THE STRIKER: previews Thursday’s Premier League games between BOURNEMOUTH v TOTTENHAM, EVERTON v SOUTHAMPTON and ASTON VILLA v MAN U – all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
BOURNEMOUTH V TOTTENHAM
6pm Another very interesting evening in the Premier League! Spurs managed to notch up another win on Monday night with a 1-0 win against Everton. There wasn’t much between the sides and from a Spurs point of view, it was good to see them grind out a win in a close game. They haven’t done that much this season. They have an excellent chance of recording back-to-back wins for the first time in a while here against a Bournemouth side woefully out of form.
Bournemouth had a crazy game last time out against Manchester United in a game with seven goals. The hard truth is though they conceded five and have now lost their last five. They have had to play Liverpool, Wolves and Manchester United in that run and although they have been losing – apart from Wolves they have been creating chances. At the same time, they have been too open at the back. A Spurs back at 1.74 is tempting but this game screams goals to me and over 2.5 goals is 1.85. That looks very good value – Bournemouth are playing an open game at the moment and Spurs aren’t reliable at the back either. I expect a high scoring affair.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.85 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQboutot
MATCH STATS
- Bournemouth have lost seven of their nine Premier League meetings with Spurs (W1 D1), though that one victory did come in this exact fixture last season courtesy of Nathan Ake’s 90th minute winner.
- Tottenham won 3-2 in the reverse fixture, conceding as many goals in that game as they had in their previous seven combined in the Premier League against Bournemouth.
- Bournemouth have lost seven of their last eight Premier League games, including each of their last five in a row. They’ve shipped 21 goals in these eight games, netting just seven.
- Bournemouth have conceded 59 Premier League goals this season and could become the first side to concede at least 60 in five consecutive campaigns in the competition.
- Bournemouth have lost 20 Premier League games this season, more than they have in any of their five campaigns in the competition. Seven of these defeats have been at home, with the Cherries only losing more at the Vitality Stadium in their debut season in the competition in 2015-16 (9).
- Tottenham have picked up just 15 points from their 16 Premier League games on the road this season (W3 D6 L7), with only Aston Villa (0) keeping fewer clean sheets on the road than Spurs (1).
- Having been unbeaten in their first 12 Premier League games played on Thursdays (W7 D5), Tottenham lost their last such match, going down 1-3 against Sheffield United last week.
- Tottenham manager José Mourinho has never lost a Premier League away game against a side starting the day in the relegation zone, with the Portuguese winning 18 and drawing six of his 24 such games.
- Tottenham’s Harry Kane has scored seven goals in seven Premier League games against Bournemouth, though six of these came in his first three appearances against them.
- Bournemouth’s Josh King – who scored and assisted for the Cherries last time out against Manchester United – is looking to score in consecutive Premier League games for the first time since January 2019.
EVERTON V SOUTHAMPTON
6pm Southampton pulled a win over Manchester City from the hat in their last fixture. That result came from nowhere but as xG shows, they were exceptionally unlucky. Manchester City won 3.53 to 0.70 on xG! That fact that City didn’t score is just one of those things and I won’t be reading too much into that Southampton win. Everton lost a very tight game against Spurs and looking at xG there; a draw would have been a fair result. Prior to that they had won their last two, and are in reasonably good form.
Everton’s numbers are impressive this season, especially since Carlo Ancelotti took over. Southampton have been a much better side away from home compared to at home this season, and although the behind closed doors element changes things a little you only have to look at their recent games to see they like playing away from home. Everton are a little short at 2.2 and they are reasonably tight at home so I expect a close game. The draw is worth a small bet at 3.6 given Southampton’s away form.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.6 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQevesou
MATCH STATS
- Everton are looking to achieve the league double over Southampton for the first time since the 2001-02 campaign, following their 2-1 win at St Mary’s earlier this season.
- Southampton have won just one of their 20 Premier League away games against Everton (D5 L14) and are winless in their last 14 at Goodison Park since a 2-0 win in November 1997.
- Everton are unbeaten in nine Premier League home games (W5 D4), last having a longer unbeaten run at Goodison Park between April and December 2016 (11 games).
