EASY AS ABC DAQMAN GUIDE TO TOMORROW’S OAKS: After his ABC guide to the Derby runners yesterday, Daqman previews the Oaks today in the same style of stats and facts to analyse the chances of each filly. He focuses on five races today at Carlisle, Longchamp, Sandown, Wetherby and Yarmouth.
GOSDEN’S PEAK CHANCE IN THE OAKS
It’s a John Gosden one-two. His Anapurna (named after a mountain in the Himalayas) and Mehdaayih are top of the stats-and-facts tick boxes over Aidan O’Brien’s Ballydoyle squad for tomorrow’s Epsom Oaks, with Anapurna edging it on her low draw.
Frankie Dettori (Anapurna) and Robert Havlin (Mehdaayih) keep their winning Lingfield Oaks Trial and Cheshire Oaks mounts, trials which count for a lot in the key, though stamina, trainerform and the draw are valuable add-ons.
ABC KEY: 4.30 Oaks Stakes, Friday
A Winner or second Cheshire Oaks, Irish or English 1,000 Guineas, Pretty Polly Stakes, Musidora Stakes, Lingfield Oaks Trial.
B Sire Stamina index 10.2 plus
C Winning form at 1m 2f plus
D Trained Aidan O’Brien (7), Ralph Beckett (2), John Gosden (2)
+ Plus sign for stalls 2, 3, 4, 5, which altogether have a 50% record in the decade, though higher numbers have done well in smaller fields or via a talent like Enable. The one stall is a bogey draw, marked X.
ABCD+ Anapurna
By Frankel out of a Montjeu mare. Easy Lingfield Oaks Trial winner, galloping on strongly, ears pricked, moving forward ‘massively’ (says the form book) from breaking her maiden in January (ran green), having first seen a racecourse on AW just after Christmas. Well drawn.
ABCD Mehdaayih
Daughter of Frankel who readily won the Chester Vase to complete a hat-trick. Well balanced for Epsom. Supplemented, though same stable as Anapurna.
AB Frankellina
Yet another daughter of Frankel, related on the dam’s side to Rebecca Sharp and Golden Horn, and wears the Golden Horn colours of Anthony Oppenheimer. Lightly raced, runner-up in the Musidora, not much room a furlong out. Best form with cut in the ground.
AB Tauteke
aughter Of Sea The Stars. Won AW novice in November, and six-lengths second in the Lingfield Oaks Trial; kept on one paced.
AC+ Maqsad
By the sire of Laurens out of a Galileo mare. Behind Mehdaayih as a juvenile, but 2-2 this year, including five-lengths romp in the Pretty Polly Stakes. Well drawn.
ADX Manuela De Vega
Daughter of French 2,000 Guineas and Derby winner. Lightly raced, winning twice as a two-year-old. Not clear run, switched, but no chance with winner, Mehdaayih, in the Cheshire Oaks. Draw negative is the one stall.
BCD Pink Dogwood
Camelot sister to Irish Derby winner Latrobe. Only fifth in Marcel Boussac as a two-year-old; won Navan Listed easily last month.
BD Delphinia
Galileo daughter of Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Again. Soft-ground winner as a two-year-old. Not much room near the finish when third to Tarnawa in the Blue Wind.
BD Peach Tree
Beat Tarnawa in a Navan Listed in October, and ran on well (briefly short of room) when the positions were reversed in the Blue Wind.
B+ Lavender’s Blue
Sea The Stars filly who’s had only two starts; beaten in a Listed at Newbury on the last day.
B Blue Gardenia
Grey granddaughter of Galileo, reached Listed level as a two-year-old. Fifth in the Musidora when unfancied at 40-1; not much room a furlong out. Best form with cut in the ground.
C Tarnawa
Third to Pink Dogwood in April and then probably lucky to beat Delphinia and Peach Tree in unsatisfactory Blue Wind (1m 2f) at Naas. By a French Derby winner and not bred to step up to today’s trip but kept on well enough that day.
