THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s two Premier League games. Bournemouth v Southampton and Tottenham v Leicester both with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
BOURNEMOUTH V SOUTHAMPTON
2pm All eyes will be on the FA Cup semi-final today meaning we have shorter Premier League fixture list, but this is a huge game for Bournemouth and we also have a huge game between Spurs and Leicester later. So we have a fascinating day ahead. Southampton recorded their third draw in a row midweek when drawing 1-1 with Brighton. They battered them though, recording an xG of 2.53 and although the headline was they stopped United from winning on Monday; they actually won the game marginally on xG – a draw was a fair result but they performed very well.
Bournemouth performed well against Manchester City midweek too; although they were always expected to lose. They held City to an xG of only 0.59 – nobody has held City to that in a while! Perhaps City had one eye on their FA Cup semi-final but it was a solid performance nonetheless. I expect a close game here – I don’t think anyone would think differently. But I just can’t have Bournemouth at 2.5 – that looks criminally short. Southampton are in the top five on away form this season and they arrive here unbeaten in five with good xG numbers (apart from the shock City win) and I just have to lay Bournemouth at the odds. It’s an excellent value lay.
The Striker Says:
Four points lay (liability) Bournemouth at 2.5 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQbousou
MATCH STATS
- Bournemouth are looking to achieve their first ever league double against Southampton, in what is the 13th different campaign in which they’ve met.
- Four of the last six Premier League meetings between Bournemouth and Southampton have ended level, with the Cherries winning 3-1 at St Mary’s this season, and Saints winning 2-1 at home in April 2018.
- No side has kept fewer clean sheets in the Premier League this season than Bournemouth (5). Meanwhile, Southampton have both scored and conceded in 21 different Premier League games this season – only Tottenham (24) and Arsenal (22) have had more.
- Southampton have earned 28 points on the road in the Premier League this season, they’ve never earned more on the road in a single top-flight campaign in their history (also 28 in 1983-84).
- Bournemouth have lost 21 Premier League games this season, their worst tally of losses in a league season since 2007-08, when they lost 22 games in League One.
- Bournemouth have won just one of their last 11 Premier League games (D2 L8), though it was in their last home match in the competition (4-1 v Leicester).
- Bournemouth have never lost their final home match in any of their four previous Premier League campaigns (W3 D1), winning the last three in a row.
- Southampton have won their final away league game in four of the last six Premier League seasons (L2), though they did lose against West Ham in their final game on the road last term (0-3).
- Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson has had a hand in four goals in his last two Premier League games against Southampton, scoring three and assisting one more.
- Danny Ings has scored 11 away goals in the Premier League this season – only Matt Le Tissier (12 in 1993-94) has scored more on the road for Southampton in a single campaign in the competition.
TOTTENHAM V LEICESTER
4pm What a fixture. It might not have been what Spurs would have wanted but they can still get a Europa League spot and Leicester are fighting tooth and nail with Chelsea and Manchester United for a Top Four finish. A loss here would leave Leicester is a very poor position, a point behind Chelsea and level with United having played a game more. They do play United on the last day so all won’t have been lost if they lose here, but it would be a big blow and a win would be a massive boost. They will fancy their chances too against a Spurs side who haven’t been impressive this season.
Although Spurs haven’t been themselves this season, they arrive into this fixture unbeaten in four with three wins. They would have been expected to beat Newcastle but they grinded out a win here against Everton and beat Arsenal 2-1 in what was a very fair result. They will be happier to have this fixture at home, even allowing for the behind closed doors element. It’s fair to say that Leicester have been very out of sorts since lockdown, bar wins against Sheffield United and Crystal Palace they have been poor and while I don’t fancy them today, I like the draw price at 3.5. Spurs are playing well, but they aren’t creating a huge amount and I can easily see a 0-0 or 1-1 draw here. The draw looks over priced at 3.5 and worth a small bet.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.5 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQtotlei
MATCH STATS
- Tottenham have lost just one of their last eight home league games against Leicester (W5 D2), losing 0-1 at White Hart Lane in January 2016.
- Leicester are looking to complete their first league double over Tottenham since 1998-99, following their 2-1 victory at the King Power Stadium earlier this season.
- There have been 28 goals scored in the last six Premier League meetings between Tottenham and Leicester, at an average of 4.7 per game.
- Tottenham are looking to secure four consecutive home league wins for the first time at their new stadium. They last did so in the Premier League in December 2018, at Wembley.
- Just five of the 46 Premier League goals Tottenham have conceded this season have come from set piece situations (excl. penalties), the lowest ratio in the division (11%).
- Leicester are winless in their last seven Premier League away games (D3 L4); it’s their longest run without a win on the road since a run of 15 between May 2016 February 2017.
- Leicester haven’t won their final away league game in any of their last 11 Premier League campaigns (D3 L8), since beating Blackburn 4-2 in 1996-97.
- Tottenham’s Harry Kane has scored 14 goals in 13 games against Leicester in all competitions, more than he’s scored against any other opponent in his career.
- Tottenham’s Son Heung-min has been involved in nine goals in his last 10 Premier League games (6 goals, 3 assists). The South Korean has been involved in half of Spurs’ 10 league goals since the restart (2 goals, 3 assists).
- Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has been directly involved in eight goals in his last nine Premier League games against Spurs (5 goals, 3 assists), with four of his five goals against them coming away from home.
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