THE CRAVEN MEETING OPENS TODAY: As one festival closes today (the Jumps meeting at Fairyhouse) another one opens (the Craven Meeting on the Flat at Newmarket). Daqman covers both.
CLASSIC TRIALS TO COME THIS WEEK: Tomorrow is the Nell Gwyn Stakes trial for the Oaks and Daqman reckons he has a filly who could be going places. The colts big trial, the Greenham, is at Newbury on Saturday.
THE RACE THAT’S FULL OF WINNERS
The Flat season really starts here. And it’s not so much what you back but what you can find to take out of the race.
I’ll be adding to my Early Birds list – it’s already had six winners – to update it for May. At the same time I’ll be starting a Classic 10 to follow, based on the work at home and the winter progress of last year’s two-year-olds and the trial tests at home and across Europe.
There’s no Brexit for betting. You have to follow what happens in France for Classics purposes, even in America and Australia for Royal Ascot, especially for the sprints.
1.50 Newmarket (Wood Ditton Stakes) This is your first base race, from which the losers’ form has produced no end of winners over the years.
If it’s a good Wood Ditton, you need only back the losers in the race until June to fill your Derby wallet in time for Epsom. Last year four of the first five to finish behind the winner won next time (two) or on the second run afterwards (also two).
William Haggas (Elyaasaat) has won it twice since 2012 and nervously declared on ITV Racing at the weekend: ‘I’m firing all my bullets at Newmarket’.
Both Elyaasaat and Damocles (John Gosden) are tongue-tied for their debuts, which suggests to me that they’re ‘off’ for their life. But you never can tell, and it might even be a modest Wood Ditton.
Eight of the last nine winners have started shortish priced, between 11-8 and 6-1, so one place that can tell you the winner is the BETDAQ market place!
Haggas has eight left in at Newmarket. Check out the declarations and betting for: Elyaasaat (1.50 today); Sea of Grace (3.35) tomorrow); Tasleet (3.00), Rivet (3.35), Isabel’s On It (4.10), Call To Mind (4.45), Daawy (4.45) and Humble Hero (also 4.45 on Thursday)
HANNON HORSE TOO BIG AT 13.0
3.30 Newmarket Be careful if you write out your bets, even if you cursor down the card and scroll up this race. Don’t land on Sacred Act when you mean Secret Art (which in turn can be confused with Timeless Art).
Apart from following the Wood Ditton, three more rules apply today: firstly, you should assume that last year’s three-year-olds crop was ace (until proved otherwise), which means you want to be on this season’s four-year-olds.
Secondly, you need to be on stables in form or early-bird yards who like to score in the first few weeks. Number three, see if there’s any bias in the draw.
Richard Hannon is absolutely flying with seven winners in the last week, and Shaiyem (13.0 offers on BETDAQ this morning) won first time as a two-year-old and was first and second in April and May last year.
Timeless Art was placed on his reappearance and landed a CD win last backend on this Newmarket Rowley Mile course, though he now has to improve a couple of levels from class 4.
Medburn Dream has already done that trick. He won twice last April – in class 5 and class 4 – but stepped up on that with a class-2 success at Chepstow in the summer.
Paul Hanagan has been booked for today but the horse has drifted like a lonely dog on a raft out to 150.0 on BETDAQ, so I reckon he won;’t even run.
4.05 Newmarket (Feilden Stakes) Has produced some fair sorts but then, two years ago, out of the blue, its winner was gilt-edged. Golden Horn scored here for one of seven wins from nine races, including of course the Epsom Derby,
His trainer, John Gosden, has Khalidi primed for this after his place at Doncaster, but winner of the race twice, Mark Johnston, saddles Montataire, already a Listed winner and with an 8lb higher rating.
Law And Order, Lingfield AW Listed winner, is a couple of pounds behind, since he has to give him weight, but 110-rated Salouen is the standout if he can reproduce his Lagardere second and Racing Post third of last backend.
JESSICA POWERS UP HER MODEM
4.40 Fairyhouse While all eyes have been on Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott, Jessica Harrington stole the show – not for the first time – at Fairyhouse yesterday.
And the jockey on board her Irish National winner? Robbie Power, already Mr Aintree 2017 after his sensational rides for Colin Tizzard there.
At this time of year, you not only look for trainers and jockeys in form after the long season but you hope to find fresh horses, particularly those who prefer the going on top.
Maybe the Harrington-Power hope Modem is just such a punt here this afternoon. He’s spent most of his time on the Flat (ran in the Newmarket Cesarewitch) but was a close fourth in the Galway Hurdle at the Ballybrit summer festival. Goes well fresh.
5.15 Fairyhouse I warned you weeks ago that there were 19 Nationals of a sort scattered over England and Ireland. Here’s another one: the new Ladies National for this Fairyhouse festival.
Last season I landed five of nine Nationals I tipped in. This year just three so far. So I’m dipping my oar in here, for an old punt – that’s a defunct coin not a gamble – on Rachael Blackmore who gave Abolitionist such a great ride into third in the Irish National yesterday.
Her mount, here, Smadynium, which sounds like a tektite or piece of crypton, is by the same sire as Smad Place.
Had a great run last year for Rachael and trainer ‘Shark’ Hanlon – two wins and a second – after moving to County Carlow from North Yorkshire.
Has had a holiday and is ‘expected’ to do well, as I infer from a Grade- A entry at the Punchestown Festival. I took 9.8 on BETDAQ this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 1.75pts win and place DAMOCLES and 2pts win (stakes saver) ELYAASAAT (1.50 Newmarket)
BET 1.6pts win and place SHAIYEM (3.30 Newmarket)
BET 10pts win (nap) SALOUEN (4.05 Newmarket)
BET 1.35pts win and place MODEM (4.40 Fairyhouse)
BET 2.25pts win and place SMADYNIUM (5.15 Fairyhouse)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