D Fleeting
Her dam’s sire, Motivator, won the Derby, and she looked the business last season when taking the May Hill Stakes. But she was unfancied and soon behind, last of 15 in the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas.
+ Sh Boom
Daughter of War Command, who had the second highest winners-to-runners ratio of any first-season sire last year, but their average winning distance was less than a mile. Unfancied, sixth of eight in the fillies’ trial at Newbury in May.
MAKAWEE SET FOR A QUICK DOUBLE
4.10 Wetherby A cracking fillies’ contest of 1m 6f. Like her sire did, Makawee is progressing with age. She was impressive at today’s level at York five days ago, galloping on strongly over 1m 4f.
She pinches a couple of pounds here, turning out quickly with a penalty off 2lb lower than her new mark, and trainer David O’Meara promises that we’ll see improvement as she goes up in trip.
You should always be on the look-out for a show of stable well-being on the edge of a big race like the Derby. Hughie Morrison runs Quicksand here hoping for a big weekend ahead with his biggest earners, Marmelo (Coronation Cup, tomorrow) and Telecaster (Derby Stakes, Saturday)
SUN SHOULD SHINE BY THE SEASIDE
4.50 Yarmouth Apart from the bottomweight, this handicap field at Newmarket-by-the-sea is separated by only 4lb, so we need to find an edge.
For starters, we’ll stick with trainers in form, and that means ditching Greek Kodica, with Mick Quinn now gone 84 days without a Flat winner and with a strike rate of only 1-20 this year.
Richard Spencer (0-16) has saddled 19 Flat runners in 26 days without success, so Spencer’s Son does not appeal.
And it’s three weeks now since a win for John Ryan (he’s responsible for that bottomweight, Catch My Breath), and his runners are starting any price (33-1 twice, 40-1, 50-1 three times, and 66-1).
Even worse, the two that have been backed of his nine starters in two weeks were both only fourth (at 3-1 and 7-2).
Dragon Sun is the sole runner in this to have won on turf. Only he and Love Your Work have scored over the distance. Both step up from class 5. But Dragon Sun kept quality company in his novice days, and Love Your Work has still to make the transition from AW.
A gelding op changed everything for Dragon Sun. ‘He’ has won 2-2 this Spring, at Lingfield and Beverley, favourite in both races, and is good value for a 4lb rise, hardly punishment for the solid Beverley strike.
POLYDREAM TO WIN HER ASCOT PREP
4.55 Longchamp Polydream is expected to land this Prix du Palais-Royal back to back, after the same sluggish start as last year. That’s where the comparison ends.
She followed up this race in 2018, dropped back in trip, to win the Prix Maurice de Gheest in the Deauville season but her target double this time is to follow success today with the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot.
James Tate’s Hey Gaman, runner-up in last year’s French Guineas, looks the danger here after returning to form in a Leicester Listed in April.
MAIDEN HAS CLASSIC CONNECTION
8.10 Sandown Maiden Castle split subsequent winners when runner-up at Chepstow and is improving all the time at home. He went down only a neck, giving weight to the winner.
That winner was Ralph Beckett’s Aloe Vera, who next time out would take the Goodwood Classic trial Height Of Fashion Stakes by three lengths from the Pretty Polly Stakes runner-up to Maqsad.
That puts Maiden Castle on around 107, getting weight from Gold Stick and Pondus here, but Gold Stick is a Dubawi, so could leap forward at this time.
Pondus struggled to score on the last day, possibly because of soft ground at Nottingham but, before that on the same course, making his debut, he was fourth to subsequent 2,000 Guineas runner-up, King Of Change (now rated 115).
DAQMAN’S BETS
4.10 Wetherby (supernap)
BET 20pts win MAKAWEE
4.50 Wetherby (win 20)
BET 6.25pts win DRAGON SUN
5.40 Carlisle (win 20)
BET 3.3pts win COASE
8.10 Sandown (win 20)
BET 7.6pts win MAIDEN CASTLE
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