BANKER AND BULL’S-EYE BET: Daqman steps up the stakes today on the Geordie shore, moving all in on a two-year-old and staking in the Seaton Delaval to land a bull’s-eye bet at Newcastle.
RATINGS CLASSIC DEMOTION: Today he wraps up his rating survey of the season’s three-year-olds with comparison between colts and fillies and reaches a surprising conclusion. The Guineas and Derby winners are not even first or second.
ENABLE A CLASS ABOVE THE COLTS
Which is the best three-year-old? Daqman used his personal ratings to assess Saturday’s Irish Derby yesterday but warned that he hadn’t included colts needing shorter, nor any of the fillies.
Now he reveals a rare Classic conclusion that a filly is in front of the colts this year. Here are his four top fillies set among the best colts for comparison.
118 ENABLE Daqman’s 25-1 ante-post bet for the Epsom Oaks streaked away from 1,000 Guineas runner-up Rhododendron.
116 Barney Roy Same thing happened when 2,000 scorer Churchill was overtaken by Barney Roy at Royal Ascot.
115 Wings of Eagles It doesn’t look a great Derby unless Eagles can fly away home in the Irish version at The Curragh on Saturday.
115 WINTER Without Enable, she would be the filly extraodinary, ranking alongside the Derby winner on 115, after her Guineas double and Coronation Stakes crowning.
114, Brametot, 113 Cliffs Of Moher, 113 Cracksman, 112 Churchill
112 CORONET Only fifth when Enable slammed Rhododendron five lengths in the Epsom Oaks but she suggested better to come. And that’s what happened when she won the ‘Ascot Oaks,’ the Ribblesdale Stakes.
112 Le Brivido, 111 Eminent, 111 Benbatl, 111 Waldgeist
111 RHODODENDRON Crowned queen too soon, before the John Gosden pair, Enable and Coronet, got into their stride.
HOW TO REPLENISH YOUR WALLET
2.30 Newcastle Hugo Palmer has a 35% strike rate with his juveniles on this course, including winning this race last year, and he seems to have Curiosity set up for a repeat.
3.40 Newcastle (Seaton Delaval Handicap) Briardale has shot up 16lb since scoring here in class 4 over 1m 2f but readily won a class 2 at Redcar and is versatile as to distance.
Replenish has won here two levels and 10lb lower but James Fanshawe has always prepped him for this and brings to the table a 47% stable strike rate since Newcastle turned Tapeta.
I fancy Top Notch Tonto is worth a pound (at 15.5 on BETDAQ ) to run into a place. He’d have had their scalps quite easily in his prime.
4.25 Newmarket This race has little right to be called class 2, with none of the runners here capable of winning at that level or better since Professor won in 2013; that’s four years ago.
Ballymore Castle and Supersta have not won on turf since 2014 and can hardly claim their old status (where they had any!)
To say Ice Lord is inconsistent is an understatement. He trounced Ballymore Castle at Newmarket (Rowley) in May but was behind that one two weeks later at Doncaster.
Makzeem flopped as favourite at Sandown in May and – lightly raced – may be worth another chance, though is thrown out wide from stall 1 here.
Khamaary has improved every race and, as a Johnston, may try to make all though, again, stall 3 doesn’t help.
In the end, I had a pound at 8.4 on bBETDAQ about Shady McCoy, badly drawn himself on the last day after showing up well before that. William Buick has a win and second for two rides on him. He’s hooded first time and back to within a pound of his last winning mark.
7.25 Newbury Cheekpieces first time, soft ground and a slow pace worked for Pilgrim’s Treasure at Carlisle but another three-year-old in this race appears to have a better future.
Sporting Times, a 5.3 offer on BETDAQ, is well bred as a stayer, and scored over 9f in his maiden. The extra furlong should suit today and he could climb the handicap as he goes up in trip.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, unless otherwise stated)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) CURIOSITY (2.30 Newcastle)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 5pts win REPLENISH, and 3.5pts win and place TOP NOTCH TONTO (3.40 Newcastle)
BET 2.75pts win and place SHADY McCOY and 2pt win (stakes saver) KHAMAARY (4.25 Newmarket)
BET 4.5pts win SPORTING TIMES (7.25 Newbury)
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