13-2 WINNER ON ANOTHER DAY OF PROFIT: Daqman was quids in again yesterday when he tipped Quacity (WON 13-2), following on his jackpot coup with 14.0 Betdaq offer The Wee Chief (WON 7-1) on Saturday.
Talking horse or stalking horse? All the while we look for value, we are fishing in waters between these two extremes: is this horse a talking horse, all hyped up, a hot-pot with unreal credentials; or is it a forgotten horse on the bare form, quietly stalking a handicap at good odds.
If we can find the one extreme – a false favourite – we have a ‘cert’ lay; if we can find the other, a horse being ignored in a handicap market but with genuine qualifications, we have a jackpot bet.
Yesterday we looked at class, which is the secret ingredient of any recipe for a handicap coup. It doesn’t have to be top class, but better class relative to the other contenders, as we saw with both The Wee Chief and Quacity.
However, as the search goes on again today, I have to say that most of my jackpot bets will be in class-3 or higher, simply because horses beneath that threshold (below C level we used to say) are not sure to reproduce their form on any given day.
Take a look at a card of results. At Lingfield on Saturday, for instance, when The Wee Chief won, there were eight last-time winners on the card; all lost. Form figures of the winners that day were 00200204.
However, six of the eight were 13-2 or shorter (two favourites) at the ‘off’, which suggests it was very much a case of ‘who else knew.’ They did not go unfancied, to say the least.
So, for hunting in low-quality racing, you are looking for a bit of class that will out – or may ‘out’ – against horses that have had their turn; and with one eye on the Betdaq market.
In fact, I always keep it on ‘tab’, as I work on the cards throughout the morning.
As has become apparent, if you follow my column, and you watch Market Movers, changes that are vital seem to occur early doors, then again mid-morning.
If you can only get a position before these ‘bites’ of the cherry, then your mouse should be well ready near the ‘off’ to hedge or lay off, or whatever needs doing to reconcile your account on that particular race.
When I saw the trade-paper forecast for Kingaroo (1.15) at Southwell, I tabbed up Betdaq in a hurry and let my boiled egg run cold: but too late – if ever there were such offers – to take anything like 8-1.
Kingaroo always deserved to be favourite (4.6 as I write), as a four-time Southwell winner, who comes to form at this time, ran well on the course last week, and has the services of the top rider in the race.
The shorter price may still be worth taking, since this is a front or van runner, and offers can be expected to be below that 4.6 and lower than his SP during the race. Back and lay.
I grabbed the 6.4 Argentine (2.45) in the hope that he’d turn out again the day after running second at Wolverhampton, when things didn’t drop right for him.
I base my decision on his CV, which shows that he’s run several races together in a short space of time: in June 2009, his form figures in a hectic three-week spell were 111231.
He’s had two January wins at Southwell in the last three years and, though not well rated in this race, seems to be returning to his winning form, which was 17lb higher than today.
The Racing Post forecast is also well wrong about Joe Le Taxi (3.45): they went 12-1 a Mark Johnston globetrotter, dropped to the bottom of the handicap, and well drawn for Martin Lane to drag-race the field today.
He’d just about win this on his Dundalk run alone in a much better handicap towards the end of last month and 5.7 on Betdaq this morning is much more like it, receiving almost a stone from the fancied horses.
Donald McCain rarely ventures to Wolverhampton but wants to capitalize on Kie’s new-found NH front-running tactics: they should serve him well in the 4.00 small-field handicap. The rest of the card is spoiled by the low turn-out.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5.5pts win KINGAROO (1.15 Southwell)
BET 3.7pts win ARGENTINE (2.45 Southwell)
BET 4.2pts win (nap) JOE LE TAXI (3.45 Southwell)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2pt win double Joe Le Taxi (3.45 Southwell) and Kie (4.00 Wolverhampton)
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