STILL ON 11 WINNING NAPS BUT POET SCORES AGAIN FOR DAQMAN: Ayr Poet, who launched Daqman’s sequence of 11 winning naps on September 1, came to his rescue yesterday and covered most of the expenses as a 5-4 winner (2-1 taken on BETDAQ) at Hamilton.
SEARCH IS ON FOR VALUE IN THE BIG THREE LISTOWEL HANDICAPS: There are six meetings today, with Daqman hoping to land a value winner from one of the big Listowel races this week: the Lartigue Hurdle today, the Kerry National on Wednesday and the Ladbrokes Handicap on Friday. In England the NAP is reserved for the 3.05 at Leicester.
LUCKY START TO THE WEEK?
⭕ 2.55 Hamilton The meeting here yesterday was paused when the stewards and jockeys checked a patch of ground on the straight course. Racing continued without incident but there is still give in the ground – officially good to soft.
That might count against Josiebond who was a good to firm Musselburgh winner last time out – her first win in 17 starts and over a longer seven furlong trip.
There’s also a big ground question mark over likely BETDAQ favourite Harry’s Ridge who remains a maiden after 11 starts and was disappointing on his only previous start on good to soft.
Lucky Beggar is having his 96th career start but the 10-year-old is still competitive and likes the cut in the ground. He was fifth in this same race last year but is now 10lb further down in the weights and looks a good win and place play.
INDIAN TO HIT RIGHT SOUNDS AGAIN
⭕ 3.05 Leicester Indian Sounds is a warm favourite for this class 3 five furlong handicap and should again account for North Wind.
The pair were split by four lengths at Beverley last week when first and second and the 5lb penalty for the winner Indian Sounds is unlikely to reverse that form considering the Paul Midgeley trained runner looked value for more than four lengths.
North Wind has only managed one career win from 19 and that was when he was trained by Aidan O’Brien and a bigger danger could come from the longer priced Dark Shot who has run himself back into form and looks on a good mark compared to some of his old form.
CAN ‘YAFORD’ A BIG-RACE BET?
⭕ 3.10 Listowel Follow the festival trail! A win, a place or a turnaround in form from the Galway Festival provides the winner of the Lartigue Handicap Hurdle at the Listowel Festival today 66% of the time.
History reveals that six of the last nine winners of this followed up from Galway, four times from Flat races there, as follows:
2017 Galway (Flat) handicap sixth landed hurdles double, then this.
2016 Galway (Flat) handicap winner came on to score 11 lengths.
2015 Galway (Flat-race) runner-up landed a Latigue Hurdle gamble.
2014 Galway runner-up won this Listowel race by five lengths.
2013 Galway (Flat-race) runner-up landed big gamble in this hurdle.
2011 Galway winner dropped back in trip and won this cosily.
Today’s race could hinge on the 1-2-3-4 in a classy novice hurdle at Galway when Guinevere beat Politicise a length, with Saint d’Oroux two-and-a-half lengths third and Bear Claws a head further back, fourth.
The only winner from among them since that day is Bear Claws (stayed on strongly) in a novice hurdle at Tramore.
Bear Claws (6lb), Politicise (6lb) and Saint d’Oroux (3lb) are all better off with Guinevere in the handicap today, but Bear Claws must be marked up for scoring since.
Yafordadoe has also won over hurdles after a Flat-handicap experience at Galway best forgotten (dropped to rear; wide into straight; fifth).
Swelltime ran better than the final position suggests in a stayers’ handicap on the Flat at Galway but was slammed 12 lengths, albeit giving away weight, by Yafordadoe at Ballinrobe the last day.
Red Gerry, well behind Guinevere and Co at Galway, broke his maiden over hurdles impressively at Punchestown earlier this month, and he was immediately earmarked for this Lartigue.
Not Galway form, but collateral to it, is the Cork maiden hurdle won by Anina Bunina last month from Guinevere and Marmolata, who subsequently ran second to Bear Claws at Tramore.
Donagh Meyler, who won it for Guinevere’s trainer last year, prefers Cafe Con Leche, visored for the first time but winner only on heavy ground.
Verdict: Gavin Cromwell has booked Paul Townend for Yafordadoe (7.4 offers), who goes for a hat-trick here. He would be my sole choice on softish ground but today at Listowel is ‘good, watered.’
My alternative is Anna Bunina (at around 10.0), also going for a hat-trick. She slammed Guinevere and Marmolata 11 lengths and the same at Cork in July and acts on any going..
KESARINA TO STRIKE FOR SIR MICHAEL
⭕ 7.00 Wolverhampton Kesarina looks a solid favourite here for Sir Michael Stoute who is 4 from 6 in handicaps at the track.
She comes into this as a ‘winner’ without a penalty in that she was only pipped by a neck at Beverley and was trying to give the winner Let Her Loose 7lb.
She is progressive and should make a winning start on the all-weather.
The James Fanshawe trained Durrell continues to drop down the weights but for a good reason. He’s yet to build on his early career form and is up again in trip tonight.
A bigger danger may come from Unit Of Assessment who is 1-1 at Wolverhampton and was denied a clear run when third at Kempton last time out.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.55 Hamilton (both bets to win 10)
BET 1.2pts win and 4.5pts place LUCKY BEGGAR
3.05 Leicester
BET 8.0pts win (nap) INDIAN SOUNDS
3.10 Listowel (win 30)
BET 4.75pts win YAFORDADOE
BET 3pts win ANNA BUNINA
7.00 Wolverhampton (won 10)
BET 5.8pts win KESARINA
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro.. Or just 10p to win!
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
