DAQMAN’S 8-1 WINNER WAS ‘ROK SOLID’: Three big-race winners for Daqman yesterday among four winning bets on the Saturday start to the Flat season: he headlined as ‘Rok solid’ his big hit in the NH Mares’ Final, and added the Doncaster Mile and the Lincoln Handicap, including his nap:
WON 8-1 ROKSANA (NH Mares’ Final)
WON 5-1 ADDEYBB (Lincoln Handicap winner in three)
WON 10-11 ZABEEL PRINCE (nap, Doncaster Mile)
WON 11-8 BALLYMOY
WHY HE IS AHEAD ON VALUE TWICE OVER: It was another winning day for BETDAQ value, with 10.5, 7.4 and 2.62 taken in the Daqman column about the three big winners. And it was another winning day for value over Pricewise of the Racing Post: Daqman went straight into a 2-0 lead, sneaking a one-point profit to a four-point Pricewise loss. They clash again today in the Irish Lincolnshire.
FORM ALL ADDS UP TO MALAYA
2.35 Ascot Two years ago, Paul Nicholls won this with one carrying the maximum 11st 12lb, and has every chance of doing it again via Malaya.
Malaya swerved Cheltenham after being beaten by Redicean at Kempton but, though he’d won only four days earlier, Eragon De Chanay went to the festival and was seventh in the Fred Winter, with Turning Gold fifth.
Eragon was behind City Dreamer when fourth in a Grade 2 juvenile at Doncaster in December.
City Dreamer had been easily swallowed up in his previous race, which was at Wetherby. The unchallenged winner was none other than Malaya.
So it is that we’ve done a full circle of collateral form and ended up where we started, with the favourite at 3.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
3.45 Ascot Paul Nicholls again fields the 11st 12lb top weight, this time in a handicap, with the ground also a worry for Diego Du Charmil.
Maestro Royal goes for his hat-trick over fences but his wins were in easy races. Vocaliser likes the ground and is the improver, who must now go up in grade.
Beau Bay has been placed in 11 consecutive races and won’t go down without a fight. Tries hard and jumps well, value win and place at 6.8 on BETDAQ
4.20 Ascot Last year’s all-the-way scorer on good ground, Loose Chips, won on soft-heavy in his youth and, though 12 now, was a good third at Sandown in an all-aged handicap last month.
Houblon des Obeaux (blinkered first time) and Theatre Guide (no success since a wind op) are from stables only recently come good after a long, lean spell, so could bounce back.
Sego Success is weighted to turn around Doncaster form with Band Of Blood but is never easy to win with.
Rathlin Rose is more reliable, and a cracking offer at 5.7 on BETDAQ as I write. Back-to-back wins at this time last year, and in fine form again recently with win and second in the Sandown military gold cups. I hope that hasn’t taken too much out of him.
DRAWN TO A LINCOLN WILD CARD
4.50 Naas (Irish Lincolnshire) From 17 runners in the race last year, switched to Naas from the Curragh, the first six home by stall were 3, 8, 1, 2, 5, 4 on this tight left-hander.
The only CD winner in the race today, Pincheck, has won here over the distance twice, both times from stall 2. But he’s now in 11.
Three trainers hoping for a better break than last year have all been confounded by the draw again.
Aussie Valentine, seemingly an unlucky 2017 second from 8 – surrounded at the finish by stalls 1, 2, 3 – is pushed a bit farther out in 9 this time around.
Canary Row, seventh from gate 12 a year ago, is in 15 and Onenightidreamed, a former winner of the race, who was in 16 last time, is in 12 today. In draw order are:
1 On The Go Again Since breaking his maiden in July has registered form figures of 1031111, with three wins on heavy ground. Trainer form a worry, and needs a strong pace.
2 Beach Bar Well-exposed seven-year-old, often racing short of a mile, so this looks tough.
3 Captain Cat With a canary in the race, look out for the cat! Hit a purple patch for Roger Charlton in 2014. Only 1-17 since, the win coming two years ago.
4 Sorelle Delle Rose Both successes came short of a mile, and beaten favourite last twice. Champion jockey Pat Smullen prefers Saltonstall, despite his 13 draw.
His English equivalent, Ryan Moore, got it all wrong yesterday, when he got off Addeybb for Fire Brigade. The cold weather has been a setback for fillies.
5 Ontheiflist Winner on heavy over further, and given a pipeopener over hurdles recently. Beaten by On The Go Again at Tipperary in the autumn but has a pull in the weights now.
6 Wild As The Wind Lightly raced, beaten only two lengths in the Park Express (Group 3) on this very card a year ago, finishing behind Group-2 winner Somehow. First-time hood.
7 Hit The Silk Very lightly raced, finished well through beaten horses, just behind Onenightidreamed in a Listed at Leopardstown in October.
There’s never been a penny for him and he won at 50-1 under Chris Hayes on heavy ground at Limerick three weeks earlier.
If he’s going to win a big one, today’s the day with the yard getting 100% from its horses. But you can’t link connections to any market move with the bookies because he’s a Pricewise horse and his lemmings will crash the value this morning (except on BETDAQ).
8 Maths Prize Duel winner on good ground for Roger Charlton in the summer of 2016. Not a lot of form since and first run for Limerick yard of Richard John O’Brien, who also has Beach Bar and Captain Cat among the low drawn.
VERDICT: The market has ignored the bias, and we may regret being slaves to the draw. But, if to have an edge is to get big-odds value, then we’re well ahead on BETDAQ, as ever, with around 14.0 On The Go Again and Hit The Silk, and 18.5 Wild As The Wind.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.35 Ascot (staked to win 30)
BET 12pts win (nap) MALAYA
3.45 Ascot (win 30)
BET 5pts win and place BEAU BAY
4.20 Ascot (win 30)
BET 6.25pts win RATHLIN ROSE
4.50 Naas (win 50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 3.75pts win ON THE GO AGAIN
BET 3.75pts win HIT THE SILK
BET 2.75pts win WILD AS THE WIND
DAQ MULTIPLES:
3pts win double MALAYA (2.35 Ascot) and ROYAL LINE (4.10 Doncaster)
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