PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: We preview Saturday’s Premier League matches with recommended BETDAQ bets and extended match stats. The action starts with Everton v Arsenal at 12.30pm.

EVERTON V ARSENAL

12.30pm It’s the last weekend before Christmas and we have some cracking fixtures! We kick things off with Everton hosting Arsenal after a rollercoaster few weeks for both clubs. Everton have really upper their game under Duncan Ferguson, but the club have seemingly decided to bring in Carlo Ancelotti but whether he is in place for this fixture remains to be seen. Arsenal are still searching for their manager, and it would be a brave man to take charge of them given all the drama with the fans!

The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Everton 2.46, Arsenal 2.96 and the draw is 3.85. This should be a very interesting game. Both sides have struggled this year, but it’s Everton who have reacted the better of the two to recent changes. Apart from the West Ham game, a club who could see changes very soon too, Arsenal have been poor all around and with Everton playing a lot better since the change of manager, we’re happy to lay Arsenal at 2.96.

BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Arsenal at 2.96.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQevears

MATCH STATS

  • Everton won this exact fixture 1-0 in April, but haven’t won back-to-back league games against Arsenal since a run of three between March 1985-April 1986.
  • Arsenal have won more Premier League games (33) and scored more Premier League goals (107) against Everton than they have against any other side in the competition.
  • Having kept a clean sheet in both of their opening two Premier League games this season, Everton have conceded at least once in 14 of their last 15 matches.
  • Since losing 2-6 at home to Tottenham in December last year, Everton have won four of their last five home Premier League games against London sides (D1).
  • Arsenal are looking to secure consecutive away league wins within the same season for the first time since October 2018 (a run of three). However, the Gunners have won just three of their last 36 Premier League away games against fellow ever present sides (D11 L22), most recently at Everton in October 2017.
  • In all competitions, Arsenal are without a clean sheet in their last 14 games, their longest streak since a run of 21 games between October 1983-February 1984.
  • Everton have scored a league-high share 65% of their Premier League goals in the first half of games this season (13/20). Meanwhile, only bottom three sides Norwich (20) and Southampton (18) have conceded more goals in the opening 45 minutes than the Gunners (16).
  • Arsenal have conceded the first goal in more Premier League games than any other side this season (11). In no other Premier League season have the Gunners conceded first in as many games before Christmas (also 11 in 2006-07).
  • Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s 11 Premier League goals have been worth 11 points to Arsenal this season, more than any other player in the division. He’s scored in six of the Gunners’ last seven league wins, including 4/5 this season.
  • 14 different players to have previously played for Arsenal in the Premier League have then scored against them in the competition, with Everton’s Alex Iwobi and Theo Walcott potentially joining that list in this match. Cesc Fàbregas was the last player to do so in Chelsea’s 3-1 victory at Stamford Bridge in February 2017 against the Gunners.

ASTON VILLA V SOUTHAMPTON

3pm This is another massive clash at the bottom of the table for Southampton. They have been involved in so many bottom five clashes recently. Unfortunately for them, they still sit in the bottom three but they are level on points with Aston Villa, so a win here for either side would be massive. Villa were able to beat a very young Liverpool side 5-0 midweek in the Cup and that will be a nice boost for their confidence – despite the low level of opposition. Villa have looked a lot more comfortable at home and with Southampton conceding too many goals we like the home win at 2.5. That looks ten ticks too big for us – Southampton have conceded in their last 12 Premier League games and Villa can claim a big three points here with home advantage.

BETDAQ BEST BET:
Aston Villa to beat Southampton at 2.5.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQastsou

MATCH STATS

  • Aston Villa are winless in their last five Premier League meetings with Southampton (D3 L2), with this their first meeting since a 2-4 home defeat in April 2016.
  • Since they returned to the Premier League in 2012, Southampton are unbeaten in their four top-flight away games against Aston Villa (W2 D2). Saints scored as many goals in their last such game at Villa Park as they had in their previous eight combined (4).
  • Aston Villa are looking to avoid losing four consecutive league matches for the first time since a run of five in February 2017 in the Championship.
  • If Southampton fail to win, they’ll be in the relegation zone at Christmas in the Premier League for the first time since 2004-05, when they suffered the drop at the end of the season. However, only Sunderland (3) and Wigan (3) have avoided relegation having been in the drop zone at Christmas in the competition than Saints (2 – in 1993-94 and 1998-99).
  • Southampton haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 12 Premier League games – no side is currently on a longer run without one in the competition.
  • Excluding penalties, Aston Villa have conceded a Premier League high 10 goals from set-piece situations this season. Meanwhile, six of Southampton’s last eight goals in the competition have come from a set-piece.
  • Aston Villa have faced more shots than any other Premier League side this season (312), while they also have a higher expected goals against value than any other side (33.87). Their record of 18.4 shots faced per game is the most in a Premier League campaign since Reading in 2012-13 (18.6).
  • Excluding own goals, 15 of Southampton’s 18 Premier League goals this season have been netted by English players, the highest ratio in the division (83%). Indeed, each of their last 13 strikes have been netted by Englishmen.
  • Of the 16 sides to have taken a penalty in the Premier League this season, Aston Villa are the only one yet to score from the spot, with Wesley missing against Norwich and Jack Grealish missing against Sheffield United last time out.
  • Danny Ings is Southampton’s top Premier League goalscorer this season with nine goals, and could become just the third player to reach double figures for the club before Christmas in a season in the competition (Matt Le Tissier 1994-95, James Beattie 2002-03).

