SAINT-CLOUD SIGNPOST: THREE RIDERS ARE CLEAR OF THE REST: Victor Ludorum beaten. So, too, Sottsass. That suggests deep ground at Longchamp yesterday (all 10 races were run in slow time) but, again this morning, the going forecast for Saint-Cloud, which is just the other side of the river in Paris, may be misleading, at best unhelpful. Watch the races if you can and judge for yourself but the general rule is to follow the top jockeys; three of them are well clear of the rest in a mighty battle of 112 winners shared in 2020.
WHY BOUDOT IS AT HIS JOCKEY SUMMIT
Forget the form. It was heartbreaking to punters after the event to see the Longchamp forecast of ‘good to soft’ in the Press way off the mark. It turned out to be ‘very soft’ ground, and produced ‘shock’ results at around 24-1, 13-1, 12-1 and 11-1 (twice).
The form of ‘very soft’ results are best followed only in ‘very soft’ ground, so it remains to be seen whether The Summit, who made all in the Fontainebleau, is really two-and-a-half lengths better than Victor Ludorum, or whether it was futile to try to make up ground in such conditions.
Another piece of front-running took the Harcourt for Shaman, with Sottsass another unable to challenge after headway three out, but surely making a decent start on the long road back to the Arc.
Tropbeau won the fillies’ trial, the Prix de la Grotte, after Khayzaraan led and blew up in the final quarter mile. Shaman was part of a hat-trick on the day for Maxime Guyon.
He and Christophe Soumillon (two wins) handed the others a riding lesson, but it was leading jockey Pierre-Charles Boudot who left them standing in the Fontainebleau with his catch-me-if-you-can tactics.
Leading French jockeys 2020 (including yesterday): Pierre-Charles Boudot 39, Christophe Soumillon 37 and Maxime Guyon 36.
Ten-times-champion-jockey Soumillon (10 rides today), dual champion Piere-Charles Boudot (8) and reigning champ, Maxime Guyon (9), share 27 mounts on a forecast ‘very soft’ Saint-Cloud surface, with another breakfast-time start.
But, again, can you trust the Press forecast? The Racing Post carries the ‘very soft’ prediction; yet the same paper quotes trainer Mikel Delzangles about Enzel (2.00 race): ‘Unless we get more rain I think it will be tough for him.’
And Andreas Schutz says of Intello Dawn in the same race: ‘Paris missed the rain on Monday so the ground won’t be too soft for him.’
SO IS SOSOFT RIGHT FOR SAINT-CLOUD?
12.10 Saint-Cloud Ignoring the maidens, though worth watching if you can, my first betting race is this mile handicap for four-year-olds.
Be warned that the form figures for the French Flat are a mix of provincial form and top-track form, rather like point-to-point form is sometimes mixed in with returns from the major venues in England. Stick with the big-name tracks.
For instance, one of the favourites in this, Bring The Action, has won only at Machecoul in the Vendee, whereas Lady Walli is a CD winner here at Saint-Cloud over a mile on very soft, and 9.0 in the BETDAQ Sportsbook looks big if the conditions are as forecast.
Jaayiz and Prince Kerali have both won at Longchamp. Dream Life’s best form since he broke his maiden is on AW. Dancing Mountain was a Catterick sprint winner for Roger Fell.
But the danger to Lady Walli may be 14.0 bet Canada, who twice went very close at Chantilly, ridden by a 7lb claiming lady rider, and now has a senior jockey, Christophe Soumillon, in the saddle for the first time.
12.50 Saint-Cloud Pia Brandt and Maxime Guyon, a winning combo at Longchamp yesterday, are responsible for lightly-raced Habloville (offers between 7.5 and 9.0), who was beaten a short-head and a neck in a big field on the Chantilly AW, giving lumps of weight to the first two. Kylhead also won there on the Polytrack (Arifushi third).
1.25 Saint-Cloud Truco would win if the race was run over another half-mile; watch out for him after this. Glenorchy won an AW claimer at Chantilly.
But the one I like is Maxime Guyon’s mount, Sosoft (BETDAQ 5.5), second in a decent Chantilly turf handicap..
2.00 Saint-Cloud The Aga Khan’s Enzel is highly regarded after a late-season CD success here at Saint-Cloud on the heavy as a two-year-old but is it soft enough today?
Christophe Soumillon rides for Mikel Delzangles but I’m worried about the stable form; both Delzangles runners at Longchamp yesterday started at big odds and were well beaten.
I’m intrigued by Andre Fabre’s Irish-Bred Mare Australis (Pierre-Charles Boudot), a winner in the provinces, who is by Australia out of a Rainbow Quest mare, and ‘could be anything.’ BETDAQ best at 6.5.
3.40 Saint-Cloud Youmdor’s form is on AW and Fry’s is at the Lyon provincial track, so I’m choosing between Stelvio (BETDAQ 9.0) and Glory Maker (at 10.0), or backing both.
Stelvio has already been out and won this year on this Saint-Cloud course, but I fancy Maxime Guyon for Pia Brandt again.
When Glory Maker won at Compiegne for Karl Burke, he was claimed to race for Mme Brandt and had several decent runs under Guyon, including fourth to Victor Ludorum.
Glory Maker has had a run back under a lesser-known rider and been gelded since. Upped in trip today and could now make an impression.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.10 Saint-Cloud (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win LADY WALLI
BET 1.4pts win CANADA
12.50 Saint-Cloud (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win HABLOVILLE
1.25 Saint-Cloud (win 20 nap)
BET 4.4pts win SOSOFT
2.00 Saint-Cloud (win 20)
BET 3.5pts win MARE AUSTRALIS
3.40 Saint-Cloud (each to win 20)
BET 2.5pts win STELVIO
BET 2.25pts win GLORY MAKER
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