NAPS FOUR-TIMER AMONG SEVEN OUT OF NINE: Daqman opposed three odds-on favourites on Tuesday. All lost and he picked the winner of every race against them. Yesterday he got it right again when he named the right odds-on favourite for a supernap. It was his fourth winning nap in a row for a third hat-trick in nine days. The results sequence of seven out of nine listed here shows the latest victory first:
WON 1-2 QAYSAR (yesterday’s supernap)
WON 7-4 KAYFLEUR (Tuesday nap)
WON 2-1 CIAOADIOSIMDONE (Monday nap)
WON 4-5 FOX NORTON (Sunday supernap)
2ND 5-4 GUMBALL (Saturday nap)
Pulled up WILLIAM HENRY (Friday nap)
WON 4-6 DINARIA DES OBEAUX (Thursday supernap)
WON 8-11 KINGS SHIELD (Wednesday nap)
WON 11-8 BOYHOOD (Tuesday nap)
THREE BIG-ODDS WIN AND PLACE PUNTS: There’s a supernap at Thurles today, but with big-odds win-and-place bets in England at 16.5, 13.0 and 8.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
TOO FEW ARE CHASING THE BIG MONEY
Is this what punters really want? You only have to look at the 10-year SPs and the scoreline for Saturday’s Haydock feature – Kauto Star 3 wins, Cue Card 3, Silviniaco Conti 2 – to know how uncompetitive it is.
Five of these eight Lancashire Chase wins in the decade – six out of 10 all told – had SPs of 7-4 or less, three of them odds on.
To the fore yet again on Saturday will be Cue Card, with Gold Cup winner Sizing John swerving the heavy ground, and there will be only about five runners.
But racing’s authorities perpetuate the myth of the event by offering £1m bonus with this race as the launch pad of a treble completed by King George and Gold Cup.
In fact, Cue Card will be running for the fifth time. In four consecutive years his form figures for the race are 1411, so – one way or another – he will cap Silviniaco Conti’s 1312 and Kauto Star’s 1U1-1 before that.
On the bright side, we can probably land a supernap on either the first or second favourite (they’ve won seven out of 10).
But what really shines bright for the big-time owners and trainers is the silver and gold that has gone to just two stables only a few yards apart down the A303.
Either Paul Nicholls or Colin Tizzard has won the race in eight years out of the last 10. Why don’t they just move it to Wincanton to save them the petrol money?
When you get a small yard winning a Gold Cup (Lord Windermere, Coneygree) there is a patronising ‘well done chaps’ about it. Or they are seen as the last of the great Corinthians.
But, if the big prizemoney was better placed and races like Saturday’s opened up, there would be more of them within a wider, fairer structure to the sport.
16.5 BETDAQ BET COULD BOUNCE BACK
12.50 Wincanton Paul Nicholls, who landed a treble on this card last year, bids for a hat-trick after scoring in this race with two horses rated 130.
Volpone Jelois has to step up on a 118 mark, and the book says he is more than a stone inferior to Buckhorn Timothy.
Volpone hasn’t won in seven starts since his successful debut at Taunton just before Christmas last year, but he’s never been out of the first four in eight races
Buckhorn Timothy is down in trip for the first time in 22 months and won over 3m 2f on the last day at Fontwell, when he was dropped in class.
Today’s distance suited Springtown Lake when he won his maiden at Worcester a month ago but this is a big step up in class and, in a very short career, he has not been seen on ground worse than good.
So one to be on at a price may be Dubawi Island (16.5 on BETDAQ), who has won twice after long breaks, handles the ground and restarts his career off his last winning mark.
Trainer Venetia Williams has just struck form with returns of 1001011, still standing in the last 10days.
TAKE A SLICE OF CAKE AT BETDAQ 13.0
1.10 Market Rasen This race is a bit classy and – you’d hope – has enough younger talent to smother the nine-year-olds (Applesandpierres and Mister Fuzz) on goodish ground.
I thought River Frost would be jumping fences but he stays over hurdles, despite his big rise in the handicap. He had a decent run back and is down in grade, which is why he was favourite this morning.
Another destined for chasing, a lovely big horse, is Cake De L’Isle, who might well have won at Cheltenham last month but for stumbling.
He was nimble enough despite his size to break his maiden round this tight Market Rasen CD and 13.0 on BETDAQ this morning looks generous.
MULLINS AGAIN? THAT’S LIFE..
2.05 Thurles One of my horses to follow, Asthuria (12.30) goes today but is a very short price first time over fences.
But the grey Willie Mullins mare Ainsi Va La Vie (such is life!) looks a supernap at 1.78 on BETDAQ this morning, 3-3 in bumpers and now stepped up to a trip she needs over hurdles, if her pedigree is any guide.
2.35 Wincanton This is where I fancy Nicholls. Captain Cattistock was behind Canelot when they met at Chepstow on the last day of October but that was two furlongs shorter on good ground.
A BETDAQ 8.0 bet this morning, Captain Cattistock, whose future is over fences, was staying on well that day, will enjoy the soft terrain today and is tongue-tied.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes to win 20 points)
BET 1.25pts win and place DUBAWI ISLAND (12.50 Wincanton)
BET 1.65pts win and place CAKE DE L’ISLE (1.10 Market Rasen)
SUPERNAP at SP: BET 20pts win AINSIE VA LA VIE (2.05 Thurles)
BET 2.85pts win and place CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK (2.35 Wincanton)
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