BOURNEMOUTH V BURNLEY

3pm This should be a very close game between two very evenly matched sides. Only two points separate the sides in the table and while they look reasonably safe at the moment – a run of losses would see them in a relegation battle given how tight it is in the bottom six. Bournemouth have been on a very poor run of form, but surprisingly have beaten Manchester United and Chelsea! Burnley managed to get back to winning ways after some tough fixtures against Spurs and Manchester City – we can excuse any side to losing against those top sides though, especially with Mourinho how at Spurs. Over all looking at both sides, we can’t have Bournemouth as short as 2.44 to win here. Burnley will definitely make this game closer than those odds suggest and from a value point of view, we’re happy to lay the home win.

BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Bournemouth at 2.44.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQboubur

MATCH STATS

  • Bournemouth have won just one of their last five home league games against Burnley (D1 L3), losing each of the last two in a row.
  • Burnley have won four of their six Premier League meetings with Bournemouth (L2), including both fixtures last season.
  • Burnley have found the net in each of their last 10 league meetings with Bournemouth (W6 D2 L2) since a 0-0 draw in April 1999.
  • Bournemouth’s 1-0 win at Chelsea last time out ended a run of five straight league defeats for the Cherries. They’re now looking to secure back-to-back Premier League victories for the first time since September.
  • Burnley have won just one of their last 10 Premier League away games (D4 L5), beating Watford 3-0 in November. The Clarets’ last nine top-flight away wins have been against sides starting the day in the bottom half, with the average position of those opponents being 16th.
  • Bournemouth haven’t lost three consecutive home league games since April 2016 – the second game of which was also against Liverpool.
  • Bournemouth have scored a league-high 32% of their Premier League goals this season from corners (6/19). Indeed, both Bournemouth and Burnley have scored a joint league- high total of six goals from corners in the competition this term.
  • All five of Bournemouth’s Premier League wins this season have been with Josh King in the starting lineup – they’ve lost four and drawn one of their five games without the Norwegian in the starting XI.
  • Burnley striker Chris Wood has scored more Premier League goals than any other Clarets player this season (7) and has netted three goals in his four top-flight matches against Bournemouth.
  • Since the start of last season, Burnley’s Chris Wood has scored more headed goals in the Premier League than any other player (10). Indeed, of players with at least 25 goals in Premier League history, Wood has scored the eighth highest ratio from headers (46.4% – 13/28).

BRIGHTON V SHEFFIELD UNITED

3pm It’s fair to say that a lot of people thought both of these sides would be battling it out to stay in the Premier League this season. Sheffield United have been absolutely excellent though and sit in seventh position heading into this weekend. Brighton are in 13th; just a little bit away from danger, however they are a much improved side this season compared to the way they finished last season – this should be a good game. Despite Brighton playing some good football at times this season, we can’t have them as short as 2.28 to beat a side with the confidence and record of Sheffield United coming into this one. They have really held their own in the Premier League after being favourites to go back down, and we have to lay Brighton at the odds here. It looks like one of the best lays of the weekend.

BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Brighton at 2.28.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbrishe

