DAQMAN SPEEDS TO A 5-4 BANKER: Daqman warmed up for Scottish National weekend with three winning bets yesterday, including a banker nap at odds against and a place at 20-1. The three wins, which included tremendous BETDAQ value, were:
WON 5-4 Shutter Speed (banker nap)
WON 4-1 Gracious Diana (from 9.0 on BETDAQ)
2ND 20-1 Futoon (from 24.0 on BETDAQ)
IT’S A 240-1 BIG-RACE DOUBLE BID: Daqman bids for a big-race value double of up to 240-1 with cross bets in the Scottish National and Newbury Spring Cup. He was just pipped for a 366-1 Lincoln Handicap and Aintree National double with Bravery (WON 20-1) and Cause Of Causes (2ND 16-1).
19.0 GUINEAS ANTE-POST GAMBLE: Daqman’s Early Bird bets have been going great guns and now he aims at the 2,000 Guineas with one running today which is 19.0 on BETDAQ for Newmarket. Daqman is 5-2 winning bets ahead of Pricewise for value and 23 points clear to a single-unit stake (Daqman + 6.50 Pricewise -16.50).
NEWBURY: A FRANKEL DREAM
1.55 Newbury (John Porter Stakes) This is the race Sir Michael Stoute chooses to launch his Group-race improvers, including Saddlers Hall and more recently Hardwicke winners Maraahel, Dartmouth and Harbinger who went on to take the King George.
It’s a worry that Stoute hopes yesterday, Mori and Superioritycomplex were let-downs on the day, but Midterm doesn’t do much at home and is expected to ‘wake up’ on the racecourse as usual.
Broke his maiden here at Newbury, ran second in the Sandown Classic Trial and was not disgraced in the Dante and the Champion Stakes.
These performances earned him a few poubnds more than the other four-year-olds in this, with the exception of front-runner Muntahaa for John Gosden.
2.30 Newbury (Fred Darling Stakes) Gosden the godsend landed a superb fillies double here yesterday via Shutter Speed and Gracious Diana.
There should be another prize for the Gosden fillies with Dabyah in this one. A short-odds Daq Multiples hub.
3.05 Newbury (Greenham Stakes) Team Hannon have taken this four times in the decade and their choice in a 7f or 1m event is always worth your attention: Barney Roy is their man.
But Frankel won this and I put his son, Dream Castle, in my Early Birds, in the hope that he would emulate his sire and make the big leap here to the front of the Guineas betting.
You should take this morning’s 19.0 on BETDAQ in the 2,000 Guineas ante-post orange. Offers could halve in price if he wins this.
SPRING CUP: THE LIKELY LAD
3.40 Newbury (Spring Cup) Only one winner has carried more than 8st 12lb in the last nine years, with four-year-olds winning five times.
Last year’s Classic breed has done well this week and, if we stick to them then, at the weights, we must look carefully at George William and El Hayem, representing trainers who have done so very well in these early stages of the season.
Richard Fahey (Another Touch and Home Cummins) has won the cup three times since 2009 and another touch is possible. There’s not much between Another Touch and George William on collateral form lines.
So I prefer El Hayem for the in-fom Sir Michael Stoute, a lightly raced sort related to Group horses on the dam’s side.
William Haggas (Fastnet Tempest), ‘firing all my bullets at Newmarket’, left the Rowley Mile course with five spent shells, all 5-1 or shorter, two of them favourite, off target with these returns: 00230.
As for Banksea, it’s not Luca Cumani’s time of year and he’s missing strike badly (32330203 current form figures). Donncha is a nearly horse, placed so often in big handicaps without winning. Lacks that killer speed at the business end.
Martyn Meade is on cloud-9 after winning the Craven Stakes and he’s booked Ryan Moore for Chelsea Lad, after the disappointment of missing the cut in the Lincoln.
VERDICT: Chelsea Lad is a bit short at 5.2 but ‘could be anything’. Similarly, El Hayem (13.0) has the look of one of those Michael Stoute potential Group horses in a handicap.
AYR: ESCAPE CAN BE KING
2.45 Ayr (Scottish Champion Hurdle) You’re looking for horses lightly raced this year, probably down the field at the Cheltenham festival or waited with for better ground, and carrying below 11st.
Alan King is overdue a decent spell and Sceau Royal was sixth in the Champion Hurdle. Stablemate Winter Escape was having his first run of the year when fifth in the County Hurdle, with Mohaayed in seventh.
Winter Escape (7.0 on BETDAQ this morning) had been favourite for the Greatwood in November but ran like a sick horse. He was.
