GOOD NEWS SATURDAY: BETDAQ OPEN FOR BUSINESS AS SHOPS SHUT: Betting shops in Britain are closed by order of the government but racing continues behind closed doors in Ireland, and betting is available on every race in BETDAQ value markets. This is your chance to enjoy what punters in the shops have been missing: markets developed by you the punter on demand.
GOOD NEWS SATURDAY: RACING ON ITV AND DAQMAN HAS IT COVERED: Terrestrial TV has quickly joined the action in Ireland, with five races from Thurles on ITV4 from 1.40 to 3.40 today. Keep your Daq up and compare prices and information with BETDAQ offers and the tipping efforts of Daqman and Shamrock, who landed his nap at Dundalk yesterday. Headlines:
🔹 IS IT ANOTHER LAYERS’ LAMENT
🔹 TRY BIG-WINNER WALSH AGAIN
🔹 ‘SIZING’ UP RACE OF THE DAY
🔹 BUSTER KEY TO NAP SUCCESS
🗓️ TOMORROW: The Ulster National at Downpatrick
🗓️ NEXT WEEK: The start of the Flat with winner-finding Daqman secrets.
IS IT ANOTHER LAYERS’ LAMENT
⚠️ HEADS UP After a stunning six out of seven winning favourites on the Flat yesterday at Dundalk (AW), layers today face one of the best Jumps meetings for the ‘jolly.’ Hurdles and chases at Thurles both show a better-than-50% record for favourites (58-113 hurdles and 42-83 chases).
⚠️ HEADS UP Thurles is one of Paul Townend’s favourite tracks (32% strike rate). No surprise that this percentage is matched by Willie Mullins (33%). Paul’s form in the last two weeks? 32%
TRY BIG-WINNER WALSH AGAIN
⭕ 2.10 Thurles Eoin Walsh is less than two weeks on from the biggest victory of his career, winning the Leinster National at Naas for Gigginstown and Noel Meade on Cap York.
Says Noel: ‘I told Eoin to get him going quickly and show him plenty of encouragement. He did it really well.. And now I’m hoping they will run the Irish Grand National.’
Today Martin Hassett has Eoin’s 7lb claim making a feather weight of 10st 2lb for course-winner Mary Frances in this stayers’ hurdle.
The mare has already raced kindly for an apprentice, winning at Punchestown in February for Cathal Landers in the Pertemps qualifier over 3m on heavy ground.
Martin sees her as ‘virtually unbeatable’ in the mud, so he’s hoping plenty of juice remains in the Thurles terrain. She’s likely to try to make all, as this is over a shorter trip.
Incidentally, Eoin rode in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham, third – again for Noel Meade – on Tout Est Permis, behind a pair of Gordon Elliott’s: Sire Du Berlais and The Storyteller.
He has another Elliott duo to worry about in this race today, both apprentice ridden – Cartwright and Ferocious – but both ran stinkers on the last day, Cartwright 16 of 16 in Mary Frances’s qualifier.
Jetz is only 1-10 over hurdles and that was his maiden way back; always a bad sign. That also applies to Karl Der Grosse, and that solitary success was on a sound surface.
Moyhenna might recapture her old form in first-time cheekpieces, trainer Denis Hogan having had a winner, well backed, at Dundalk yesterday.
My conclusion is that Noel Meade has the danger to Eoin Walsh! The man he rode the Leinster National winner for will saddle Brace Yourself, who slammed a big field at Down Royal.
The seven-year-old was overfaced in the Boyne Hurdle (Grade 2), in between taking on top-notch novice chasers Easy Game and Allaho at Leopardstown (third halfway, mistake and fell four out). Too big at 7.4 in the BETDAQ orange, as I write. Mary Frances 3.1.
‘SIZING’ UP RACE OF THE DAY
⭕ 3.10 Thurles (Pierce Molony Memorial) A novice chase in memory of the owner of Thurles racecourse, first run in 2017. So stats are minimal, but what you’d expect.
Young horses, of six and seven, win it as favourite, or from near the front of the market. Here’s how the top four look on form:
Capuccimix (Henry De Bromhead): The grey was second at Navan in November to the future Leopardstown Arkle runner-up, Cash Back, who ran too freely in the Cheltenham Arkle, making a lot of the running until he fell two out.
Ironically, Capuccimix had won a race at Naas a week before the big meeting called Enjoy The Cheltenham Festival!
With double irony, so often seen in racing, Henry De Bromhead won the Arkle there with Put The Kettle On, owned by the One For Luck Racing Syndicate.
Before the Naas race, Cappucimix was turned over as favourite, beaten 11 lengths at Gowran Park by Chosen Mate. Those who respected that form were rewarded when Chosen Mate won the Grand Annual at Cheltenham.
Dallas Des Pictons I see BOTH Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott in the bottom half of the betting, with Paul Townend and Davy Russell just the kind of gladiatorial riders that can turn the form upside down.
Dallas Des Pictons (Elliott) drops back to the distance of his October win at Gowran and has plenty of Grade-3 experience already.
Sizing Pottsie (Jessica Harrington): Twice the price of Capuccimix, when both unseated rider behind Melon at Leopardstown in December, Cappucimix at the first and Pottsie at the last!
Pottsie had a break and then won two chases: at Fairyhouse in February and the last day at Navan, taking the prestigious Flyingbolt Novice Chase, named after Tom Dreaper’s great chaser of the Sixties.
Runner-up Cut The Mustard has 7lb with which to turn around a 12-lengths defeat. That doesn’t look feasible, even over two furlongs more this afternoon.
Zero Ten (Emmet Mullins) Cash Back beat Cappucimix seven lengths at Navan in the autumn and Zero Ten 12 lengths on the same course six weeks later, with Dunvegan third, but the placed horses were not punished that day, once Cash Back had shown who was boss.
RACE-OF-THE-DAY VERDICT: Sizing Pottsie is a big, strong chaser, already making twice the impression over fences than he did over hurdles. Can he give 6lb to Capuccimix, whose form lines up with Cash Back and Chosen Mate at their best?
Cut The Mustard is consistent but a mare against the geldings, with leeway to make up and only 4lb allowance. Dallas Des Pictons makes jumping errors but Davy Russell knows how to lift them over the fences.
BETDAQ VALUE: Capuccimix at 9.3 and Dallas Des Pictons at 11.0 were worth taking as a dual attack on Sizing Pottsie, who can always be a saver later on. One of the benefits of BETDAQ is that you have offers which are value on anything you back, because the race itself totals to a punter-friendly overall percentage.
This race was at 104% overround when I checked the prices. The 2.10 race was at 106%. Bookies total SPs yesterday included 127% (twice), 124 and 123% (twice)
BUSTER KEY TO NAP SUCCESS
⭕ THE NAP If form means anything at all today, Myth Buster (4.10) should benefit from the drop in class. His conquerors read like a who’s-who of chasing stars: successively Samcro, Easy Game and Faugheen.
Max Dynamite (Mullins-Townend) may give him most to do but he has been badly out of form on this very track in his first two tries at fences this year, and hasn’t won a hurdle race since his maiden in November, 2014.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.10 Thurles (win 50, win 15)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 7.75pts win BRACE YOURSELF
BET 7.5pts win MARY FRANCES
3.10 Thurles (bulls’-eye bets to win 50)
BET 6pts win CAPUCCIMIX
BET 5pts win DALLAS DES PICTONS
4.10 Thurles (BETDAQ 2.78 taken for a nap to win 20)
BET 11pts win MYTH BUSTER
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