NAP AND DOUBLE UP! Daqman landed his Saturday nap, The Minack (WON 11-4), and doubled it with Big Buck’s (WON 3-10), just missing out on a big-race jackpot when his 20-1 Betdaq bet, Alarazi (3rd 16-1), was beaten a total of less than a length.
No, a thousand times ‘no’. That’s my answer to the Racing Post’s front-page question: Is 4-6 Big Buck’s for the World Hurdle ‘one of the best investments you can make?’
Let’s get the terminology right for a start: a gamble is a bet when you have no real idea of the outcome; an investment, when you are guaranteed some return (or at least you were until banks and insurance companies alike ripped us off).
The only way to back horses is to get as close to ‘investment’ as possible, where you remove as much of the ‘gamble’ as you can.
The ideal way to do that would be to find a horse in a race where you feel you can eliminate the opposition, for whatever reasons; then back that horse in a level-playing-field 100% book or, if you believe in fairies, an underround, where the odds are in your favour.
In Big Buck’s case, you already have the ideal situation with Betdaq: the ‘book’ of offers this morning works out at 100.17%, as I write; there is a pound paid back, or very very nearly so, for every pound bet.
But why back Big Buck’s now when, as for the past two years (SP 5-6 and 10-11), and almost certainly again on the big day (Cheltenham March 15), bookies and exchange layers will be out to get him.
Particularly when, in that ‘book’ today, is a totally stunning offer – available to more money than anything else in the list – about Thousand Stars, unexposed at the trip and the big improver of the race.
The 2010 County Hurdle winner at Cheltenham, fourth in this year’s Champion Hurdle and second in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, has made just one attempt at a stamina test, the French championship at Auteuil, and was successful in June, with Mourad and Grands Crus – second to Big Buck’s in the World Hurdle in March – both well behind.
Thousand Stars is 12.0 this morning, where Ladbrokes, whose name is screamed across that front page, go only 5-1. It’s a clever ploy: you offer the favourite with a run; the rest of your book is cramped (their prices about second and third favourites, Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars, are the shortest in the markets published in the same paper).
Talking of ‘investment’, if you ‘invest’ a large stake at 4-6, Ladbrokes have your money for their own ‘investment’ purposes for the next three months free of charge. Good business, or what!
A decent win for any one of Oscar Whiskey, Thousand Stars or the 24 others which are the subject of exchange offers from 27.0 to 455.0 would result in their ‘odds’ shortening and would (should!) potentially ease Big Buck’s.
If you think the World Hurdle 100% book of offers is a one-off, then check out the rest of the Betdaq lists for Cheltenham: incredible value.
When I checked this morning, the Triumph Hurdle best offers totted up to an absolutely unreal 82.5% ‘book’; the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle was a joy-to-bet-in 89% and the RSA 101%. No wonder the bookies are desperate!
UPDATE: Carruthers, taken for the Welsh National in this column at 12.0, is now 8.4, so we have some overs. The 0.8pts stake at 37.0 about The Minack seems lost, since the horse was switched to a race yesterday.
But we continued to ‘invest’ in the horse, and he landed the Saturday nap. Not so much a ‘gamble’, then.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 10pts win BOSTON BOB (1.05 Navan)
BET 4.1pts win FISHFORCOMPLIMENTS (2.45 Kempton)
BET 5.8pts win BOLLIN FIONA (3.00 Carlisle)
BET 7.4pts win (nap) GLASTONBERRY (5.15 Kempton)
ANTE-POST: WIN-30 JACKPOT 2.7pts win THOUSAND STARS (World Hurdle, Cheltenham, March 15).
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