The Henderson horses, L’Ami Serge and Peace And Co needs some rain, and the saver has to be Kingy’s Sceau Royal (9.8).
3.20 Ayr Romain De Senam, highly regarded by Paul Nicholls, might have won the Red Rum Chase at Aintree but for a mistake four out.
Now meets the winner, Double Ws, 6lb better, and the one that finished just in front of him, Yorkist, a pound better. Romain is a win and place bet, last chance saloon, on BETDAQ this morning.
NATIONAL: HEAD IN THE CLOUDS
3.55 Ayr (Scottish Grand National) Just one winner this century has carried more than 11st 3lb but be warned that this is a poor renewal, a stone and more lower than usual.
Packing the top of the handicap with quality is Paul Nicholls and, looking right back, it seems that, to crack that weight barrier, you need a young horse, aged seven or eight.
Arpege d’Alene has run three cracking races stepped up beyond 3m, and has almost identical credentials to his last year’s winner, Vicente, coming from just behind the finishers in the NH Chase at Cheltenham.
He might have been closer but for a couple of bad mistakes. These fences are easier and he’s better off with the winner, Missed Approach, who drifted badly in the betting this morning, out to 22.0 on BETDAQ.
Last year’s winner and Arpege’s stablemate, Vicente can run off the same mark, but Arpege d’Alene has been laid out for the race.
That also applies to another seven-year-old Southfield Royale, who finished just in front of Vicente in the NH Chase last season, and now gets 5lb.
He fell in the Kim Muir when Premier Bond was third. He’s also seven but trainer Nicky Henderson has never won any sort of National in his 39 years training.
Dancing Shadow won the Edinburgh National but was tailed off at Cheltenham; Straidnahanna the North Yorkshire National but pulled up in the Eider Chase.
Blakemount has never been out of the first five in 19 consecutive starts, ands several of the usual suspects were behind him in the Midlands National.
But his stablemate, Vintage Clouds, may have a better chance, based on the way he finished in n the Haydock Grand National Trial.
Placed in the Eider, and winner and third in the Warwick Classic, was Shotgun Paddy but he was only 10th in this a year back, and drops cheekpieces for first-time visor.
Drying ground is also against him, as it is Battle Of Shiloh, Cogry, Dawson City, Fine Rightly and Firebird Flyer.
Perhaps because this is usually run at a fast pace, 12-year-olds (four runners this year) have a lean time of it. In fact, only one has won since 1939.
VERDICT: On goodish ground, in a low-quality race, the higher weights and young-improver horses could prevail: Arpege d’Alene (13.0 on BETDAQ this morning) and Southfield Royale (11.5) in particular.
With her yard back to form, Sue Smith’s Vintage Clouds (18.5) looks best of the rest and, of the rank outsiders, Kruzhlinin (at 40.0) is better than the bare form, having so often ‘wasted’ his potential on the Grand National fences.
ORDER-IN: 1 Arpege d’Alene, 2 Southfield Royale, 3 Vinrage Clouds, 4 Kruzhlinin, 5 Vicente, 6 Premier Bond, 7 Blakemount, 8 Sugar Baron, 9 Dancing Shadow
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, unless otherwise stated)
BET 12pts win (nap) MIDTERM (1.55 Newbury)
BET 5pts win WINTER ESCAPE and 3.4pts win SCEAU ROYAL (2.45 Ayr)
BET 10pts win DREAM CASTLE (3.05 Newbury)
BET 4pts win and place ROMAIN DE SENAM (3.20 Ayr)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 4pts win and place EL HAYEM, and BET (to win 30) 7pts win CHELSEA LAD (3.40 Newbury)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 5pts win SOUTHFIELD ROYALE, 4pts win ARPEGE D’ALENE, 2.75pts win and place VINTAGE CLOUDS, and 1.5pts win and place KRUZHLININ (3.55 Ayr)
SPECIAL BET: 8 x 1pt win doubles EL HAYEM and CHELSEA LAD (3.40 Newbury) with SOUTHFIELD ROYALE, ARPEGE D’ALENE, VINTAGE CLOUDS and KRUZHLININ (3.55 Ayr)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 5pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Midterm (1.55 Newbury), Dabyah (2.30 Newbury), Dream Castle (3.05 Newbury)
EARLY BIRDS: Dream Castle (3.05 Newbury)
ANTE-POST TON-UP BET (win 100): 5.5pts win DREAM CASTLE (Newmarket 2,000 Guineas).
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