SERIE A SATURDAY: Our new European football tipster The Ultra is in terrific form and now previews Saturday’s Serie A games between BRESCIA v PARMA, GENOA v INTER MILAN, and NAPOLI v SASSUOLO all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
BRESCIA V PARMA
4.15pm We have another fascinating day of Serie A action on Saturday. We start with Brescia hosting Parma as time has ran out for Brescia. Their 3-1 loss to Lecce during the week as given Lecce a chance at staying up but relegated Brescia. It’s often hard to know what type of performance you get from teams who have gone down – sometimes the pressure goes and they play well, but as we have seen with Norwich in the Premier League this season most times teams have no confidence and continue losing.
The reality for Brescia is that they have been very poor and they haven’t played well enough to save themselves after lockdown. Even with their recent 2-1 win over SPAL, who sit last, they could only create an xG of 0.96 and were very lucky to win with SPAL returning an xG of 1.75. They have conceded a lot of goals to the stronger teams and while Parma are only a mid-table side, they should get the job done here and are worth backing at odds against. It has to be noted that Parma have been poor away from home this season, however with the behind closed doors element helping clubs away and Brescia playing at a poor level, the away win is worth a small investment – but only minimum stakes.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Parma to beat Brescia at 2.12 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBrePar
GENOA V INTER MILAN
6.30pm This is a big game for Genoa as they sit just outside the relegation zone. They have the comfort of a four point gap ahead of Lecce, but how they would dearly love to put the issue to bed. Unfortunately for them, I can’t see it happening in this fixture. Inter Milan have been excellent this season, and while they don’t have much to play for here with a Top Four spot already in the bag, they can easily outclass this Genoa side and are worth backing at 1.69.
Juventus have obviously been excellent this season, but xG actually puts Inter Milan top of the table. Perhaps that reflects how poor in terms of xG Juventus have been this season, but it’s also a sign of how good Inter have been performing. Genoa have only managed to score 21 goals in 17 home games, with xG only increasing that by two. While Inter have scored 36 in 17 away games – bigger than their xG but still impressive numbers. They were very unfortunate to only draw 0-0 with Fiorentina in their last fixture as they battered them creating an xG of 2.76. They can get back to winning ways here and 1.69 is the bet of the day.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Inter Milan to beat Genoa at 1.69 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQGenInt
NAPOLI V SASSUOLO
8.45pm We finish the action with Napoli hosting Sassuolo in a must win game for Napoli. They come into the game in 7th position and need to keep winning and hope AC Milan drop points somewhere. A 6th place finish gets them into Europe next season, albeit only the Europa League after they had some good performances in the Champions League this season – they actually managed a win here against Liverpool and a draw at Anfield.
Both sides arrive into this fixture off the back of a loss, with Napoli losing 2-1 to Parma and Sassuolo losing by the same score to AC Milan. Sassuolo aren’t far away from Napoli in the table and I think the home win is too short here at 1.61. Clearly there is an element of ‘need to win’ priced into that. Napoli have been playing ok football lately, but nothing massively impressive looking at their xG numbers. You can easily say the same about Sassuolo and I see the value play being a Napoli lay here at the odds. I expect Sassuolo to give a decent account of themselves and I’m happy with a small Napoli lay at 1.61.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Napoli at 1.61 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQNapSas
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