SUPERNAP ON BETDAQ DAY AT PUNCHESTOWN: It’s a big BETDAQ-sponsored day at Punchestown, with Daqman checking out stats, facts and form on six races. He finds a supernap in the hope of extending his current sequence of best bets: 1111121112.
BLUE’S NEAREST RIVAL OFF COLOUR?
12.20 Punchestown (BETDAQ Trading Tools Maiden Hurdle) In a sea of 29 straight losers, only Athenean has kept the Noel Meade enterprise afloat in the last fortnight.
It’s a plus that his success came here at Punchestown, albeit in a bumper. It’s a plus that he’s by Westerner out of a Supreme Leader mare.
But it’s a minus that he was ridden out to beat just two others 11 days ago, and it’s a minus that this close relative of decent stayers should be kept to the 2m minimum to launch his hurdles career today.
His bumper form hardly matches that of Paloma Blue, who ran second to the ill-fated Fayonagh, also here at Punchestown.
Paloma Blue has already been seen over hurdles and already stepped up in trip. While we don’t fear Athenian, we are glad that others do.. to make a price for Paloma Blue! I could get at least the 7-10 minimum for a supernap.
1.20 Punchestown (Sign Up To BETDAQ Today Mares Handicap Hurdle) The step up in trip should suit Good To Flow, who is related to a Kerry National winner. Davy Russell takes over: 4.0 on BETDAQ early mouse.
A first-time hood is not enough to inspire my interest in the ‘bridesmaid’ Gracemount (form figures 32233), while Alaliya has so far been unable to get on terms at the finish of any trip below 3m.
1.50 Punchestown (Download The BETDAQ App Beginners Chase) We finally meet up with Willie Mullins, and we expect nothing less than another novice for the big time.
If we get one here, Willie – and/or the first-time fences – will have wrought a character change in Bon Papa, who carried his head high and pulled up in the Neptune at the Cheltenham Festival in March, and then downed tools in the Punchestown equivalent, trailing in 80-lengths last.
Stand Up And Fight, by Flemensfirth out of an Old Vic mare, should eat up the fences but, with that breeding, and as a 2m 4f hurdler, seems here over 2m for a sharp lesson in jumping at speed, as opposed to targeting the prize.
Maybe the ifs and buts about the market leaders will let in Next Bend (loves heavy ground) or Avenir D’Une Vie (7.8 offers), who might have won over fences at this trip when trying 2m 3f at Navan, albeit the race was run in very slow time.
ONE TO GET YOU OUT OF THE WOODS
2.25 Punchestown (BETDAQ Rated Novice Chase) Anything goes, says the eponymous Tout Est Permis, but it was far from the case at Down Royal, and Mouse Morris returns his grey to the track where he was runner-up in October.
Bravissimo ran in snatches and made a bad mistake at the last at Wexford, so another Willie Mullins novice who needs jumping practice.
It all suggests that Woods Well is the most reliable conveyance here, though this is another form indicator taken from a slow time in the mud.
2.55 Punchestown (BETDAQtips.com Handicap Chase) Come on, Shamrock! You and I have to try to nail the winner of a race named after the website.
It’s a real, old fashioned handicap you only find in Ireland these days; weights range of 29lb, and horses aged from five to 11.
Whatever the fate of Bon Papa, Barry Geraghty can get consolation here (or a double up!) via Fitzhenry, who shaped for all the world at Navan on the last day as if a future winner over something like today’s trip.
3.30 Punchestown (BETDAQ.com INH Flat Race) A select few in this, and I don’t mean the horses (we don’t know much about them yet), I mean the jockeys.
Nina Carberry, Patrick Mullins and Derek O’Connor make the race worth staying on for, and the low BETDAQ overround demands a bet. I’ll have my euro on the well-supported Caltex, daringly described as ‘black’ on the racecard. A black cat, I hope.
IT’S MAPPED OUT FOR CARTOGRAPHER
6.10 Kempton A class-2 sprint with a triple bias: low stalls (delete the double-figure draw), young horses (no winner older than five) and 100% record for quality from the top of the handicap (all winners carried 9st 1lb or more).
Cartographer (11.5 on BETDAQ this morning) fits two of the stats and, as a front-runner here, with Josephine Gordon riding in great form, might get away from the 7f-1m horses, like Straight Right and Outback Traveller, and run the legs off old-timers high in the handicap (Intissab, Out Do), leaving behind the hold-up horses (Mazzini, Reckless Endeavour). That’s the hopeful view.
6.40 Kempton The draw seems equally vital here, despite the step up to 1m 4f. Seven out of 10 winners came out of stalls 1-4.
Not So Sleepy and Master The World have never put back-to-back wins together, while Western Hymn has finished behind both Mountain Bell and the bridesmaid Red Verdon.
Stables in form are vital for betting at this time of year and that means both Roger Varian (Great Court), with four winners among eight placed from his last 10 starters, and William Haggas (Daphne), with three out of four including a double here at Kempton last week. Daphne (5.8 on BETDAQ) may continue her improvement.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points but supernap is a fixed stake)
12.20 Punchestown
SUPERNAP 20pts win PALOMA BLUE
1.20 Punchestown
BET 6.5pts win GOOD TO FLOW
1.50 Punchestown
BET 3pts win AVENIR D’UNE VIE
2.25 Punchestown
BET 12pts win WOODS WELL
2.55 Punchestown
BET 7pts win FITZHENRY
3.30 Punchestown
BET 7pts win CALTEX
6.10 Kempton
BET 2pts win and place CARTOGRAPHER
6.40 Kempton
BET 4pts win DAPHNE
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