MATCH STATS

  • This is the first ever top-flight meeting between Brighton and Sheffield United, and the first meeting of any kind since a 3-1 win for the Blades in the Championship in January 2006.
  • All 24 previous league meetings between Brighton and Sheffield United have been in the second tier. The Yorkshire outfit are unbeaten in their last four visits to Brighton (W2 D2).
  • Brighton have gone three Premier League games without defeat (W1 D2), last enjoying a longer unbeaten run in the competition in March 2018 (five games).
  • Sheffield United are looking to record three consecutive Premier League victories for the first time since a run of four between May and August 1993 under Dave Bassett.
  • Sheffield United have already gained more away points this season (12) than they did in the whole of their previous campaign in the top-flight (11 in 2006-07).
  • Sheffield United are looking to become only the second newly-promoted team in the history of the English top-flight to remain unbeaten in their first nine away matches of a season, with Burnley in 1947-48 the only other instance.
  • Only Watford (55), Crystal Palace (55) and Newcastle (59) – the three lowest scorers in the Premier League this season – have had fewer shots on target than Sheffield United this season (60). However, only three of the current top four (Liverpool 47, Leicester 48 and Chelsea 55) have faced fewer shots on target than the Blades (58).
  • Neal Maupay has scored seven of Brighton’s 21 Premier League goals this season – no other player has more than two for the Seagulls. He could become the first player to score in four consecutive Premier League matches for the south coast side.
  • Of the nine English goalkeepers to play more than once in the Premier League this season, Sheffield United’s Dean Henderson has the best minutes-per-goal conceded ratio in the competition (one every 111 minutes).
  • Sheffield United’s John Fleck has scored four goals in his last seven Premier League games – as many as he had in his previous 98 in league competition for the Blades. Indeed, he’s already matched his highest ever goal tally in a single season in English league football (also four in 2015-16 and 2016-17).

NEWCASTLE V CRYSTAL PALACE

3pm This should be another very close game, between two evenly matched sides again today! There’s only one point between them in the league table, but it’s fair to say that while Palace have had their moments, Newcastle have been the better side lately. After a bad start to the season, the home side have really climbed the table and a win here would put them in the top half. Palace have been rock solid at the back, but they have paid the price for that with their goal scoring ability up front. Under 2.5 goals is a very tempting bet at 1.62 because it’s very hard to see a lot of goals between these sides, but we can’t get away from the Newcastle win at 2.52. That looks cracking value with home advantage against a side who struggle to score. We expect a very close game, but Newcastle to grind out another home win and at the odds it’s a good value bet at 2.52.

BETDAQ BEST BET:
Newcastle to beat Crystal Palace at 2.52.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQnewcry

MATCH STATS

  • Newcastle lost this exact fixture 0-1 in April but have never lost consecutive home league games against Crystal Palace.
  • The last five Premier League meetings between Newcastle and Crystal Palace have produced just five goals (3 for Newcastle, 2 for Crystal Palace), with no side scoring more than once in that time. Indeed, the match that immediately preceded this run saw more goals scored (Crystal Palace 5-1 Newcastle, November 2015).
  • Newcastle United are unbeaten in their last seven home Premier League matches (W3 D4), last enjoying a longer unbeaten run at St James’ Park back in April 2012 (nine unbeaten).
  • Newcastle lost their last Premier League game against Burnley – they haven’t lost consecutive league matches since their opening two games of the season (vs Arsenal and Norwich).
  • London clubs have won six of their last seven Premier League away games against Newcastle (D1), keeping a clean sheet in each of the last four. This comes after a run that saw sides from the capital lose seven of eight visits to St James’ Park in the competition (W1).
  • Crystal Palace have scored a league-high ratio 73% of their Premier League goals in the second half of games this season (11/15). The Eagles are the only side yet to score in the opening 15 minutes of games this season, with their earliest strike coming in the 21st minute.
  • Crystal Palace’s Premier League games have seen just 34 goals this season (F15 A19), fewer than any other side in the competition. Just one of the Eagles’ 17 games has seen a side score more than twice (0-4 vs Tottenham).
  • Seven of Jordan Ayew’s first nine shots in the Premier League this season were on target, with two of those finding the net. Since then the Ghanaian striker has had 17 shots, but just two have been on target (both scored).
  • Newcastle boss Steve Bruce enjoyed his joint-biggest ever margin of victory as a manager in a match against Crystal Palace, beating the Eagles 7-1 with Huddersfield in August 1999.
  • Crystal Palace boss Roy Hodgson has faced Steve Bruce more often without losing than he has any other manager in the Premier League (7 – W3 D4). This is the first meeting between the two managers since Hodgson’s West Brom drew 2-2 at Bruce’s Sunderland in October 2011.

NORWICH V WOLVES

3pm Norwich managed to get a point away to Leicester last weekend which was no mean feat given how good Leicester have been this season. It keeps them within touching distance of their clubs above them, but the reality is they are three points off the 18th placed club and they need to start winning. A point away to Leicester is a bonus really, and it’s game like this that they must pick up points in if they are going to stay up. Wolves lost at home to Spurs last weekend but they had been on a good run prior to that and it’s no shame losing to Spurs at the moment – they have improved under Mourinho. While Norwich performed well against Leicester, we need to see more from them to consider backing them and given Wolves are slightly odds against for this one, we feel that the value is definitely with Wolves here and we’re happy to back an away win.