- Southampton have won three of their last four Premier League matches (L1), winning the last two in a row. Saints last won three consecutive matches in the competition in May 2016 under Ronald Koeman (4 wins).
- Southampton have scored 25 goals from outside the area in the Premier League in the last two seasons (11 in 2019-20 & 14 in 2018-19); as many as they’d netted between 2013-14 and 2017-18.
- Everton have only lost three of their last 42 home Premier League games against teams starting the day below them in the table (W31 D8), although two of those losses have come this season (vs Sheffield United and Norwich City).
- Everton’s Gylfi Sigurdsson has scored five Premier League goals against Southampton – against no side does he have more in the competition. His two goals against them for Everton have come in defeats at St Mary’s.
- Southampton’s Danny Ings has scored in four different Premier League games against Everton but hasn’t been on the winning side in any of them (D1 L3). Only three players have scored in more different Premier League games against an opponent without winning – Alan Shearer v Liverpool (7), Teddy Sheringham v Chelsea (6) and Mark Viduka v Manchester United (5).
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored more Premier League goals at home than any other Everton player this season (7 goals in 14 apps), with his tally of seven as many as he’d netted at Goodison Park in his previous three campaigns combined (7 goals in 40 apps).
- Southampton’s Che Adams scored the winner against Manchester City last time out (1-0), which was his first league goal in 456 days, last netting against Leeds United in the Championship in April 2019. Adams last scored in consecutive league appearances in February 2019 (a run of 6).
ASTON VILLA V MANCHESTER UNITED
8.15pm Villa are getting more desperate as each passing matchday goes up and they really need a win soon. Unfortunately for them, they meet an in-form Manchester United side here and they’ve also had to play Chelsea, Wolves and Liverpool recently. They performed reasonably well against Liverpool last time out, but it’s hard to read too much into that given Liverpool have been celebrating their title win. United’s xG numbers have been impressive lately, and if they turn up in the same form tonight they will win.
United are trading 1.37 and that price is fair considering they are in great form and Villa are in the bottom three. Villa are battling hard to stay up, but they just don’t have the quality in their squad. Given how much action we’ve seen in United’s recent games and their xG numbers, I really like over 2.5 goals here at 1.75 which looks cracking value. An early United goal could see the floodgates open with Villa having to chase the game. A draw for Villa would be a good result, but it’s getting to the stage of the season when they have to go chasing games and points. We could see a very open game here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQastmun
MATCH STATS
- Aston Villa have won just one of their last 42 Premier League meetings with Manchester United (D11 L30), with that victory coming at Old Trafford in December 2009 (1-0).
- Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 20 Premier League away games against Aston Villa (W13 D7), since a 1-3 loss on the opening day of the 1995-96 season. It’s the longest unbeaten away run one team has had against another in top-flight history.
- Aston Villa have picked up just two points in their last nine Premier League matches (D2 L7), finding the net just five times in that run.
- Manchester United are looking to become the first team in Premier League history to win four consecutive matches by a margin of 3+ goals.
- Manchester United are unbeaten in nine Premier League games (W6 D3), the longest current run in the competition. Indeed, only Liverpool (27) and Wolves (11) have had longer unbeaten runs this term.
- Aston Villa have won just one of their last 27 Premier League matches against sides starting the day in the top half of the league (D4 L22), a 2-0 win over Everton in August 2019.
- Aston Villa’s 2-0 defeat at Liverpool was the 20th time this season the Villans had shipped two or more goals in a Premier League game – no side has done so more often in 2019-20 (level with Norwich and West Ham).
- Bruno Fernandes has already been involved in 11 goals in his nine Premier League matches. In Premier League history, only five players have had as many as 12 goal involvements in their first 10 games in the competition – Mick Quinn (13), Alan Shearer, Kevin Phillips, Sergio Agüero and Papiss Cissé (all 12).
- Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes has both scored and assisted five Premier League goals (6 goals, 5 assists), reaching both figures in just nine appearances, a Premier League record. The previous record was 10 games, which Andrey Arshavin achieved in May 2009.
- Mason Greenwood has scored 15 goals in all competitions for Manchester United this season – the only teenagers to score more goals for the Red Devils in a season are George Best in 1965-66, Brian Kidd in 1967-68 and Wayne Rooney in 2004-05 (all 17 goals).
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