THURLES DOUBLE MAKES 32 POINTS PROFIT: Daqman raised the stakes yesterday and came out on top with 32 points profit from two out of two at Thurles: a supernap on Camelia de Cotte (WON 11-10) and a win-30 hit on Tout Est Permis (WON 13-8)
BIG-FIELD SUPERNAP AT WARWICK TODAY: Daqman names another supernap today in a race of 14 declared at the end of the day at Warwick. He has good reason. See: THE FAVOURITE GETS A FLYER
IT’S THE NOTORIOUS NATIONAL
Sixty-seven races, 63 defeats. That is now the record of the last 10 Grand National winners subsequent to their Aintree triumph, after the latest flop of One For Arthur in the Peter Marsh on Saturday.
In two reappearance runs since his big day at Aintree, the 2017 Aintree winner has unseated both times. In the Peter Marsh, he was 10 lengths last when it happened.
Meanwhile, the 2018 Liverpool-marathon winner, Tiger Roll, beaten on his return in a cross-country in November – the type of race he used to love – is a notable name missing from the entry lists, including Thursday’s Thyestes.
Tiger Roll has won three times at Cheltenham and may swerve Aintree and stick to the banks discipline in the hope of a festival four-timer.
And trainer Gordon Elliott’s Grand National aspirations may now lie with Monbeg Notorious, who goes for a Thyestes double in his first public appearance since the Punchestown Festival last Spring.
His form over obstacles when fresh is 112 – his overall form over fences 2211102 – and he has a Midlands National winner down the line on his dam’s side, with the trainer confident that he will be an even better horse once asked to use his stamina over longer distances.
UNBLINKING CATCHES THE EYE
2.40 Warwick Captain Cargo divided a class-2 performer and a winner since when second on today’s course in November.
He may be the danger to 5.6 BETDAQ offer Unblinking, who beat a big field here, also at Warwick in November. He’s up in the weights now but is unexposed at this trip and, when they step up to a marathon from Nigel Twiston-Davies’s yard, you have to sit up and take note.
Wind surgery may improve Sir Will but he still wears his tongue-tie and cheekpieces, and is 10lb higher than his last winning mark.
Ocean Cove, who has also had wind surgery, is rather slow and may do better chasing. Holly Bush Henry is back to his winning rating but it’s a year and eight blanks since that success.
Oh Land Abloom ran second here on the last day but it was a big surprise at 33-1, and he is 1-from-22 since October, 2015.
Though Ratfacemcdougall beat only two others home at Doncaster, the runner-up had won well on the same course a fortnight previously.
THE FAVOURITE GETS A FLYER
3.45 Warwick I usually stick to races of class 3 and better because you can generally trust the horses to perform as expected.
But another good place to find consistency is in hunter chases. Few animals can break into the elite band of hunters who can jump at speed, and they win time and time again.
Wrapped around his winning this, Monkerty Tunkerty (2012) had form of 11120101, Little Legend the following year 1141, Mendip Express (2016) was 122011; Grand Vision was launched by this race to set up 120121; and last year Grandturgeon came through the Point field to Rules racing and back to Points with figures of 1112111.
One thing else they all had in common was that they were favourite for this race but, because punters are generally wary of hunter chases, and because they often have big fields to contend with, only one SP was odds on.
Today’s second clue is that they all carry roughly similar weights, so the top ratings could be strong pointers, suggesting they are clearly quality animals.
Shantou Flyer (157) and Mr Mix (141) are clear of a group on 133 and 134: Brandon Hill, Cousin Pete, Net d’Ecosse, Tulsa Jack, Upswing.
It would be useful to be with a stable in form and a top amateur jockey. Tom George (Brandon Hill), Nigel Twiston-Davies (Double Ross), James Evans (Connetable) and Alexandra Dunn (Tulsa Jack) have the best recent stable form.
David Maxwell (Shantou Flyer) has ridden the winner of this race twice; Zac Baker (Double Ross) won the amateurs’ race at Ascot on Saturday.
The sequence horses are Hazel Hill, Cousin Pete and Bally River Boy.
But what’s favourite? At morning offers on BETDAQ, it’s Shantou Flyer clear, but Brandon Hill, Cousin Pete and Tulsa Jack also tick more than one box in my stats assessment.
Shantou Flyer was placed in Grade-3 three times last year, all at Cheltenham (including the festival), mostly on heavy ground.
But back in the day at a lower level and while still a novice, he had a winning sequence of 12111. Flyer!
MUCH ADO ABOUT ANNABELLE
4.50 Wolverhampton (Ladbrokes Handicap) Sandridge Lad is better off at the weights with Dragon Beat on their one-two here a month back. The one stall favoured Dragon Beat that day but Sandridge Lad has bagged it today and Dragon Beat is out in eight. The grey filly Lorna Cole is 2-3 in novice events but this is tougher.
Ado McGuinness came over a fortnight ago and scored here four days before landing a hat-trick at Dundalk, where his Annabelle Rock had beaten a previous winner in December.
Annabelle is a stone higher in the ratings but actually carries 7lb less and the drop back to 5f at Dundalk Polytrack seemed to combine her speed and stamina in an improved performance, and she may still be unexposed at the minimum. A sporting punt at 7.8 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.40 Warwick (win 20)
BET 4.25pts win UNBLINKING
3.45 Warwick (supernap)
Bet 20pts win SHANTOU FLYER
4.50 Wolverhampton (win 20)
BET 3pts win and place ANNABELLE ROCK
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