🆕 THE STRIKER: previews Thursday’s Premier League matches between BURNLEY v WATFORD, SOUTHAMPTON v ARSENAL and CHELSEA v MANCHESTER CITY with recommended BETDAQ bets and extended match stats. The Striker has made a superb start since it began.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
BURNLEY V WATFORD
6pm We have three exceptionally interesting fixtures this evening. Today is my highlight of the midweek fixture list. Watford must be starting to feel the heat looking at the situation at the bottom of the table, but they can’t change their process. xG puts them in mid-table and they have to trust they will stay up. They just have to take their chances in truth, they are creating enough and are pretty much in line with xG for goals conceded away from home.
Burnley could only record an xG of 0.03 against City on Monday which is remarkably low but in fairness you can probably write off those type of games for the likes of Burnley – getting close to City would be a shock. Watford were on top in their first game back against Leicester, but it was a tight affair for most of it. They will be hoping their away form improves (only won twice from 15 games) and I’m not happy to back a side with those stats at 2.5 even allowing for the behind closed doors element. We’ve seen a lot of very quiet games behind closed doors in the Premier League and I think this will be another as neither side really press forward until late in the second half. Under 2.5 goals at 1.72 makes a lot of appeal.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.72 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQburwat
MATCH STATS
- Burnley have won four of their seven Premier League matches against Watford (D1 L2), winning 3-0 earlier this season at Vicarage Road.
- Watford are looking to win consecutive away league visits to Burnley for the first time since April 2004, when they did so in the second tier.
- Burnley have played 12 midweek (Tuesday-Thursday) Premier League home games, with the Clarets netting exactly once each time. They were unbeaten in their first seven such games (W4 D3), but have since lost the last five in a row.
- Watford have won only one of their 20 midweek (Tuesday-Thursday) Premier League away games (D3 L16), with that victory coming at Arsenal in January 2017.
- Watford have won just one of their last eight Premier League games (D3 L4), beating Liverpool 3-0 in February. The Hornets’ six points earned in these eight matches is as many as they’d won in their first two Premier League games of 2020 (W2).
- Burnley have won one of their last 10 league games played on a Thursday (D3 L6), beating Wolves 2-1 on Boxing Day in 2002. In the top-flight, their last win on a Thursday was against Manchester United on Boxing Day in 1963, winning 6-1 at Turf Moor.
- Having gone 19 Premier League games without a draw at Turf Moor (W9 L10), two of Burnley’s last three home league games have ended level (W1).
- Excluding penalties, no side have scored fewer goals from set-piece situations in the Premier League this season than Watford (3), with Craig Dawson’s late leveller against Leicester last time out the Hornets’ first league goal from a corner this season.
- Watford manager Nigel Pearson has won each of his last three away league matches against Burnley, winning with Leicester City in 2012-13, 2013-14 and 2014-15.
- Burnley striker Chris Wood has scored seven Premier League goals at Turf Moor this season, four more than any other Clarets player. Wood scored 14 goals in 53 league appearances for current Watford manager Nigel Pearson between 2013 and 2014 at Leicester City.
SOUTHAMPTON V ARSENAL
6pm Arsenal away, lay. Job done? If only it was that easy! The market is starting to acknowledge just how bad Arsenal have been this season, and Southampton are favourites here. That being said, Southampton have been very poor at home this season and most of their points and good performances have came away from home. They are bottom of the table on home form, but 6th away from home. Arsenal drop to 14th on xG and while the football pundits are saying they’re having a bad season in midtable – the bare numbers say it’s even worse than midtable.
Southampton have consistently under-performed at home on xG – they have only scored 16 goals but created nearly 22 and conceded 31 but only gave away an xG of 24. While Arsenal have been terrible at the back away from home, it has actually been going forward where most of the problems have come from. They’ve only scored 15 away goals in 15 games, winning two games. The Arsenal prices might be getting bigger away from home, but they still offer significant value laying them and I’m happy to do so again at 2.82.
The Striker Says:
Four points lay (liability) Arsenal at 2.82 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQsouars
MATCH STATS
- Southampton have won three of their last five Premier League home games against Arsenal (D1 L1), more than they had in their previous 12 against them at the Dell/St Mary’s (W2 D5 L5).
- Arsenal have lost just one of their last eight Premier League meetings with Southampton (W4 D3), though it was in this exact fixture last season in Ralph Hasenhüttl’s first home game in charge of Saints.
