STARTING TODAY: 90-PLUS RACES AT TWO GLORIOUS FESTIVALS: Daqman landed his nap, Pop Dancer (WON 6-5) yesterday, continuing his winner-a-day sequence, after Flashcard (WON 3-1) and Themaxwecan (WON 2-1). Today he launches the Galway Festival with a heads up on stats and facts. Tomorrow is the start of Glorious Goodwood which then runs alongside Galway; both are right-handed tracks with a hill finish. But how many winners can you get from the 90-plus races at the two festivals!
COURSE FORM HOT AT GALWAY RACES
⚠️ HEADS UP: 22 of the winners at last year’s Galway Festival (55 races) had previously run on the course, 10 of them as winners. Course winners running on the first day are: 5.55 Castlehume (CD); 7.40 Baba Boom, Rovetta and Great Trango (CD).
⚠️ HEADS UP: The stats are a pointer whether you are backing favourites or prefer outsiders. Examples: today’s opener has been won five times out of six by the favourite, but the very next race has never gone to the market leader and all bar one winner has been a double-figure price at SP.
Some 14 of the 20 novice and maiden hurdles over the past five seasons have gone to the favourite (Willie Mullins has won 13 of the 20).
⚠️ HEADS UP: Winning stables today: Dermot Weld 13, Willie Mullins 8, Aidan O’Brien 3, Tony Martin 3, P A Fahy 2, Jessica Harrington 2, Thomas Mullins 2.
Tony Martin and Henry De Bromhead are the trainers on a surge, De Bromhead with 12 festival winners overall since 2014, including two in the Galway Plate, Martin with 17 in that time (14 of them in handicaps).
SAFE AS HOUSES?
2.30 Ayr Trainer Roger Fell has had four winners over the last two weeks and went agonisingly close with Kapono at York over the weekend who was only collared in the dying stages having traded at the basement 1.01 on BETDAQ.
The North Yorkshire based trainer looks to have a good chance in this sprint handicap at Ayr with House Deposit.
The three-year-old has had just the one start for Fell since joining from Declan Carroll and shaped well enough at Doncaster but should be a much better proposition on today’s softer ground.
His two career wins have both come on soft ground and in a race where many are not certain to appreciate softer conditions it’s easy to see why there has been plenty of support for him this morning.
Main danger Forever A Lady isn’t necessarily going to be suited by the drop back to six furlongs.
3.30 Ayr Al Erayg Is another that could be better suited by the return to softer conditions.
The Tim Easterby trained runner has been a gradual slider in the handicap who has been doing much of his recent work on faster ground.
He was a beaten favourite at Beverley last time out but beaten less than three lengths in sixth place and David Allan is onboard again today.
Presidential was tardy from the start last time but is down in class and is another from the Roger Fell stable.
4.00 Ayr Shoot For Gold looks the nap on the card. The Godolphin runner was a seven length winner at Windsor on his second start when the ground was also soft and was then outclassed on better ground at Saint-Cloud in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud.
This is a whole different ball game though and with the ground he likes a starting mark of 94 doesn’t look prohibited for this St Leger entrant.
EVEREST COULD GO RIGHT TO THE TOP
7.40 Galway Willie Mullins is likely to have the front three in the market – Mr Adjudicator, Royal Illusion and Legal Spin – with Legal Spin’s recent duel with Shakespear’sgallery at the Curragh providing a major clue, since the third horse divided Brazos and Mr Everest in the Irish Cesarewitch.
Mr Everest has continued to improve, winning the November Handicap, and he looks the better of Tony Martin’s pair, with Newcross always inclined to make his own trouble in a race.
Baba Boom went up two stone for a hat-trick completed on this day at this meeting last year in the Eventus Handicap (8.10). He was described as ‘a stayer going places.’ But he hasn’t been out since.
Derek O’Connor rides today which is a heads up but, with his stable out of form and trying this 2m+ for the first time, I’m going to guess that this is a wake-up call for his real objective, Friday’s Guinness Handicap, over a trip more in keeping with his form.
Brazos has to give lumps of weight all round; it’s not really far enough for Litterale Ci; and the drying weather is against Great Trango. I took 9.0 Mr Everest on BETDAQ, with a saver Baba Boom at 10.0, just in case.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.30 Ayr (win 10)
BET 4.8pts win HOUSE DEPOSIT
3.30 Ayr (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win AL ERAYG
4.00 Ayr (win 20)
BET 8.8pts win (nap) SHOOT FOR GOLD
7.40 Galway (win 30, win 10)
BET 3.75pts win MR EVEREST
BET 1pt win BABA BOOM
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