LUCKY? SUPREMELY SO WITH 102 POINTS PROFIT: His super staking plan yesterday guaranteed that Daqman took his profit to 102.50 points this week with four winners in two days, including the naps, William H Bonney (11-8) in his hat-trick on Monday and Supremely Lucky (WON 11-10) yesterday.
THERE’S MORE TO THE FORM THAN MEETS THE EYE: Daqman’s been assessing stable strike rates and today gets inside the mind of trainers. It all adds up to shrewd reassessment of a horse’s form figures, in which there could be more than meets the eye.
KEEP TRACK OF TRAINERS TACTICS
Home or away? Trainers are creatures of habit; they do today what paid off yesterday, and they have their favourite tracks and tactics.
I can’t name names for obvious reasons, but some of them also school or prepare horses on particular tracks, not intending them to win, having set these animals targets elsewhere.
You would guess that such prepping is done at the trainer’s local track but that’s not always the case. Gary Moore at the Sussex tracks, Tim Easterby at York, Paul Nicholls at his home venue, Wincanton, are just three that are well known for successfully harvesting their local prizemoney.
It’s for you to check out from a track’s trainer’s tables in the racing daily, and from such as our own Proform, which trainers do well on home ground, and which ones seem to send out runners there just for an outing. Make a list.
Make another list of trainers who do well when travelling long distances. The most obvious case is Yorkshire-based Mark Johnston’s farming of the prizes at Goodwood over the years.
Now use these lists alongside the stable form checks we talked about yesterday. Has the yard got a good strike rate or is it missing strike? Keep a note for future reference.
When you do your horses-to-follow list (as I do in this column) check out each horse’s form, applying the trainer’s tactics.
Imagine Horse A’s overall form is 010031210. Twice he’s run on a course which the trainer uses for a quiet prep. Delete those results and you have 0101210. Twice he’s run when the stable strike rate was poor (remember I told you to ‘keep a note for future reference’). Now he’s 01121.
His wins were all over a mile; reassessing him at one mile only, he becomes 0111. The stable’s runners always need their first run (delete the ‘0’) so you have a perfect 111. All you need now is patience.
HARA! KING SET FOR A FOUR-TIMER
12.30 Warwick Alan King is in stunning form; fantastic! How easily the Press apply such words, irrespective of the true merit.
But, if you believe that one measure of a trainer’s form is whether he’s winning with his favourites, you would find his results since November 14 are indeed spectacular: 22111111, still standing.
Harambe was a co-favourite when brought down early a fortnight ago, and we have reason to believe he’ll go well in this opener at Warwick, which has been won by horses of such calibre as Menorah and Yanworth.
Since 2010, the Alan King stable’s form in the race is 1020111, including the prolific winner Yanworth, so he’s going for a four-timer today.
1.10 Chepstow You wait all this time for a bet in a Chepstow maiden hurdle and then, all of a sudden, like London Buses, two come along at the same time.
Both divisions of this race throw up a bet for me. In this first division I’m sweet on the chances of Queenohearts. The mare, trained by Stuart Edmunds, made a pleasing debut in a bumper here before going on to win bumpers at Towcester and Sandown (Listed).
She appreciates give in the ground, looks progressive and the type to do well over hurdles. This also looks to be a good starting trip as she was staying on well in her bumper successes over 2m.
She is preferred to the David Pipe trained Know The Score who finished 14th in the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival.
1.40 Chepstow Paul Nicholls has started in new campaign in great form with 5 winners from his last 19 runners.
The Ditcheat-based trainer saddles Easyrun De Vassy who looks worthy of support here. He won a couple of Irish point to points in good style and fetched £105,000 att he sales.
He has a likely pedigree and is preferred to the more exposed Nativegetaway.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 12.5pts win (nap) HARAMBE (12.30 Warwick)
BET 6.7pts win QUEENOHEARTS (1.10 Chepstow)
BET 5.8pts win EASYRUN DE VASSY (1.40 Chepstow)
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