BLUE RIBAND OF BETTING DAYS ON THE DOWNS: One of the great Spring racing days for most of 170 years, recently revived as a package, Epsom’s Great Met and City and Suburban handicaps are combined with a tight sprint and with the Blue Riband Derby Trial for a fast and furious foursome on the Downs.
28.0 OUTSIDER AMONG BETDAQ VALUE OFFERS: It will be trickier than ever this year, with the ground good to firm overnight but with rain forecast. Pricewise is in hiding until Saturday but our own value hunter, his arch rival Daqman, finds some good offers on BETDAQ in all four races, 10.0 and 28.0 among them. Headlines:
DUKE DROPS IN FOR BULL’S-EYE HIT
GOSDEN REACHING FOR THE STARS
WAKE UP TO SLEEPY IN GREAT MET
MAZZURI CAN ZIP OUT OF THE GATE
DUKE DROPS IN FOR BULL’S-EYE HIT
2.10 Epsom This should be called the Deja Vu Sprint. It’s a rerun of last year’s race when Bohemian Sunrise, Shamshon, Just That Lord, Boom The Groom and Harry Hurricane were the 1-2-3-4-5.
Midnight Malibu and Duke Of Firenze are both CD winners so this is a reunion party, with three gatecrashers: Cox Bazar, Dark Shot and Merry Banter, none of whom have won after a break, and none have scored at Epsom, though Dark Shot has come very close in both respects.
When you have a heap of horses that have finished together, the quick way to check who’s now best in from that race is to rate them to 9st on their ratings then and now. They should have been equalised by the system.
In fact, the handicapper thinks he has created a four-way dead-heat! Bahamian Sunrise 96 (> 83), Shamshon 96 (>83), Just That Lord 86 (>83), Boom The Groom 86 (>87), Harry Hurricane 87 (>83). He’s a clever lad!
Merry Banter is up in grade and Midnight Malibu carries a penalty while, albeit a close third in this last year, Just That Lord has a poor strike rate on turf.
It’s easy to say that Cox Bazar has to give Dark Shot a stone but Bazar is a bizarre ‘hidden horse’, multiple sprint winner in France, a rare runner in England to have raced (and won) over shorter than five furlongs, yet has had wind surgery after a poor start – stone last on AW – for Ivan Furtado.
Dark Shot doesn’t like to have his head in front but he’s 6lb lower than when fifth in the ‘Dash’ here last year and was short-headed in the same race in 2017 (down 10lb). He’s almost certainly prepping for the Dash again but will be hard to beat in a modest field at around 5-1.
The best outsider at 10.0 on BETDAQ early doors is Duke Of Firenze, who hasn’t won for nearly two years but has since been placed three times at Epsom and has plumetted in the ratings.
He was a neck behind Dark Shot in last June’s Dash but is a massive 22lb better off, with his stable scoring twice from four runners in the last 11 days.
GOSDEN REACHING FOR THE STARS
2.45 Epsom (Blue Riband Trial) The Derby was nicknamed the ‘blue riband of the turf’ by the popular Press in the days of the transatlantic speed test for oceangoing liners.
This Spring trial declined sharply – along with Epsom itself as a training centre – after the great days of Blue Peter, Zucchero and, in coronation year, Premonition.
But it has had a fair injection of talent lately, thanks to John Gosden, an Epsom godsend with So Mi Dar and Cracksman winners among his four in a row under Frankie Dettori, who is on board again for a five-timer bid with Turgenev today.
Turgenev, a 4.7 BETDAQ offer, is largely unexposed because – expected to improve, as a son of Dubawi would – he was quickly put into the big time after impressing in novice events.
But the ground turned against him when second favourite for the Futurity (ex-Racing-Post) Stakes at Doncaster, or at least soft ground was a likely reason. The winner that day, Ballydoyle’s Magna Grecia, is only around 5-1 for the Guineas.
Typical of the way Aidan O’Brien plays his hand, stablemate Cape Of Good Hope represents Magna Grecia here today. As Highland Reel’s brother, he is a potential Derby ace but this is not the trial to reveal Ballydoyle’s best.
Cape Of Good Hope and Arthur Kitt were third and fifth when O’Brien won the Royal Lodge with Mohawk but then flopped in the Dewhurst. We’ll still be trying to fit the form jigsaw together until Derby Day itself!
Of those here today, only Cape Of Good Hope and the unexposed Mackaar officially have the Derby entry but you really have to stick with Gosden-Dettori if the race stats are to be maintained.
Was it before Oscar Wilde thought of it that Russian novelist Turgenev said: ‘We sit in the mud and reach for the stars.’ One of his best plays was Fortune’s Fool, so he must surely have been a betting man.
WAKE UP TO SLEEPY IN GREAT MET
3.45 Epsom (Great Metropolitan Handicap) In the good old bad old days of Victorian England, East End publicans whose premises were the betting havens of London put up the purses for two Spring races at Epsom, the Great Met and the City and Suburban. This Epsom Spring double is still going after 168 years.
Mark Johnston landed a gamble in the first leg two years ago, when Galapiat made all. Today he runs Fire Fighting, who was third in the second leg four years ago, and broke his maiden here what seems a long time ago now.
He is 6lb better off for threeparts of a length with the winner, Maybe Today, at Lingfield in March and the one-two is likely to be reversed today.
But one horse in the race has been set up to go one better than Fire Fighting and win this Epsom Spring double all on his own, Not So Sleepy.
Hughie Morrison has had three winners in the last 11 days and Not So Sleepy won the City And Sub in 2017. He has scored over hurdles recently, and Ryan Moore has been booked for the 5.9 BETDAQ offer.
MAZZURI CAN ZIP OUT OF THE GATE
3.55 Epsom (City And Suburban) Four-year-olds have won eight out of 10 and stalls 2 and 3 five out of seven. That makes the Raven’s Pass Irish import Mazzuri the stats qualifier.
Trainer Amanda Perrett had a winner at the Craven Meeting, and Mazzuri made all twice at Gowran Park, a similarly undulating track. She should get to the front from stall 3 under Jason Watson, and might at least hang on into a place: 28.0 on BETDAQ early mouse.
Mark Johnston’s Mildenberger (around 3-1), runner-up to Roaring Lion in the Dante, has won first time for two seasons running, and gets the break from the one stall.
Mountain Angel (from 5) also won on his reappearance last season but, though placed four times in a row, has failed to carry the penalty to victory.
Crossed Baton is yet another to score first time in 2018, and he then won the Blue Riband on this day but was behind Mildenberger in the Dante.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.10 Epsom (win 50, win 20)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 5.5pts win DUKE OF FIRENZE
BET 4pts win DARK SHOT
2.45 Epsom (win 30)
BET 8pts win (nap) TURGENEV
3.20 Epsom (win 20)
BET 4pts win NOT SO SLEEPY
3.55 Epsom (win 50, win 20)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 1.8pts win and place MAZZURI
BET 6.5pts win MILDENBERGER
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