- Only against Manchester United (82) have Southampton conceded more Premier League goals than they have versus Arsenal (76).
- This is Arsenal’s third Premier League match played on Thursday this season, all of them against clubs from the south coast. The Gunners lost at home to Brighton in December, before drawing at Bournemouth later that month in Mikel Arteta’s first game in charge.
- Southampton have lost more Premier League home games than any other side in 2019-20 (9). Only in 1993-94 (10) have they lost more at home in a single Premier League campaign.
- Southampton are yet to draw a Premier League game in 2020, with Saints winning five and losing five of their 10 matches. Southampton have kept a clean sheet in four of those five victories, while they’ve conceded at least twice in four of the five defeats.
- Having been on an 11-game unbeaten run away from home in all competitions since the start of December, Arsenal have lost each of their last two on the road.
- Arsenal have lost 10 points from winning positions in their 12 Premier League games under Mikel Arteta – as many as they’d lost in their previous 36 combined under Fredrik Ljungberg and Unai Emery.
- Southampton’s leading goalscorer this season Danny Ings has scored three goals in his last two Premier League appearances against Arsenal. The striker has only found the net more often against Aston Villa and Everton (4 each) in the competition.
- Arsenal captain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored 49 Premier League goals, and a goal here will see him become the sixth fastest player to reach 50 in the competition (78 games). However, he’s failed to score in any of his last three appearances, with his goalless run standing at 314 minutes (10 shots attempted).
CHELSEA V MANCHESTER CITY
8.15pm What a way to finish the evening! This should be a cracking fixture, and City have returned from lockdown in excellent form. It makes sense that they are better behind closed doors as they just have the pure class that other teams are lacking. When they relax and put passes together they just play teams off the pitch. Chelsea will pose a tougher challenge than Arsenal and Burnley, and it will be interesting to see how they fare. I feel they should win though.
Chelsea would have been delighted with events so far, they returned with a win and all the others challenging for a Top Four finish dropped points. Chelsea may not have scored many goals on paper at home this season, but they have an impressive xG – they’ve created nearly 35 goals, but only scored 22. That’s quite a difference! City are pretty much in line with xG and we know how good they are. I can see Chelsea scoring here and BTTS looks the best bet at 1.7. It’s hard to see anything but an attacking game, but as we have seen with games behind closed doors we do need that spark to kick things off – and then the goals come. Luckily City are so attacking we should get that spark and we will see a very open and good game here. Which is welcome after Tuesday’s borefest!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.7 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQchemci
MATCH STATS
- Chelsea have alternated between defeat and victory in their last four Premier League home games against Man City, winning this exact fixture 2-0 last season.
- Man City have won six of their last nine Premier League meetings with Chelsea (L3), as many as they had in their previous 34 against them (W6 D7 L21).
- Chelsea have kept just one clean sheet in their last 11 Premier League meetings with Man City, though it was in this exact fixture last season (2-0).
- Man City lost their last Premier League game in London (0-2 vs Tottenham). They’ve not lost consecutive games in the capital since December 2015, the first defeat of which also came against Spurs.
- Manchester City have won 18 of their last 20 midweek Premier League matches (Tuesday-Thursday), losing the other two against Leicester and Newcastle in 2018-19.
- Chelsea had 74% possession in their 2-1 win away at Aston Villa, the 29th time this season they have had the majority of possession in a Premier League game, more than any other side.
- Chelsea manager Frank Lampard has won 15 of his first 30 Premier League matches and is only the fifth Englishman of the 69 to have managed at least 30 games to have won at least half of his first 30 games, and first since Tim Sherwood in April 2015.
- Manchester City’s Sergio Agüero has scored 10 goals in his last nine appearances against Chelsea in all competitions, including netting two hat-tricks in that run. In six Premier League games at Stamford Bridge, Agüero has been involved in seven goals (5 goals, 2 assists).
- Chelsea striker Olivier Giroud is looking to score in three consecutive Premier League appearances for the first time since January 2017, when he played for Arsenal. Giroud has scored in his last three Premier League starts against Man City, although they came between January 2015 and May 2016.
- Man City forward Gabriel Jesus has scored six goals and assisted four more in 16 Premier League appearances in London, averaging a goal or assist every 74 minutes in the capital. He has either scored or assisted in seven of his eight starts in London.
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