9-2 WINNER ON THE SIDE FOR DAQMAN: Two returns for Daqman on the opening day at Cheltenham yesterday takes him to 17 in the last nine days, with a profit on seven of them. He takes on Pricewise (no score so far) in the 1.50, 2.25 and 3.30 Cheltenham today plus the 3.15 at Lingfield. His two to pay yesterday were:
WON 9-2 ON THE BLIND SIDE (29 points profit at SP)
3RD 20-1 CHAMPAGNE CITY (win and place)
STICK WITH GUMBALL IN THE TRIAL
12.40 Cheltenham (Triumph Hurdle Trial) Winners of this in the decade finished 2420F1 in the Triumph Hurdle itself, culminating in Defi Du Seuil doing the double last year for Philip Hobbs, who now saddles Gumball.
Gumball, paying seven for 10 on BETDAQ this morning, has been unchallenged to win two low-class hurdles by a total of 39 lengths (Speedo Boy well behind in one of them) and ‘could be anything,’ as they say.
That also applies to French winner Apple’s Shakira, who is Apple’s Jade’s sister and gets a 7lb sex allowance in this race, but you would want to see her run.
Nicky Henderson made William henry dive straight in at the deep end yesterday and came unstuck. Otherwise he is acey-deucy in the last two days with form figures of 1221 still standing.
APPROACHING THISTLECRACK FORM?
1.15 Cheltenham Thistlecrack had a stroll round in last year but it’s a different game of soldiers this time as three of the top novice-chase camps line up for battle.
West Approach, a half-brother to Thistlecrack (Colin Tizzard, 157 rated over hurdles) and Ballyoptic (Nigel Twiston-Davies 155) were both exciting on their steeplechase debuts.
Black Corton (Paul Nicholls) has had eight chases – five wins including one at Cheltenham and two seconds – and has not been out of the first four in all his 18 appearances for 10 wins under Rules.
The handicapper says he has already improved his hurdles rating to 150 now over fences, so it looks very close, though I think West Approach (2.45 this morning) has the best credentials overall on breeding and ratings.
BIG ROCCO CAN DEFY TOP WEIGHT
1.50 Cheltenham A tough race for favourites, and therefore for punters, in the decade, with just the one obliging in 2009, and winners since including 12-1, 20-1 and 25-1.
That doesn’t stop four horses being backed within 0.5 points of each other – with parameters of 5.9 to 6.4 – at the front of the BETDAQ market this morning.
Out of the handicap, Premier Bond stayed on well in the Kim Muir here in March, and Doing Fine, who won on the new course in April, seemed on the way back, third on the old course on the last day.
But trainer Neil Mulholland is badly out of form and his last eight runners have included SPs of 40-1, 50-1, 66-1 (three) and 100-1.
Minella Rocco had a good run back at Punchestown and won the 2016 NH Chase here over 4m, now 23lb higher after his Gold Cup second in March.
He was third in this race last year off 155 but this massive beast has just 3lb more in the saddle today off 166, which tells you about the quality of the race.
That still has Vicente a stone better off on NH Chase orm. He won the novice chase at this meeting two years ago, but you have to guess – as Paul Nicholls seems to be doing – as to ether he has enough edge on him.
There’s the same question mark over the prolific Three Faces West, who hasn’t been seen for nearly a year now and has never faced fences of this order. I bet 6.0 Rocco on BETDAQ.
STAR TOPS 1-2-3 FOR IN-FORM PIPE
2.25 Cheltenham (November Gold Cup) Same again: just the one winning favourite in the decade, and SPs since include 10-1, 12-1 and 20-1. All three of those prices came for winners off 11st or lower.
Like Minella Rocco at Punchestown, Le Prezien set himself up for a big prize when beaten only a neck at Cheltenham here three weeks back.
That gives him an advantage over the morning favourite, Kylemore Lough who hasn’t been seen since April and – like Tully East – has only ever won a chase in novice or graduation company.
But the neck winner here at Cheltenham that day was game-as-they-come Foxtail Hill, who takes him on again over an extended trip which winning form says he will prefer.
Theinval has finished in front of both Le Prezien and Foxtail Hill over shorter and his winning form is around today’s trip. His 25.0 BETDAQ offers looked too big.
Viconte Du Noyer won over further on this card a year ago and, like Minella Rocco, had a run back at Punchestown recently.
David Pipe landed a stable double yesterday and Starchitect was unlucky (hampered twice) not to be placed in the Plate here on the new course in March. Pipe won this in 2011.
At around 10-1 each, Foxtail Hill (11.5 on BETDAQ as I write) and Starchitect (11.0 in the orange) have the right weight for this.
ROCKY CONINUES ON THE UPGRADE
3.00 Cheltenham Yet again, just the one outright favourite. Weight very difficult to carry if, in this race, not impossible, with no winners off 11st higher.
Dell’Arca has been hit 10lb for his Newbury win nine days ago and has already been beaten by Thomas Campbell, for whom Nicky Henderson calls in 7lb claimer James Bowen. That should help.
Anteros won the race last year by seven lengths and is only 3lb higher while Kk Lexion posted a good return here on the last day.
But I fancy some of the 9.0 Rocky’s Treasure (double on Daq Multiples with Rocco?), who has run only four times under Rules and keeps on getting better for a stable in form.
3.30 Cheltenham Horses aged five and six only have won this in the last nine seasons. It’s a pinstickers’ race and mine falls on Stamp Your Feet who has as good a chance as any at 9.6 on BETDAQ.
CHURCHILL’S BATTALION ON FIRE
2.45 Lingfield (Churchill Stakes) Battalion has been backed all week, even before the ‘decs’ were known, from 14-1 down to 9-2 last night., suggesting an old-fashioned coup of a kind. Some correction, as Battalion eased to 8.2 on BETDAQ this morning.
We haven’t seen much of Jamie Osborne in that regard for some time now, but he has been in good form recently (four winners out of five Nov 7-9).
DAQMAN’S BETS (20 points win unless otherwise stated)
12.40 Cheltenham
SUPERNAP: 20pts win GUMBALL
1.15 Cheltenham
BET 13pts win WEST APPROACH
1.50 Cheltenham (staked to win 50pts)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 10pts win MINELLA ROCCO
2.25 Cheltenham (staked to win 50 points)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 5pts win STARCHITECT
BULL’S-EYE BET: 4.75pts win FOXTAIL HILL
BULL’S-EYE BET: 2pts win and place THEINVAL
2.45 Lingfield
BET 2.75pts win BATTALION
3.00 Cheltenham
BET 2.5pts win and place ROCKY’S TREASURE
3.15 Lingfield (14.5 on BETDAQ)
BET 1.5pts win and place OUT DO
3.30 Cheltenham
BET 2.25pts win and place STAMP YOUR FEET (3.30 Cheltenham)
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