VALUE QUESTIONS ANSWERED BY DAQMAN: Who, what, why, when, where.. Daqman tries to find the answers: Why you should get early positions on BETDAQ. Who is the baby chaser who started jumping in public aged three? What makes one horse stand out at Worcester? Where is the supernap? When does it run and why will it win?
BE PRICE WISE WITH BETDAQ..
Where are the 2018 Guineas and Derby winners? The Press answer, in the light of Aidan O’Brien’s assault on a world record Group-1 haul, is that they are likely to be in Saturday’s Racing Post Trophy.
They could be right. But now is the time for all good punters to check out the seeming lesser results in two-year-old races this autumn.
For instance, Saturday’s card opens with a Listed for juveniles, won in 2013 by the subsequent Newmarket 2,000 winner, Night Of Thunder, and there are no fewer than SIX two-year-old tests on the Newmarket card today.
Don’t be too concerned about the soft going. In fact, if your youngster can quicken out of it, he is revealing something in his engine that will be useful whatever level he reaches, and it’s too early to say that he wants ONLY give in the ground.
I shall be concentrating on value punts in the handicaps but will assess the two-year-olds at the end of the season.
My Daqman column leads Pricewise 83-21 and is 319 points clear in the challenge to the Racing Post man. For clarity, we mean that 83 of my bets for races selected by Pricewise returned a profit at SP.
And that – staking to a single unit at SP for each bet – there is a gap between my profit and Pricewise’s loss of 319 points.
We do NOT calculate Daqman’s returns at the value prices taken on BETDAQ or those of fixed-odds layers which were seemingly available to Pricewise.
That is because of unspecified bookmaker equity and price changes. This becomes even more of an issue now that some major bookmakers have reduced their guarantees to lay morning prices.
What odds are printed in the Racing Post may exist only for a short time to a limited amount. In the case of BETDAQ, both the offers and the equity are always visible for transparency and ease of exchange.
And, if you check out the orange for the weekend meetings, you will invariably find that the overround is between punter-friendly 105 and 108%
You make the market and you can see it from the beginning to the end of the race. We even have our own starting price (XSP).
For the sake of clarity, and comparison year on year, the last Flat races of the season for the purposes of this challenge are on Saturday, November 11 at Doncaster.
My 62-win lead is his highest in eight of the nine consecutive seasons of defeating Pricewise. The record season was in 2015 (Flat) which Daqman won 105-23.
BABY CHASER CAN GET MOVING
2.10 Worcester This is the Fred and Mercy Rimell memorial. Fred’s training camp at Kinnersely, Worcs, turned out four Grand National winners, two Gold Cup and two Champion Hurdle.
Fred gave his jumpers plenty of time, though the trend away from store horses and towards jumping them early had begun with success for Fulke Walwyn in the 1952 Cheltenham Gold Cup with the six-year-old Mont Tremblant. Quite controversial at the time.
Like Michael Dickinson and now Paul Nicholls, Walwyn was capable of maturing his jumpers early.
Two six-year-olds in today’s race are Take A Break and Baraza, who has been given plenty of experience over fences already by Tom George though, unfortunately, the trainer has a poor strike rate on today’s course, which takes the gilt off this one as a bet. But Take A Break’s fencing form is PPF.
Exmoor Mist has done well first run back, and Keel Haul has dropped down the handicap. But the youngster of them all is the five-year-old Keep Moving, who was jumping fences as a baby at the age of THREE in the famous French arena for young jumpers at Pau.
Trainer Philip Hobbs has a remarkable record at Worcester and has been in cracking form. I would not be in the least surprised to see this one move forward now after a break, a pound short of a stone lower than a year ago. BETDAQ offers of 6.8 early mouse.
10.5? THE JOKE IS ON THE LAYERS
2.20 and 2.55 Newmarket Winners in the 2.20 have come from the extremes of the draw every time (11/11, 16/13, 2/13, 2/11), so it could be a case of checking which side you think the pace will be and/or where the quality resides.
The same could apply to this new novice stakes (2.55), in which Burlington, Dubai Frame and Elwazir are Group-1 entered.
The third horse when Elwazir was runner-up on the debut had been second in a Group 2 and this son of Frankel has a fine chance here under Jim Crowley from stall 15.
2.25 Navan There are 10,000 euros to the winner of this maiden. No wonder the top yards are trying to sweep it up. Ger Lyons has been among its winners so far, and he could upset the Ballydoyle favourite here.
Lyons is running second to O’Brien in the Navan trainers’ table but is miles in front – in fact, ahead of every other yard – with his level-stakes profit.
His Dandy Man gelding, It’s All A Joke, led at this trip on the last day at Naas, proving his speed on soft ground. You’re laughing with 10.5 win and place on BETDAQ, and you can always do Cheering as a saver.
2.45 Worcester Nigel Twiston-Davies is in reliable form, with figures in the last week of 3212121 over hurdles and fences, and Scotchtown (5.0 BETDAQ) could pick this one up.
Pickamix is a Market Rasen specialist, Rolling Dylan needs soft ground and Solomn Grundy’s stable is badly out of form.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 3.5pts win and place KEEP MOVING (2.10 Worcester)
BET 2pts win and place IT’S ALL A JOKE and 4pts win (stakes saver) CHEERING (2.25 Navan)
BET 5pts win SCOTCHTOWN (2.45 Worcester)
SUPERNAP: BET 20pts win ELWAZIR (2.55 Newmarket)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double SCOTCHTOWN (2.45 Worcester) and ELWAZIR (2.55 Newmarket)
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