COMIC TURN TO LAND NATIONAL HAT-TRICK: Today Daqman bids for a third Grand National since Christmas when he tackles the Somerset National at Wincanton and finds an 8.2 shot named after a character in an Irish TV comedy. Daqman’s Nationals so far:
WON 3-1 ELEGANT ESCAPE (Coral Welsh National, Dec 27)
WON 11-8 THE TWO AMIGOS (Sussex National, Jan 6)
7-1 HIT MAKES IT SIX WINS IN FOUR DAYS: Daqman’s staking plan skilfully kept him in profit yet again yesterday with win and place bets on Cosmogyral (WON 7-1) at Kempton last night, maintaining his winner-a-day-plus with six hits in four days.
HOLDING OUT FOR A HERO
12.40 Ludlow Yesterday’s SUPERNAP ran poorly but the later 7/1 winner saved the day. A maximum 20 point stake is advised on the nap again today with Humble Hero in the opener at Ludlow, promoted to SUPERNAP status.
He was twice a winner on the flat when trained by William Haggas and made an encouraging start for Dan Skelton over hurdles when chasing home Bright Forecast at Leicester.
I’m hoping the form is a little above average, given the winner remains unbeaten and the faster ground today should suit Humble Hero who should only need to make normal improvement to land this.
Alan King let me down yesterday so will give his War Chief a swerve on hurdling debut after a long absence.
Back On The Lash was a modest third at Worcester, running out of steam in the closing stages, but the fourth has since given the form a boost and he looks the danger.
BACK LEN! GO ON, GO ON, GO ON..
2.25 Wincanton (Somerset National) The Somerset National has been won by all ages from seven to 12 and most weights from 10-10 to 11-12.
It’s been won by four women trainers and two women jockeys, by a 7lb claimer and by a champion, Tony McCoy. By two favourites and two 14-1 outsiders in the decade.
But the stats reveal one strange omission: no Somerset-based winning trainer. No Nicholls. No Hobbs. No Pipe. Can Philip Hobbs put that right today with the lightly raced Perform?
PERFORM performed Ok on the course three weeks ago in another Wincanton feature, staying on well in the Lord Stalbridge Memorial Cup, almost a quarter-mile shorter than today.
Amateur Mr Ben Jones, claiming 7lb, keeps the ride today, taking Perform to the foot of the handicap.
GUNFLEET is right at the top of the weights, another lightly raced but still only seven. Unlucky not to have landed a hat-trick in his first chase when, after a hurdles double, he had his head in front on the run-in but was just worried out of it.
Trainer Emma Lavelle admits he was ‘still a bit weak’ last year but is ‘a thorough stayer and a great jumper’ who should do better now.
WANDRIN STAR scored at this level by 14 lengths at Bangor on the first day of December (his two successes have both been on that course) and was not disgraced, upped to class 2 at Kempton, third, beaten less than four lengths.
BELMOUNT has more experience than most of these put together but races off his highest mark in 40 Rules races, after an autumn double. Tailed off on the last day, here at Wincanton.
DANCING SHADOW won the Edinburgh National, almost two years ago now but modest efforts in nine starts since, except for a surprise win over hurdles. Stable in poor form.
POTTERS CORNER broke his duck over fences with a surprise success here over a furlong shorter on Boxing Day. Had done very well at this level three races earlier, going down only a neck at Newbury. Stable in form but rain might spoil his chance.
GARRANE won back to back on heavy last Spring (up 16lb) and rain would be a godsend. Three seconds, including in a marathon, have pushed him 10lb higher without winning. Stable in form.
LIKE THE SOUND, a maiden over fences, has not done well since decent form over hurdles at the turn of the year in the 2016 -17 season. Stable is 2-6 in the last 12 days.
LEN BRENNAN Still a maiden too, but, if you take his last-day Plumpton form at face value, he is thrown in here at BETDAQ 8.2 this morning.
The Plumpton winner, Ok Corral, ran a fine trial for the NH Chase at Cheltenham with a six-lengths success at Warwick on Saturday.
Runner-up at Plumpton, only half a length up on Len Brennan, was Impulsive Star who went on to win the Warwick Classic on the same Saturday card.
Verdict: 1 Len Brennan, 2 Gunfleet, 3 Potters Corner.
The form of Len Brennan on the last day is as big a temptation to me as was Bishop Len Brennan’s rear end to Father Ted Crilly. Don’t fancy a bet on a maiden? Ah, go on, go on, go on…
DIVER TO MASTER CHIEF RIVAL
5.25 Newcastle This looks a spin up between Master Diver and Sporting Bill.
Preference is for Sir Mark Prescott’s Master Diver who was clueless on debut at Wolverhampton but still ran an eye-catching race. He lost plenty of lengths at the start, recovered and then was hampered two furlongs out (it’s worth watching the replay). The fact he still managed to finish fifth was pretty amazing and he will know plenty more tonight as the grey is stepped back in trip.
Sporting Bill improved for his debut at Kempton to finish second at Leicester on good to soft ground but that was in October and it’s hard to know what we can expect tonight – even though longer term he may be the better of the pair.
MUSSELBURGH INSPECT
Friday’s card at Musselburgh is subject to a precautionary inspection at 8am.
Due to the threat of frost overnight, clerk of the course Harriet Graham will check conditions out.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked as indicated)
12.40 Ludlow (SP)
BET 20pts win (SUPERNAP) HUMBLE HERO
2.25 Wincanton (win 30)
BET 3.3pts win LEN BRENNAN
5.25 Newcastle
BET 12.2pts win MASTER DIVER
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
