HEADS UP! DAQMAN MARKS YOUR CARDS: What’s the secret of the Pertemps qualifier at Sandown on Saturday; why is Verdana Blue in the news today; which leading trainer at two meetings this afternoon has a runner at each? Daqman provides the answers – and more – in his Heads Up racing preview.
KEMPTON LISTED ACTION: Three bets again from DAQMAN on Wednesday – all at Kempton including in the Listed race.
A JOB FOR THE BOYS AT SANDOWN
⚠️ HEADS UP: Be warned when checking out the riding plans for Sandown on Saturday that the last four winning jockeys of the Pertemps qualifier have all been claimers: three took off between 7lb and 10lb; three brought their mount’s weight down to between 10st 1lb and 10st 5lb.
⚠️ HEADS UP: Two of the last three winners of the Becher Chase at Aintree, Walk In The Mill and Vieux Lion Rouge, could clash in the race again on Saturday.
Vieux Lion Rouge, the 2016 winner, was second to Walk In The Mill in the race last year but was down the field in 2017.
The Tingle Creek at Sandown on Saturday may also field two previous winners, Politologue (2017) and Un De Sceaux (2016), who was second to Altior last year.
⚠️ HEADS UP: Daqman’s predictions. Fakir D’Oudairies will return to two miles; Altior will return to two miles; Black Op will step up to three miles.
⚠️ HEADS UP: Fill your wallet quick! You might just have time to get to the Sales today to buy Verdana Blue, winner of last year’s Christmas Hurdle for Nicky Henderson.
⚠️ HEADS UP: Charlie Appleby, leading trainer percentage-wise at both Lingfield and Kempton, has one runner at each meeting today: Late Romance (2.50 Lingfield) and Loxley (5.40 Kempton).
⚠️ HEADS UP: There are five Graded races on Sunday, spread among Cork (3), Punchestown (the Grade-1 John Durkan) and Huntingdon (Peterborough Chase).
⚠️ HEADS UP: When Anthony Mullins’s Party Playboy ran second in the Newmarket Cesarewitch at 50-1, the English Flat handicapper thought it a fluke and raised him only 5lb to 87, even though he’d beaten 95 and 94 horses into third and fourth.
But I understand that Playboy’s 11-lengths hurdles romp at Fairyhouse on Saturday has persuaded the Irish Jumps handicapper to lift him a stone! I only wish they would run the Ascot Stakes at Christmas!
DON’T DESERT ISLAND AT KEMPTON
5.40 Kempton (Wild Flower Stake Listed) Not only the best race of the day but one of the most competitive too, over this mile and a half trip at Kempton.
John Gosden saddles two, including Weekender who is officially rated the best in the race but has been notably weak in the early BETDAQ market. He’s 3-3 on the all-weather but all those victories have come at Chelmsford in lesser grade races than this. Two of those wins came over 1m 6f and the other over 1m 2f and he comes into this on the back of a Listed race third over tonight’s trip at Newmarket.
Gosden also runs the filly Hameem who was an impressive course and distance winner of a class 3 handicap in August and ran a creditable runner-up to the odds-on Aidan O’Brien trained Delphinia in a Listed contest at Lingfield last time out. She’s been kept to fillies and mares races exclusively in her last five starts and might find life tougher here.
Loxley could be the one to spoil things for the Gosden pair. The Charlie Appleby (see HEADS UP above) trained runner has knocked on the door in his last two starts, both in Listed company – the latest of which was last time out over course and distance.
The headgear goes on for the first time which hopefully will make the difference.
6.40 Kempton Rangali Island looks worthy of NAP status for trainer David Simcock and jockey Callum Shepherd who combined with a winner here on Friday.
I watched Rangali Island win over course and distance last month and he looked to have plenty left in the tank. It’s no surprise to see him hiked up 7lb but he could be progressing at a faster rate and it was pleasing to see the form take a boost when 66/1 runner-up Samphire Coast proved his run was no fluke by winning next time out at Chelmsford.
Original second favourite One Cool Daddy is weak in the market but should be suited by the step-up in trip from 7f to a mile.
7.10 Kempton I’m again drawn to a Michael Appleby trained runner – this time Crimson King who is visored for the first time and looks potentially well handicapped at present.
He joined the Appleby stable from Ireland and ran creditably enough on his UK debut when third at Southwell. If you go back in the form book there are some lines which stand out like a beacon in terms of his ability – a sixth to Circus Maximum at the Curragh was no shabby effort and Appleby is just the sort of trainer that might be able to unlock a first win from him.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 3.4pts win LOXLEY (5.40 Kempton)
BET 7.8pts win (nap) RANGALI ISLAND (6.40 Kempton)
BET 2.5pts win CRIMSON KING (7.10 Kempton)
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