SERIE A THURSDAY: Our new European football tipster The Ultra is in terrific form and now previews Thursday’s Serie A matches between UDINESE V JUVENTUS and LAZIO V CAGLIARI, both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
UDINESE V JUVENTUS
6.30pm We have two cracking Serie A games to enjoy on Thursday evening and we start with Udinese hosting Juventus. The season is drawing to a close as each Matchday passes and Juventus more or less have the title wrapped up. I think their plan will be to win it mathematically as quickly as possible so that they can focus on the Champions League. Serie A will be the last league to finish before the Champions League starts, and surely they will want to rest players in the final domestic fixtures.
Although Juventus have been dominant in Serie A this season, their xG numbers aren’t that impressive. One suspects they will struggle against the bigger sides in Europe in August but for now, they should beat this Udinese side. Udinese have only netted 15 goals in their 17 home games this season, and although xG says they are better than their bare position – they are still in 16th and they don’t create enough chances. Udinese have created an xG of 0.79, 1.05 and 0.85 in their last three, while Juve have created 3.01, 2.28 and 1.95 despite two of those games only finishing a draw. Juventus will easily out-score this Udinese side and they are very much worth backing at 1.63.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Juventus to beat Udinese at 1.63 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQUdiJuv
LAZIO V CAGLIARI
8.45pm Lazio are already more or less certain of a Top Four finish bar amazing scenes, but they’ve been on a very poor run lately and need to steady their ship. Luckily for them they meet a Cagliari side who haven’t won in their last six. Lazio are trading 1.51 tonight and that looks a little short for a side who haven’t won in their last five. Looking at the xG numbers doesn’t change anything for Lazio either, and all five were very fair results. Cagliari haven’t got the winning touch, but they’ve had four draws from their last six and their games don’t have many chances.
The Lazio lay is a tempting bet at 1.51, but I’m very surprised to see under 2.5 goals as big as 2.64. Unders has only lost once in Cagliari’s last six and they don’t create many chances at all. Their most recent xG numbers are: 0.34, 0.57, 1.63, 0.91, 0.34 and 1.18. Not impressive. Lazio need a win under their belt here, but they aren’t exactly creating chances either. They had to play Juventus in their last fixture but their last three xG’s are: 1.28, 0.80 and 0.54. Unders looks a good value play to me.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.64 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLazCag
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