BULL’S-EYE BETS AT NEWBURY: With his favourite meeting abandoned, all set for a fourth 20-1 plus winner in the Ayr Cup races, Daqman is down to earth at Newbury today, taking on Pricewise in the 2.50, 3.25 and 4.00 races, plus the 3.10 Newmarket. The scores are 74-16 to Daqman, who leads by 313 points. Daqman’s bets are boosted by win-50 bull’s-eye stakes.
DON’T DESERT ENCOUNTER..
2.15 Newbury (Legacy Cup) I’m glad they’ve dropped the title ‘Arc Trial’ for this race. They had kept ‘Arc’ in their racehead since Noah’s day, waiting on Charlton Heston to drive his chariots round the track. It didn’t happen, nor has it ever had anything much to do with the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
David Simcock likes it though. He goes for a hat-trick in the race today with an older horse, Eclipse third and King George sixth Desert Encounter, whose draw in gate eight is not ideal. Horses aged three and four are 7/10 and stalls 1-7 are 9/10.
Desert Encounter, My Dream Boat and Architecture are the only runners entered for any Group 1 race this autumn, My Dream Boat the only one with any Arc pretensions.
Second Step, who holds Across The Stars, Dylan Mouth and Scarlet Dragon on summer form, has nothing to spare over Desert Encounter, as he is now worse off for the half-length which separated them at York.
The only horses to fit the stats are Architecture and Scarlet Dragon, who has never won outside handicap company. But a fresh Architecture drops down from Group-1 level for the first time since Royal Ascot last June, after being placed in both Epsom and Curragh Oaks: 12.0 offers on BETDAQ.
2.50 Newbury (Mill Reef Stakes) This race has thrown up a champion sprinter (Harry Angel) and a champion miler (Ribchester) in the past two seasons but no Classic winner since Mon Fils (1973 Guineas).
Minimum winning rating in the decade has been 102. Invincible Army and Nebo are on 109 today but both are looking a tad exposed, having been on the go since May. James Garfield (106), too.
What you want are just one or two starts in which the 102-plus rating has been established but you’ll have to settle for four-times raced Enjazaat or Staxton, who is all the way down from North Yorkshire.
And Invincible Army has already beaten Enjazaat, Grand Koonta, Staxton and Nebo in successive r aces this summer.
So nothing to catch up with the more exposed horses this time around? Maybe Grand Koonta (17.5 offers on BETDAQ ) can make up the three lengths Invincible Army beat him when he ran green on the July Course. He’s had a break since then and may have strengthened up.
STERNRUBIN A SOLID PLACE BET
3.10 Newmarket (Cesarewitch Trial) Not a winning favourite in sight but seven out of eight winners started less than 10-1. The same number came out of single-figure stalls.
That’s not about bias – the kind of bias that went against us at Newbury yesterday – but about a cavalry charge of 21 horses having to take a right-hand bend.
Time To Study seems sure to be up there. He has run only up to 1m 6f so far but connections are keen on the Cesarewitch itself, and he’s among the top half-dozen in the betting for that race.
His trainer, Mark Johnsoton, also saddles Oriental Fox, who won the stayers’ series final at Pontefract over today’s 2m 2f, but didn’t run his race in the Cesarewitch. Both Johnstcon horses have low stalls.
Two of Alan King’s, Coeur De Lion and Who Dares Wins, are also close up in the big-race market, with a third runner from the same stable, Oceane, is currently at carpet, 33-1.
Oceane was put into my horses-to-follow list, Fortune Cookies, with the Cesarewitch in mind, but is drawn 15 in this Trial, and Who Dares Wins (10.0 BETDAQ ; racing out of 9) could have the best chance of the trio today.
Great Fighter, Denman and Graceful Lady set up sequences at a lower level in the summer, and Arthur McBride was back to form on the last day, but Who Dares Wins was leading at around this trip when third in the Ascot Stakes (Oceane and Shrewd behind) after being fourth in the Chester Cup.
Graded-level hurdler Sternrubin’s form on the Flat for Philip Hobbs is 42213231, and is another one fancied for the Cesarewitch proper: 15.0 BETDAQ offers for this afternoon.
3.25 Newbury Luca Cumani has saved up Banksea for this, having won the race three times in the decade, including with one of an identical weight mark in a slightly better race, and his draw (in 5) would continue the sequence of the last four seasons (winners from 1, 2, 5 and 2).
However the nine others to score all won from the bottom half of the handicap, off 9st 2lb or lower, and there was a stalls sequence from 2007 for the next six years of 19, 15, 17 13, 8 and 16.
The ground is drying up nicely for Banksea (13.0 BETDAQ), who may have most to fear from Silver Ghost (unlucky at Sandown when rider dropped whip) and 11.5 offer Fidaawy, a winner over further who will enjoy a strong pace. If there isn’t one, he’ll set it himself, as he did when scoring at Doncaster in the Spring.
PRICELESS RETURN TO TOP FORM
4.00 Newbury Eight out of 10 winners of this are young horses (no older than five) who have ready been seen at Listed or Group level during the summer, and are drawn in the low eight.
But has a decade of stalls stats gone out of the window? They were a key indicator for low-drawn horses in the straight sprints as well as on the turn up to 1m 2f yesterday
But the results by stall in the first two races, both 6f, were 14-13-11 from 14 runners and 14-9-12 in a field of 13. So can we expect high numbers in this sprint? We’d better have one each side,.
The delicate Cotai Glory (7.0 on BETDAQ) is hard to win with but is a Newbury CD scorer and, on the other side, Priceless could bounce back to Spring form (12.0 offers)
4.45 Catterick (Twelve-Furlong Series Final) John Quinn, who has trained the winner twice (2009 and 2014), has just recently brought Wotabreeze back to form here at Catterick over CD off a slipping handicap mark. A sporting nap at 7.2 on a difficult day
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30, unless otherwise stated)
2.15 NEWBURY
BET 7.25pt win DESERT ENCOUNTER
BET 2.75pts win and place ARCHITECTURE
2.50 NEWBURY
BET 10pts win INVINCIBLE ARMY
BET 1.75pts win and place GRAND KOONTA
3.10 NEWMARKET: Bull’s-eye bets to win 50
BET 3pts win WHO DARES WINS
BET 3.5pts win and place STERNRUBIN
BET (to win 20) 1pt win and place OCEANE
3.25 NEWBURY: Bull’s-eye bets to win 50
BET 5pts win FIDAAWY
BET 4pts win BANKSEA
4.00 NEWBURY
BET 5pts win COTAI GLORY
BET 2.75pts win PRICELESS
4.45 CATTERICK
BET 5pts win (nap) WOTABREEZE
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