DAQMAN ATTEMPTS GRAND 435-POINT RETURN: Daqman today tries to complete his double of December 27 when he would have attempted a 300-point return with a single-point from Anibale Fly (WON 14-1) going on to his main bet in the Coral Welsh Grand National which was postponed until today. In fact, his Chepstow choice was 29.0 this morning, giving him a 434-1 punt for the 15-point carryover bet.
29.0 FOR BUCK IN TIZZARD PLOT
2.05 Chepstow (Coral Welsh Grand National) Rising stayers are the order of the day so, despite the ground, you’re not looking for an old slogger with a long list of previous marathon performances.
Famous last words, but the facts of the stats are these. Only one horse of a double-figure age has won since 1993. In fact, only one over the age of eight since 2003.
Until last year, just one winner had carried more than 11st 3lb since 1994. Every one as far back as memory serves had a 3m chase win on his CV.
ALL had finished in the first six on the last day, ALL had raced within the last two months but NOT within the last two weeks. Five horses are close to ticking all the boxes.
Ask The Weatherman Prolific winner of Points and hunter-chases up to 3m 4f and on soft and heavy. Used to much bigger weights and won an open handicap over regulation fences in November. Ground was too fast for him in the Foxhunter at Cheltenham.
Buckhorn Timothy Things haven’t gone Colin Tizzard’s way this season so far but he’s been quietly bringing along young pretenders like Buckhorn Timothy, who has won on all sorts of ground and likes Chepstow.
His chase mark has been protected for more than 13 months now by running him only over hurdles (two from two).
Final Nudge Known to lack confidence so big-field second in the Badger Ales at Wincanton in November was potentially a huge step forward, having fallen when second two out in the Midlands Grand National last Spring. Mudlover who is the choice of Aidan Coleman.
Vintage Clouds Nine chases have produced just the one win. Four lengths down when fell two out at the Cheltenham festival. Third in the Haydock Grand National trial, seventh in the Scottish National.
Wild West Wind Won the Coral Welsh Grand National Trial on today’s course on heavy from Alfie Spinner and Milansbar, and is reunited with Adrian Heskin, who is responsible for teaching him the game last Spring with back-to-back novice-chase success, starting out off a 20lb lower mark.
Still unexposed after only nine starts over regulation hurdles and fences, and would have been my number-one but for his penalty.
VERDICT: I promised to double up my returns from Anibale Fly (WON 14-1 from 19.5 on BETDAQ) at Leopardstown on December 27 when this Chepstow marathon was postponed.
I’m moving all in on Buckhorn Timothy, with a 434-point dream profit the potential outcome in a change of luck for Team Tizzard.
Mysteree beat his Midlands National winner conqueror, Chase The Spud, when they met at today’s weights first run back on heavy last season.
Nicky Henderson has never won this and he is asking a lot of Beware The Bear off 11st 10lb, penalised for this like Wild West Wind. Vicente (sixth a year ago) has won two Scottish Nationals but this is not Ayr and 11st 12lb is a steadier.
Sue Smith is a reliable trainer of stamina horses and, though Vintage Clouds has been around the marathons already, he is still only eight, right age, right weight.
Ask The Wetherman may just be short on class and, like soft-ground lover Pobbles Bay, Final Nudge seems narrowly weighted out of it, though just now finding his feet for the big occasion.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Buckhorn Timothy 1, Vintage Clouds, 3 Mysteree
KALASHNIKOV FOR TOLWORTH CLASH
2.25 Sandown (Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle) The last two winners of this took three championship races at Cheltenham and Aintree the following Spring.
What strapping future chasers Kalashnikov, related to a Gold Cup winner, and Le Prezien’s brother, Mont Des Avaloirs, do now is a bonus.
Western Ryder burst some bubbles at Cheltenham, has won on heavy ground and he and Kalashnikov are the ones with the big festival entries. I’ll take a chance with Kalashnikov, whose Wetherby form has worked out well.
3.00 Sandown (Veteran’s Chase Final) Pete The Feat, Theatrical Star, Loose Chips, Gas Line Boy and Cloudy Too were 1-2-3-4-5 in this last year, with Cloudy Too dropped 11lb.
Pete The Feat and Loose Chips were well behind Houblon des Obeaux and Third Intention in a prep for this over CD, with Houblon the one to be on in today’s conditions.
Double Ross, third in the Hennessy (2016) as was, and Benbens, third in the Scottish National, are a formidable pair for Nigel Twiston-Davies.
With four winners out of eight still standing since New Year’s Eve, Twiston continues in fabulous form.
Perfect Candidate was a game winner at Cheltenham in November but always finds it hard to put two races together, even given the long break since.
Buywise is a better horse at Cheltenham but has plummeted in the weights.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Houblon dezs Obeaux 1, Double Ross 2, Buywise
5.3 ‘LORD’ LOOKS SPECIAL VALUE
3.35 Sandown Nicky Henderson who won this last year asks a lot of top-weight Call Me Lord, a Sandown CD winner in the Spring and on heavy in France. But he could be better class than these and 5.3 offers is special value.
Our Merlin’s hat-trick has been completed in low-grade handicaps but, like Drops Of Jupiter, is a likely improver.
Kerry Lee has had three winenrs from her last seven starters and Gassin Golf has slid down the handicap: 10.0
3.45 Wincanton This could be a match between Lagavara and previous Wincanton winner Daytime Ahead, the horse he pipped by a nose at Leicester.
Mon Palois has done most of his racing on a sound surface. while Monbeg Theatre is exposed an doesn’t keep his form, though maybe first-time cheekpieces will help.
Edvardo won in Ireland on heavy at this trip before moving to Devon but gets no help from the handicapper. Waterloo Warrior (0-11) is still a maiden.
While Tom Scudamore is on record as saying tchat Taj Badalandabad ‘doesnt ride like an out-and-out stayer’, High Nugent states that all Head To The Stars does is stay and needs this deep ground.
A Kayf Tara oiut of a Celtic Copne mare, ‘Stars’ has a future over fences but I fancy Lagavara to carry my pound today at a value offer of 9.4.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.05 Chepstow (Coral Welsh Grand National)
SPECIAL BET: 15pts win and 3pts place BUCKHORN TIMOTHY, plus (to win 30) BET 2.5pts win and place VINTAGE CLOUDS and 4.5pts win MYSTEREE
2.25 Sandown (win 20)
BET 10pts win KALASHNIKOV
3.00 Sandown (win 30)
BET 3pts win DOUBLE ROSS, 2.75pts win and place HOUBLON DES OBEAUX and 1.75pts win and place BUYWISE
3.35 Sandown (win 30)
BET 7.5pts win (nap) CALL ME LORD
BET 3pts win and place GASSIN GOLF
3.45 Wincanton (win 30)
BET 3.75pts win and place LAGAVARA
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