BETDAQ BEST BET:
Wolves to beat Norwich at 2.02.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQnorwol

MATCH STATS

  • The only previous Premier League meetings between Norwich and Wolves came in the 2011-12 campaign, with the Canaries winning 2-1 at home and drawing 2-2 away.
  • Wolves won their last away league game against Norwich, 2-0 in the Championship in October 2017, having lost each of their last four league games at Carrow Road before that.
  • Wolves have only won two of their 17 away Premier League games against teams starting the day in the relegation zone (D4 L11), picking up just four points in their four games of this kind since the start of last season (W1 D1 L2).
  • Norwich are without a clean sheet in their last 12 home Premier League games, their joint-longest such run in the competition (also 12 between October 2004-March 2005). The Canaries have conceded 40 goals in their last 17 top-flight home games, as many as they had in their previous 40 at Carrow Road.
  • Wolves have lost just one of their last 12 Premier League games (W5 D6), though it was in their last match (1-2 against Spurs). They last lost consecutive league games in September.
  • Wolves have both scored and conceded in 13 Premier League games this season – no side has done so in more. Wolves have found the net in their last 16 games, the second longest current run in the competition (Liverpool, 26).
  • Norwich have the biggest negative difference (-37) between shots on target (66) and shots on target faced (103) in the Premier League this season. They’re facing 6.1 shots on target per game this season – since 2003-04, the 14 clubs to have faced 6+ shots on target per game in a complete Premier League campaign have all been relegated.
  • Norwich striker Teemu Pukki has scored nine Premier League goals this season – the last player to reach double figures in a season before Christmas for a newly-promoted side was Odion Ighalo in 2015-16 for Watford (12 goals).
  • Raúl Jiménez’s assist last time out against Spurs was his 31st goal involvement in the Premier League (19 goals, 12 assists), more than any other Wolves player in the competition. He needs just one more goal to become just the second player to reach 20 for the club in the Premier League (Steven Fletcher, 22).
  • Diogo Jota has scored five goals in his last three appearances for Wolves in all competitions, more than he had in his previous 24 for the club (4).

MANCHESTER CITY V LEICESTER

5.30pm What a way to end the day! Both these sides have been close to the standard required to get within touching distance of Liverpool, but this is a massive game for both of them. Surely Manchester City have to still believe they can win the title – even though it looks impossible for anyone to catch Liverpool. City have built up some nice wins after a very dodgy period for them – especially at the back where they have been making too many mistakes. Leicester will fully test them at the back again this evening though, and we’re in for an excellent game.

The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Manchester City 1.38, Leicester 8.8 and the draw is 6.0. We’ve had some great success laying Manchester City recently here at odds of 1.22 and 1.34 and we’re happy to lay them again at 1.38 here. We just can’t have them that short against a side like Leicester. It would have been bitterly disappointing for Leicester to draw at home to Norwich and put a dint in their title hopes, but they can really test City here with Vardy in excellent form. Let’s see how City hold up at the back today, but we’re happy to lay them at 1.38.

BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Manchester City at 1.38.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmcilei

MATCH STATS

  • Manchester City have won four of their last five Premier League meetings with Leicester, losing the other in December last season (1-2 at King Power Stadium).
  • Leicester have lost their last three Premier League away games against Man City, having won four of their first five visits to Maine Road/Etihad Stadium in the competition (L1).
  • Manchester City haven’t lost consecutive home league games since February 2016 under Manuel Pellegrini. However, one of those games was against Leicester (1-3), which was also the last time the sides faced with Leicester above the Citizens in the table.
  • Manchester City have won 249 Premier League games since 1st January 2010 – they could become just the second team in English top-flight history to reach 250 victories in a single decade, after Manchester United in the 2000s (255).
  • Leicester have won their last four Premier League away games, by an aggregate score of 17-1. The Foxes have never previously won five consecutive away games in the top-flight.
  • Leicester are winless in their last nine Premier League away games against reigning champions (D2 L7) since a 1-0 win against Man Utd in January 1998. The Foxes have failed to score in eight of those games.
  • Leicester are one of just two teams with a 100% winning record when scoring first this season (along with Liverpool), winning all nine such games so far. Meanwhile, no side has won more games when conceding the first goal than the Foxes (3).
  • Man City’s Sergio Agüero has scored five goals in his five home Premier League games against Leicester, despite the Argentine failing to score in three of those matches.
  • Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has the most goals in the Premier League this season (16), while Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne has the most assists (9). They’re the top two players for most goal involvements in the competition this season (Vardy 19, De Bruyne 15).
  • Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers’ next defeat will be his 50th in the Premier League – only against Manchester United (8) has he lost more games in the competition than he has against Manchester City (4).

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