE AN ANTE-POST MUG
The bookies know you can’t resist it. You’re fresh from the thrill of Cheltenham, so they’re offering you prices about NEXT YEAR. You would be mad to take them.
If you pause for a moment and think about it, you wouldn’t bet that their three championship favourites, Altior (Champion Chase), Thistlecrack (Gold Cup) and Buveur d’Air (Champion Hurdle) will even line up for those races.
None of the first four in the betting in NOVEMBER for Friday’s Gold Cup got to the track. Not a one. All stakes lost.
I note that, such is the euphoria created this week, pundits who watched a horse called American win a novices’ chase at Uttoxeter on Saturday started raving about him for the Gold Cup.
And this morning American’s trainer, Harry Fry, is quoted as saying the horse could be a Hennessy type. ‘Could’ is the operative word.
Looking at the replay, I would bet that my wager for the race, Rock The Kasbah, would have latched on to him in another quarter of a mile, and he’s only a 142.
Sizing John AT THE SAME AGE won his Gold Cup in a poor year off 167. American has a very long way to go and we can similarly speculate about at least half a dozen novice-chase winners at Aintree, Punchestown, Fairyhouse and all other major Spring meetings to come.
Meanwhile, guess what: the bookies have betting on the Guineas and Derby! They want you at the ante-post trough again. Even though only a third of runners at the front of the winter market end up at the front of the market at the off.
More about that after the Grand National, the only genuine betting race ante-post right now. And, of course, you don’t need bookmakers for that. The race has its own BETDAQ orange.
4.45 Ffos Las Henllan Harri has three wins and a second from five runs on the course but they are spread over almost three years and he hasn’t put back-to-back wins together since 2014.
Bob Ford could be returning to form and Global Power has dropped down the ratings, but they are tired old campaigners and I fancy one of t e novices, Herbert Park or Zephyros Bleu, to overtake them.
The horse that beat Herbert Park on t he last day went to Cheltenham and, though he didn’t get into the big picture, Herbert could advertise their superior form here at a tasty 13.0
SLOWMOTION IN THE LIMERICK MUD
3.45 Navan (Webster Cup) If the conditions of this Grade 2 had read ‘for those you couldn’t get ready in time for Cheltenham’, then that would explain the presence of The Tullow Tank (235 days off), Double Seven (413) and Nearly Nama’d (416).
Perhaps ‘plotting for Fairyhouse’ might be better to describe The Tullow Tank’s comeback (he’s a winner and a second at the Spring meeting there).
‘Plotting for Aintree’ is appropriate to Double Seven, who finished third in the Grand National as 10-1 joint favourite under Tony McCoy, albeit three years ago now.
My point is that I would very much doubt any one of them being ready to skim off this 25,000-euro first prize, and only one of four from the Mozoltov yard of Mouse Morris managed to complete at Cheltenham.
So I’m expecting a return to form by A Toi Phil, whose February flop was not unexpected (started 12-1) in a race which may have come too soon after success over Christmas.
4.00 Limerick Slowmotion is the word for heavy-ground Limerick today but the eponymous five-year-old, switched from Aidan O’Brien’s yard to son Joseph’s, has been quick to play up Grade-2 Juvenile winnings for J P McManus.
Slowmotion has scored back to back over 2m, and her 2m 2f hurdles success in France when only three suggests that the step up in trip today won’t be a problem.
Her nearest rival in the ratings and in the market, Daisy’s Gift, is TWICE her age, and was 31 lengths behind Slowmotion in a Grade-3 hurdle in December, both well held, as you’d expect, by Let’s Dance, who ran away with the Mares’ Novice at Cheltenham on Wednesday.
4.20 Navan (EBF Novice Handicap Chase Final) Five of the eight runners in this last year pulled up, refused or unseated rider, leaving Oscar Knight a moderate second of three finishers.
He is a massively different animal this time around, if the handicapper is correct. He’s up nearly two stone, from 109 to 136, after a Christmas treat for his follows, winning the Foxrock here at Navan and then running third in the PP Chase at Leopardstown.
Oscar Knight has had a long rest since, and may be prepping for the Irish Grand National in April but he’s won when fresh and needs this to get in at Fairyhouse.
He’s currently number 84 in the race off 136 so requires a fattish penalty to move up the ladder and beat the cut.
This Final looks a tall order for Retour En France, who needed a pace horse to fall in front of her at Fairyhouse to get off the mark after a bridesmaid run (222-22 still standing) before and after joining Willie Mullins.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) A TOI PHIL (3.45 Navan)
BANKER: BET 20pts win SLOWMOTION (4.00 Limerick)
BET 6.6pts win OSCAR KNIGHT (4.20 Navan)
BET 1.6pts win and place HERBERT PARK (4.45 Ffos Las)
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