NOW IT’S 14 WINNING BETS IN A WEEK: Daqman landed back-to-back naps when he added Kings Shield (WON 8-11) yesterday to Tuesday scorer, Boyhood (WON 11-8), but Kings Shield contracted from the morning BETDAQ offers so his SP profit from 14 winning bets in seven days slipped back to around the 100-points mark.
ANTE-POST PUNTERS GET THE WIND UP: Punters are suffering from ante-post nerves after negatives for top festival contenders Altior (wind problem) and Yanworth (faller). Is there any solace in the festival trends online? It’s part two of Daqman’s assessment of this weekend’s trials at Cheltenham and where the championship winners come from.
‘SEE HOW THEY WON’ CHAMPION STATS
It’s never as easy as it looks. After Yanworth’s fall at Exeter comes the news that Altior’s wind is not quite right, and requires a minor op.
It’s early days to tweak them for Cheltenham but ante-post punters will be looking to the three-day November meeting starting there tomorrow for alternatives.
My readers met in the usual phone box down Six-Mile Bottom, shocked by my revelation yesterday that novice winners at Cheltenham this weekend are not to be backed for the festival.
They made this plea: where DO we look for winners, then? Particularly for the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and Gold Cup which are already listed in the BETDAQ ante-post orange? Ok, let’s see how they won..
CHAMPION HURDLE: I see some trends on line which seem skew-whiff.. ‘Key trial winners include Yanworth from the Christmas Hurdle’ but the same article declares that just one of the last 21 Christmas Hurdle winners has gone on to win the Champion Hurdle in the same season.
That suggests we are in the same boat as we were for the novices I talked about on Tuesday and Wednesday, with trial winners paddling slowly toward the festival and not making a splash until a year or two’s time.
Some 18 of the last 25 champion hurdlers winners had won at Cheltenham. So the question is ‘won what and when’ at that venue?
Buveir d’Air Last year’s Champion Hurdle winner. Had not been seen at Cheltenham before.
Annie Power Won a hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day 2014 (new course) and the championship in 2015 (old course).
Faugheen Won the Neptune (2m 5f) the previous year March.
Jezki Third of 12 Supreme Novices Hurdle 2013 and won the Champion Hurdle in 2014.
Hurricane Fly Won the 2011 Champion Hurdle without a run on the course but, of course, had the 2011 success behind him when subsequently winner (2013), third (twice) and fourth.
Rock On Ruby Heh! The 2012 champion had won a BUMPER at this weekend’s November meeting! Get on!
VERDICT: Beware of stats and ‘facts’ that are not what they seem. I’ll check out the Champion Chase and Gold Cup for you next week when I continue to See How They Won.
PHIL LOOKS SET TO STRIKE OIL
2.20 Clonmel (Oil Chase) If you want a race that’s a guide to the future here’s one doing fairly well, thankyou.
Recent winners include Sizing Europe, Champagne Fever and Road To Riches, and a nice little collection of youngsters in today’s renewal could produce a Cheltenham winner.
That’s if you leave out the 12-year-old Realt Mor and the Thyestes winner, Champagne West, who may need the run back with his stable mainly missing strike (form figures 303323000231).
Of the two Gordon Elliott seven-year-olds, we know Tiger Roll as 4m NH Chase winner but he has won chases at 2m 1f and 2m 4f.
A Toi Phil is rematched with Balko Des Flos whom he beat in the Champion Chase at Gowran Park in September but he was the fitter horse that day and had been only fourth to the same horse in the Galway Plate.
The handicapper can’t split them now – 158 for each – but this is the same Henry De Bromhead stable as Champagne West and Gordon Elliott is in much better form: 113142012130110.
The BETDAQ market says that, of his pair, I should rely on A Toi Phil (3.2) and that Tiger Roll has only an outside chance at 14.0 but better to be safe than sorry the second string won!
2.50 Clonmel Talking of wind ops, Dinaria des Obeaux has emerged victorious after one and Elliott thinks that she could go places this season.
Takes advantage of all the allowances here in a race won by Vroum Vroum Mag on the way up.
3.40 Taunton Again we’re looking for an improving youngster against three 11-year-olds and, like Dinaria Des Obeaux, Monsieur Co has the four-year-olds allowance and has also had a wind op.
‘All he wants is time,’ says trainer Paul Nicholls, but – on all French winning form – he also wants soft ground.
Princeton Royale is likely to set a strongish pace which could take the sap out of Resolution Bay (sap the bay’s resolution?). He is looking like a bridesmaid with 232 his last three runs.
Princeton Royale may need the run so I’m going to bet that the rejuvenated Sporting Boy can defy the handicapper’s hike after skipping round Market Rasen and lasting out for a long way at Cheltenham: 9.2 on BETDAQ
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 9pts win A TOI PHIL, and 1.5pts win and place TIGER ROLL (2.20 Clonmel)
SUPERNAP: 20pts win DINARIA DES OBEAUX (2.50 Clonmel)
BET 2.4pts win and place SPORTING BOY (3.40 Taunton)
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